Mario Mergola’s NFL Betting Picks for Week 5 (2020)
Week 4 was legitimately one of the most difficult to navigate for both the number of unknowns and the lack of trends followed by most teams. Emerging with a 2-1-1 record — 3-1 if you were fortunate to get the additional half-point with the Chargers — is a major victory considering how the games unfolded, and we can dive right back in with four more picks for Week 5.
Unknowns? Potential breaking of trends? They’re here again. The job hasn’t changed, though, and we’ll keep digging for any value we can find out of the 15 — for now — scheduled matchups.
The previous picks given in this BettingPros weekly column are 8-7-1 on the season. The rest of my against-the-spread picks and historical record can be found at Sporfolio.com.
Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook
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Los Angeles Rams at Washington Football Team OVER 45.5 (-110)
Trust. It’s always a fun emotion when it comes to making sports predictions. It’s similar to last week’s column in which I detailed how uncomfortable some risks we’re taking make us feel.
Can we “trust†a specific team to play a specific type of game?
There’s a difference between “trust†and “safe,†however. We “trust†that a team like the Seahawks will remain effective offensively. But, is that “safe?â€
No. Nothing is “safe†in the world of picking games.
There is a benefit to the lack of “trust.†We can generally see where people place their trust.
And where they don’t.
It’s hard to “trust†the Washington Football Team to score points. They are third-worst in the league in this category.
It’s also hard to “trust†the Los Angeles Rams after last week’s display of ineptitude against the Giants. It was a season-low for both points and yards, and neither was close to the season average.
The lack of “trust†has helped keep the over-under small, but it’s starting to rise. Why? Partly because Washington’s move from quarterback Dwayne Haskins to Kyle Allen should produce more offense, and partly because the two teams are being overlooked.
Don’t make the same mistake. Los Angeles had back-to-back games in which it scored at least 32 points, while Washington actually averages 19.8 points-per-game. It’s not a huge number, but it won’t destroy the game’s chances of hitting the ‘over.’
We don’t have to “trust†them, but these two teams set up nicely for a quietly high-scoring game. At least, compared to the low over-under.
Prediction: Rams/Washington Football Team OVER 45.5 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles +7 (-105) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Believe-it-or-not, I actually don’t recycle teams on a consistent basis. This is especially true if I correctly picked an outright upset by an underdog. At that point, I like to cash in on the value I found and move on. There will always be another play.
Sometimes, however, “another play†is the same play. Again, I don’t search for this, but I also can’t avoid it.
The Philadelphia Eagles are in-play again, even though they just knocked off the 49ers on national television despite getting at least a touchdown worth of points. Why?
Why so many points again? And why are they the play?
Thankfully, both questions can be answered with the same response: this matchup isn’t about the Eagles; it’s about the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The last time we saw Pittsburgh play, they were capping off another win to improve to an undefeated 3-0. Undefeated carries weight. I look to dismiss it.
Of the Steelers’ three opponents — Giants, Broncos, and Texans — only one is no longer winless. That one team’s victory? Denver beat the lifeless Jets.
To spell it out more bluntly, the Steelers have beaten the 0-4 Giants, the 0-4 Texans who were playing so poorly that they just fired their head coach and the 1-3 Broncos whose only win was against the 0-4 Jets.
The Steelers might be good — their defense certainly is — but we have no actual evidence of it. At least we know that the Eagles rank top-ten in fewest yards allowed on defense and technically have only lost two games on the year. The spread is completely ignoring this and is too large. And if the Steelers are currently as overrated as I’m suggesting, the Eagles have another chance to steal a win as a heavy underdog.
Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles +7 (-105)
Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets UNDER 47.5 (-115)
As of this writing, the game between the Arizona Cardinals and New York Jets is expected to be played as scheduled. The only change in plans? The Jets’ starting quarterback will be Joe Flacco instead of Sam Darnold — due to Darnold’s shoulder injury.
Whichever way we view the numbers, New York is an absolute mess. It ranks at the bottom of almost every offensive category, and last week’s Thursday Night Football showdown with the Broncos was the lone bright spot in terms of showing life on offense. The problem? Almost all of said “life†was generated by Darnold, who won’t play.
If we’re being fair to the over-under, the Cardinals could cover almost all of it on their own. They have the talent on offense to explode, and it’s not impossible to see a big rebound after back-to-back disappointing losses in which they failed to score more than 23 points, both times. The aforementioned talent is misleading, though, as the team ranks 21st in points-per-game over the first quarter of the season. Simply put, this isn’t the Cardinals’ offense we were promised heading into 2020.
Even if Arizona scores, it is also in the top ten for fewest points-allowed-per-game. Between its own success and the matchup with a backup quarterback, there aren’t enough avenues to help push the point total over the number.
Prediction: Cardinals/Jets UNDER 47.5 (-115)
Cincinnati Bengals +12.5 (-110) at Baltimore Ravens
I’ll keep this one short-and-sweet because it’s the perfect ‘checklist’ type of pick.
Division game? Check.
Road underdog? Check.
The perceived massive gap in talent? Check.
Unexpectedly close somewhere in the standings? Check.
Can the underdog either move the football or stop the opposing offense? Check.
Each of these factors impacts the spread — by keeping it larger than it should be — or the potential outcome — how the underdog can compete. Whenever we have this many arrows pointing in the same direction, we have to pounce.
It also helps that the Cincinnati Bengals have lost only two games by a combined eight points. Their point differential on the season is completely even at zero.
Yet they’re getting double-digit points. Take them.
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals +12.5 (-110)
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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros, as well as the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola. He has also been one of the industry leaders in NFL against-the-spread picks over the last 6 years.