Mario Mergola’s NFL Betting Picks for Week 4 (2020)
I wrote about this in my full Week 3 column, but it’s downright amazing how accurate the spreads and over-under point totals have been through the first few weeks of the season. Believe-it-or-not, this is not common.
The numbers shown are not designed to be right. They are designed to catch the largest amount of fish in the ocean. As we will soon see, it takes some uncomfortable risks to navigate these dangerous waters.
The previous picks given in this BettingPros weekly column are 6-6 on the season. The rest of my against-the-spread picks and historical record can be found at Sporfolio.com.
Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook
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Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins UNDER 54.5 (-115)
If we ever needed proof that betting on a football game is not for the faint of heart, then we should look no further than betting against quarterback Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks.
In fairness, we’re not betting against Wilson, per se. Instead, we’re betting against Wilson single-handedly leading his team to carry the bulk of the over-under. It’s possible — Wilson is that good and on that hot of a streak — but it isn’t probable that both he and the Miami Dolphins explode.
Seattle’s defense ranks dead last in yards allowed, but there’s a two-part reason behind this. The first is obvious and valid for Sunday: the Seahawks have large leads and allow ‘garbage yards’ as a result. The second, however, is simply based on the level of competition. Seattle has faced the offenses of Atlanta, New England, and Dallas. All three are in the top-eight for yards gained.
Miami ranks 26th.
Without the Dolphins pushing the Seahawks’ offense, both ceilings are relatively capped. Even if Seattle does pull away eventually, Miami hasn’t shown the ability to move the ball on a consistent basis.
Prediction: Seahawks/Dolphins UNDER 54.5 (-115)
Cleveland Browns +4.5 (-110) at Dallas Cowboys
If I’m nervous to bet against the aforementioned Russell Wilson, then I am terrified to bet on quarterback Baker Mayfield. Again, this is not for the faint of heart.
The good news is that we also aren’t betting on Mayfield, per se. Whether you want to call this “similarities†or “a system,†this is where we find value in picks.
The Dallas Cowboys have the league’s best offense in yards, but it will face a Cleveland Browns defense that quietly ranks ninth in the league in yards allowed. The Browns may not outright stop the Cowboys, but they can slow them down.
More importantly, they can keep the game close enough to stay within the spread.
Cleveland’s offense is a risk to stall because of the aforementioned Mayfield, but the Browns have wisely kept the ball out of his hands. Cleveland has the fifth-most rushing attempts and thrown the third-fewest passes in the league, and the team is 2-1.
We also can’t overlook that Dallas is 1-2, almost 0-3 had the Falcons not fallen apart and is favored by more than a field goal worth of points.
Prediction: Cleveland Browns +4.5 (-110)
Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears OVER 43 (-110)
At the risk of buying too heavily into quarterback Nick Foles, I am about to buy heavily into quarterback Nick Foles.
I don’t always do it. I generally write about how Foles is more likely to fail than succeed over a long stretch of time, but it doesn’t mean that he is completely devoid of value. The key is picking-and-choosing where his value is worth the risk.
Sunday’s game between the Chicago Bears and Indianapolis Colts presents the value we need in a pick because we aren’t only asking Foles to deliver, we’re asking the Colts to do their part, as well.
Indianapolis’ numbers are a bit inflated after beating up on the lowly Jets, but we’re still looking at the 12th-ranked offense in yards and a team that has scored at least 20 points in each of the first three games. If 20 points is the baseline and Chicago can contribute offensively — which is a more reasonable expectation after the Bears just reached season-highs in yards and points — then we have the right setup to clear the low point total.
Prediction: Colts/Bears OVER 43 (-110)
Los Angeles Chargers +7 (-115) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
One of my favorite setups is when a team has played well against weak competition and then faces a team many don’t realize is quietly good.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have beaten the Panthers and Broncos — who combine for a 2-5 record.
The Los Angeles Chargers — who rank in the top-eight for both yards gained and yards allowed — are quietly good.
The spread, itself, is too large in this game. It assumes that Los Angeles’ loss to the Panthers and Tampa Bay’s win over the Broncos tells the full story of both teams. It’s not true.
The Buccaneers give the appearance of a dangerous offense because of their weapons, but they have gained the eighth-fewest yards in the league. Their defense has done an admirable job — fourth-fewest yards allowed — but again, the level-of-competition has been questionable, at best.
The Chargers have a realistic chance to pull off the ‘upset’ as they are one of the more complete teams in the league — and rookie quarterback Justin Herbert is arguably a big improvement over the original starter, Tyrod Taylor — but I’m taking the points anyway in a close, probably low-scoring game.
Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers +7 (-115)
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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros, as well as the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola. He has also been one of the industry leaders in NFL against-the-spread picks over the last 6 years.