Mario Mergola’s NFL Betting Picks for Week 7 (2020)

We’re finally getting into the meat of the 2020 NFL season and, even with prior years’ trends taking a temporary break, we’re starting to see which patterns are working in this unorthodox year. Unfortunately, it means that we have to be a little more open-minded than usual.

Normally, we’re looking to target both value and misalignment in perception and actual expectations. This year, we are fortunate if we get one of those factors on our side.

Still, we’re marching along and unable to turn away from a few picks that have lopsided numbers in one direction or another.

The previous picks given in this BettingPros weekly column are 11-12-1 on the season. The rest of my against-the-spread picks and historical record can be found at Sporfolio.com.

Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook

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Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns UNDER 50.5 (-105)

I don’t love the fact that news is starting to impact the overall outlook for the game between the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns, but it looks like there’s still some wiggle room for us to find value.

The Bengals and Browns put together a surprisingly high-scoring battle in Week 2 on national television when they combined for 65 points. What’s more impressive is that both teams reached the 30-point plateau in the contest. For Cleveland, this sparked a four-game streak in which it scored at least 30 points. Said streak was snapped in last week’s dud against the Steelers, but the string of production was noteworthy.

For the Bengals, the only time in which they scored at least 30 points was Week 4 against the Jaguars — who rank 25th in points-allowed-per-game. Even with one of their most efficient offensive games in last week’s loss to the Colts, the Bengals still failed to reach 30 points. And of course, we have to recognize that Cincinnati scored most of its points in its last meeting against the Browns thanks to ‘garbage time,’ in which Cleveland had already established a big lead.

The Browns’ offense has the better route to points on Sunday thanks to the head-to-head matchup between Cleveland’s run game and Cincinnati’s non-existent rush defense — allowing the fourth-most yards-per-carry in the league. This will also lead to longer possessions and a continually moving game clock. The Bengals would then need to match the Browns’ offense and do so with condensed time.

The news that Joe Mixon will miss the game for Cincinnati has already caused the over-under to drop, but it was already too inflated by the previous matchup between these two teams and the high-scoring nature of the league over the first month of the season.

Prediction: Bengals/Browns UNDER 50.5 (-106)

Carolina Panthers +7 (-110) at New Orleans Saints

Again, the news is doing us no favors, as Michael Thomas’ absence from the game between the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers has already caused the spread to shrink slightly. Still, we’re looking at a divisional game where the road team is getting a touchdown worth of points. It’s a big number, but there’s a reason.

In the same vein that the over-under was inflated by prior history in the aforementioned Bengals and Browns game, the spread is large between the Panthers and Saints because of the state in which New Orleans enters Sunday’s game. That is, the team is coming off a bye week. Not only is there a perception boost in this — more preparation time is often a good thing — but there are two competing trends.

Prior to last year, the Saints had won three consecutive games following their bye. This fits the narrative of extra time producing positive results. If we look more recently, however, we see that New Orleans might actually be losing value because of extended rest.

If we take the start of 2018 as our cutoff, we have six instances in which the Saints had at least thirteen days off prior to their next game. These were three Opening Day games — ’18, ’19, and ’20 — two bye weeks — ’18 and ’19 — and a bye prior to a playoff game — ’18. The Saints have gone 4-2 in those games, but only one of the wins was by more than six points. Put another way, New Orleans would be 1-5 against a spread of -7 or more in the past three seasons following extended rest. That one win was also this year’s Opening Day in which the Buccaneers turned the ball over three times and the Saints returned an interception for a touchdown.

Another reason why the bye week is providing an inflated spread for the Saints is the overlooked memories of how New Orleans has played, to date. The Saints rank only 12th in yards-per-game, and their comparatively poor play is easily forgotten via the week away from the game. Conveniently, Carolina ranks 11th in yards-per-game.

Prediction: Panthers +7 (-110)

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals OVER 54.5 (-115)

I always preface an ‘obvious pick’ with how dangerous it is to trust an ‘obvious pick.’ Therefore, I am obligated to highlight how dangerous it is to confidently lean on the ‘over’ in the game between the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals. Yet, here we are.

The move to Primetime has actually done us no favors. Arizona just played a nationally televised game and put up a season-high 38 points. The reality, however, is that the Cardinals actually played poorly. There were missed opportunities and bad passes throughout the contest, but the Cowboys were so much more inept that Arizona’s mistakes were forgiven. In essence, had the Cardinals played against a better defense, we would be looking at their last game in a much different light.

The good news is that Arizona will not be playing against a better defense on Sunday night. In fact, it will be playing against the most forgiving defense in the league.

This is simply a pick based on the numbers. Arizona has played in exactly one game that combined to reach the 50-point barrier, but each one was a function of its opponent. Not only will Seattle allow points easily, but it will have no problem matching the Cardinals’ offense. The Seahawks have not scored fewer than 27 points in a game, not allowed less than 25 points, and have combined with their opponents for at least 53 points in every single game.

The number is high, but so is the likelihood of fireworks.

Prediction: Seahawks/Cardinals OVER 54.5 (-115)

Chicago Bears +6 (-110) at Los Angeles Rams

I absolutely love the Los Angeles Rams. Not as a fan — I have no particular preference for them — but as someone who follows the perception of a team like a rising and falling stock.

The Rams are a rising stock, and people are eager to buy. On a related note, I’m holding their less expensive shares.

Los Angeles was one of my top picks for reaching their win total’s ‘over’ before the season began. Head coach Sean McVay has led the Rams to a winning season every year that he has been at the helm, and there was no reason to think that his team would regress further after missing last year’s playoffs. And now people are seeing it.

I never write about my prior picks as a means to highlight what I’ve done right — I make plenty of mistakes, too — but I always call out the good predictions when they are reaching their peak value. In other words, if I’m driving the bandwagon, I want to know when others are joining.

So I can promptly exit.

In the long run, I’m still buying into the Rams. The team is now top-ten for both yards allowed and yards gained, and they are still in position to win on Monday Night Football. I did write about how much of a ‘trap’ they were facing in last week’s Primetime game against the 49ers, and the general assumption here is that the Rams will simply rebound and outlast the Chicago Bears.

Maybe.

We just can’t expect it to happen easily, as Chicago now ranks seventh-best in both yards and points allowed. In fact, the Bears have not given up more than 26 points in a game, and they have held three consecutive opponents to fewer than 20 points. The Rams actually don’t need to score to win. They have failed to score more than 20 points in half of their six games, but they are still 2-1 when doing so.

Chicago is also a disrespected 5-1 team who played poorly in its last Primetime game, only to steal a victory. Expect a cleaner performance and another competitive game on Monday night.

Prediction: Bears +6 (-110)

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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros, as well as the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola. He has also been one of the industry leaders in NFL against-the-spread picks over the last 6 years.