Mario Mergola’s NFL Betting Picks for Week 9 (2020)
We’re finally starting to see some carefully laid plans work as expected, even if it means that prior trends are currently on-hold.
Last week was one of the best since the start of the season, and it moved us back into positive territory. We’ll look to continue this momentum as we cautiously balance value with mismatches in perception.
The previous picks given in this BettingPros weekly column are 16-15-1 on the season. The rest of my against-the-spread picks and historical record can be found at Sporfolio.com.
Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook
New York Giants at Washington Football Team OVER 42.5 (-110)
Too easy, too easy, too easy.
I always write about it, and it’s worth highlighting again here. That is, any pick that looks ‘too easy’ is probably hiding something.
Granted, the point total for the game between the Washington Football Team and New York Giants is low, but it is still the most obvious, ‘easy’ route that the game stays on the low-scoring end of the scale.
Maybe, but we’re looking at two teams that did combine for roughly 40 points in their last matchup — the 41st point hinged on a two-point conversion — and each team is coming off performances in which it reached at least 20 points. We aren’t looking at an explosive set of offenses for anyone in particular, but we do have the opportunity to buy the ‘over’ at a discount.
Prediction: Giants/Washington Football Team OVER 42.5 (-110)
Houston Texans -6.5 (-115) at Jacksonville Jaguars
In the world of picking games, nothing is more powerful than a reaction. Usually, it’s “overreaction,†where we can clearly see the direction in which attention is moving. Then there are times when I’m reacting.
Such as now.
There is no way to avoid the elephant in the room that is Jake Luton of the Jacksonville Jaguars. “Who is Jake Luton?†you might ask. He’s the starting quarterback of the Jaguars. Don’t worry, you’re far from the only person who will Google his name.
The problem is that most football fans have to Google Jake Luton’s name. That leads to an immediate downgrade of the Jaguars’ offense, as well as an increased spread.
Under normal circumstances, I would never approach such a game. This is the prototypical example of, again, reaction. I don’t want to be on the reactionary side. Alas, this pick isn’t about Luton. It’s about the Houston Texans’ likelihood of returning from their bye week as a new team ready to make some noise in the second half of the season.
Of course, there is that spread. It’s large, and I suspect it will only grow as people start to recognize that, whatever Gardner Minshew brought to the table as the Jaguars’ quarterback, Luton is unlikely to do the same. Still, as we continue to see throughout this season, ‘traps’ are not as effective as in prior years. Jacksonville has shown little ability to put up a fight in any game since Opening Day, and the dropoff at quarterback will be too much for the team to handle on Sunday.
Prediction: Texans -6.5 (-115)
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals UNDER 49.5 (-114)
It’s always nice when we can find two paths to winning a pick. Such is the case for the game between the Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins.
The first avenue is the obvious one, where rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa could potentially be stymied by the Cardinals’ defense. In Tagovailoa’s first career start, he threw for fewer than 100 yards and led his team to only two scoring drives — both of which were direct results of turnovers.
The other manner in which the game stays on the lower-scoring end of the scale — compared to the high point total — is simply the nature of Arizona’s games and history. The Cardinals have only played in two games in which the actual point total ended up higher than 50 points.
Both the Cardinals and Dolphins carry their share of name-value in terms of offense, and we can use this to our advantage against the over/under.
Prediction: Dolphins/Cardinals UNDER 49.5 (-114)
New England Patriots at New York Jets +7.5 (-115)
Something would have been wrong had I not dove deep for a bundle of underdogs, and it took until the final game of the weekend for me to find another one that carries value — spoiler alert: I’m uncomfortable heavier on favorites in Week 9. Believe-it-or-not, the team that carries value? That would be the New York Jets.
I may be a writer, but coming up with enough adjectives to accurately describe the Jets’ 2020 season is a useless effort. We’ve all seen the scores. Mercifully, I hope many of you have not actually seen the games. Indeed, that changes on Monday night, but we can’t stay protected forever.
When the Jets host the New England Patriots, it will be the usual expectation of sacrifice and slaughter that comes with the former powerhouse of the AFC East playing against the perennial doormat. And yet, the spread for the game has remained in the area of a touchdown worth of points for the entirety of the week.
Considering that the entire football world knows how inept the Jets are, why isn’t this spread bigger? We just saw New York get nearly 20 points in Kansas City, and the Steelers are giving two touchdowns on the road. What gives?
However we want to slice it, this is a game of numbers against perception. The perception is as I previously stated — the Patriots should dismantle the Jets — but the numbers say otherwise — most notably, that New England is scoring the fourth-fewest points-per-game.
Most importantly, the Primetime element of the game means that this spread cannot afford to be wrong — it will have extreme attention at the end of a football weekend. Again, this means that we must take the number seriously, as it is likely to lead to a close game.
Prediction: Jets +7.5 (-115)
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros, as well as the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola. He has also been one of the industry leaders in NFL against-the-spread picks over the last 6 years.