Mario Mergola’s NFL Betting Picks for Week 6 (2020)
Such a disappointment.
The National Football League is not designed to be “easy.†It’s not easy play the games and it’s not easy to bet the games.
Until it is.
I write about this whenever an outlier season presents itself — 2016, anyone? — and it’s an important piece of this puzzle to remember. If something appears too good to be true, it usually is. Except, of course, when it isn’t.
Sound dumb? That’s because it is. It’s not logical that we can scan through games and find easy winners that don’t burn us. We know better — at least, we should. Still, every so often, for one-reason-or-another, the league follows the most likely outcome.
The Jets lose and never compete, thus leading to easy covers for their opponents. The big spreads aren’t big enough. The misplaced underdogs are actually misplaced underdogs.
It happens, and it usually lasts a little longer than it should. As long as we can recognize it, we can attack.
The previous picks given in this BettingPros weekly column are 9-10-1 on the season. The rest of my against-the-spread picks and historical record can be found at Sporfolio.com.
Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook
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Washington Football Team at New York Giants UNDER 43.5 (-115)
I did the latter for this article. Sometimes, I write the introduction to an article after I’ve finished the body. This helps me relate multiple ideas over several hundred words to a common theme. Other times, I write the introduction first as a means to guide my attention in a specific direction.
I want my mind to accept that 2020 is an outlier in more ways than what we’re seeing on a constant basis. It is extending to the NFL season, and it cannot be overlooked. Therefore, if I’m targeting a more “obvious†approach, how can I start anywhere else besides the likelihood of a low-scoring game between the New York Giants and Washington Football Team?
Washington has already had three different quarterbacks throw at least 13 passes on the young season, and it has resulted in the league’s worst offense in yards-per-game. But “worst†doesn’t even describe it. The illustrious Football Team managed 108 total yards of offense in their last contest. That is pitiful.
New York performed well enough against Dallas to reach the 300-yard mark for the first time, all season. No, not 300 passing yards. 300 total yards. That moved it into 30th in the league in yards-per-game.
I’m not overthinking this game. We have two of the worst offenses in the sport going head-to-head, while both defenses sit no worse than 14th for yards-allowed-per-game.
Maybe we’ll get lucky and the league will end the game whenever the first team scores. That might take all four quarters.
Prediction: Washington Football Team/Giants UNDER 43.5 (-115)
New York Jets +9.5 (-115) at Miami Dolphins
One pick after stating that I would be following the numbers more closely to what they show, I’m deviating and focusing on arguably the most exploited team in the National Football League. Sure, they’re also arguably the most disastrous team in the National Football League, but that has already had its impact on the spread. That didn’t last long.
Allow me to elaborate.
There is no team whose game is easier to pick than the New York Jets. We find their opponent, we laugh about the spread, and we pick said opponent. We don’t think twice.
This year, that strategy has been perfect. A 5-0 record. What’s even better is that it’s been the most perfect strategy of the year. The Jets are failing to beat their spreads by the largest margin in the league.
Again, this is the year where “easy†has worked. That does not mean it won’t have its opportunities to trap some people looking for a “sure thing.â€
I always present this case from the view of the oddsmakers. Imagine you’re in their shoes. You can set any number you want for the game between the Jets and Miami Dolphins. Obviously, if it’s too high, you will get some pushback. But you know you can’t set it too low. What do you do?
The answer should be to set it as high as possible to limit exposure. There’s a catch.
The Jets will eventually play a competitive game. Even the teams who do go 0-16 throw in the odd close battle. Why couldn’t that happen on Sunday? New York was originally scheduled to play in Los Angeles against a Chargers team that just lost a heartbreaker on national television. Now, it gets a division game against a familiar opponent. That’s a massive swing in the world of preparation.
The “catch†I mentioned? Maybe the oddsmakers don’t want to limit exposure. Maybe they want people to ask Miami to win a game by double digits. That’s probably because, with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, it isn’t as likely as many would think.
Fitzpatrick has had a ridiculously long career, but “consistency†has never been his strong suit. I keep regurgitating this same statistic wherever I’m writing, but Fitzpatrick has won a total of nine games since the start of 2018. Excluding last week and the final game of 2019 — since they didn’t have a “next game†— those seven wins were followed immediately by four losses. Of the three wins — the only back-to-back victories in this span — all three were by six points or fewer.
The number is large, and it won’t scare people away from the Dolphins. That’s actually what we want here.
Prediction: New York Jets +9.5 (-115)
Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens UNDER 46.5 (-115)
I’m uncomfortable picking the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens to go under their point total. I’m going to share a little secret that I mentioned a few articles ago: if I feel uncomfortable with a pick, I usually lean on it being correct.
Why am I doing it? Easy. My discomfort is wrong.
The number is right.
For starters, the odds that the game goes “under†are slightly heavier than “over†— right now, -115 versus -105 — and, while this is never the source of a pick, it’s a nice arrow in the right direction. Again, this isn’t because it’s “telling†us that the game will stay “under,†but that my own personal discomfort is not valid. If it were, I’d be taking the bait and jumping on the -105 — by comparison, my pick in the Washington game is not driven by the -105, where that was simply a welcomed bonus.
The reality is that the numbers tell us we should expect little offensively from both teams. Philadelphia’s defense is top-ten for both yards-per-rush and net-yards-per-pass-attempt. Baltimore’s offense is only 24th in yards-per-game.
Conversely, the Ravens’ defense is top-six in yards-per-game, yards-per-rush, and net-yards-per-pass-attempt, while the Eagles’ offense is averaging the fifth-fewest yards-per-game.
I may be uncomfortable, but the numbers are clearly telling the story.
Prediction: Eagles/Ravens UNDER 46.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers +3 (-110)
My work is new for BettingPros, but I have been writing an against-the-spread picks column for years. In doing so, I have used the words “overrated†and “Jimmy Garoppolo†more times than I can count. It would stand to reason that, in an effort to align my picks with the outcomes of the games, the San Francisco 49ers and Garoppolo struggling mightily in Week 5 was an important moment for my predictions.
Just not in the way many would expect.
Indeed, I enjoyed the game and Garoppolo’s struggles. I’d be lying if I said that I didn’t. But that pick was already submitted and that article published. Once the game went in my direction, that was all I needed for the past.
I needed more for the future.
And we got it.
The best part about San Francisco’s disaster is that it exposed the team. Publicly. Even if people missed the game, no one missed the final score.
Which means that, in a Primetime setting on national television, people will be looking to bury the 49ers. Especially against a 4-1 Los Angeles Rams team that ranks fourth-best in yards allowed and yards gained.
That’s exactly what we want.
This is a classic case of overreaction where the spotlight will soon shine.
San Francisco isn’t the same team that went to the Super Bowl — injuries have guaranteed that — and I fully believe in the Rams — they were my pick to win the NFC West in the preseason — but the spread originally responded to the 49ers’ loss by acting like these two teams are heading in completely opposite directions. Maybe they will, but this is the ideal rebound game that puts a temporary halt in the trend. I also like that the spread has moved down a bit, probably as bait for those ready to make too much of San Francisco’s loss.
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers +3 (-110)
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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros, as well as the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola. He has also been one of the industry leaders in NFL against-the-spread picks over the last 6 years.