Marquette vs. New Mexico: 2025 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 16, 2025

The 2025 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first-round 2025 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our top picks and predictions for Marquette vs. New Mexico.

2025 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks: Marquette vs. New Mexico

Let’s dive into our top picks and predictions for this opening-round NCAA Tournament matchup.

2025 NCAA Tournament Preview: Marquette vs. New Mexico

Marquette 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview

Marquette enters the NCAA Tournament out of the Big East after an up-and-down season. Marquette started 15-2, and it seemed like Kam Jones would compete for the Wooden Award, as he stepped up in a big way with elite offense and solid defense. But over the final month and a half of play, Marquette ranks 45th overall, with both their offense and defense ranking outside the top 50.

Where Jones goes, Marquette goes. The elite guard leads the team in scoring and assists and is the fourth most indispensable player in hoops, per EvanMiya. Jones needs to step up and find the next gear for Marquette to go anywhere. David Joplin and Ben Gold help bolster Marquette's defense, The Golden Eagles have the 21st-best midrange defense in the country. Chase Ross and Stevie Mitchell are top defenders, with each ranking highly in steals, and Marquette converts that into offense, taking care of the ball at a high clip. That's what they will have to do for an effective tournament run.

Shot volume is in their favor, with some analytically sound ball, shooting a few midrange shots while taking a high volume of threes. The problem is that they don't really make them. Ranking 245th in 3pt% is not a recipe for success in March. It also seems like chef Shaka Smart has lost his tournament recipe. Since his 2011 Final Four appearance with VCU, he's only made it to the Sweet 16 once, and that was last year with a much better Marquette squad. Otherwise, Smart's squads have made consistently early exits, and usually as favorites.

Marquette seems like a team that has gotten swept under the rug, but their early-season play should not go unnoticed. They beat Maryland, Purdue, and Georgia in consecutive games, followed by a Wisconsin win as well. Their non-conference performance is promising, but it's hard to trust this team’s ceiling with its lack of late-season play and inefficient shooting. Kam Jones could take this team places, but if opponents can lock him down, it's hard to see Marquette making a deep run.

New Mexico 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview

The Lobos enter March Madness as a dangerous squad built around defensive intensity and blistering pace. Coach Richard Pitino has methodically transformed this program since arriving in Albuquerque, improving the Lobos’ standing each season while re-establishing them as Mountain West contenders. New Mexico’s tournament appearance last year was its first dance since 2014, and this year’s team appears even more formidable despite flying under the national radar.

Junior guard Donovan Dent stepped into the spotlight after sharing backcourt duties last season, bringing elite rim-attacking ability with over 20 points a game. He’s also a defensive disruptor. The frontcourt features the imposing Nelly Junior Joseph paired with versatile forward Mustapha Amzil, giving the Lobos a formidable presence on the boards, where they’ve dramatically improved.

Pitino’s defensive philosophy centers on shot-blocking and turnover creation, with the team ranking among the nation’s best at forcing midrange jumpers and converting steals into transition opportunities.

While their regular season featured moments of inconsistency and frustrating losses that hurt their seeding, the Lobos possess the defensive identity, guard play, and tournament-tested coaching to make noise now that everyone’s record resets to 0-0 in March.

2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Marquette vs. New Mexico

The Marquette Golden Eagles lost three of their last four games to close out the regular season. Then, in the Big East Tournament, Marquette narrowly escaped Xavier but lost to St. John's, 79-63, in the semifinals. Marquette really makes teams work on defense. Opponents have used nearly 19 seconds per possession against the Golden Eagles this season.

Still, teams have shot 51.3% from inside the arc and have added 31% of offensive rebounds against Marquette this season. Meanwhile, New Mexico has added 31.5% of offensive rebounds and usually gets to the foul line way more than Marquette does. But what scares me about New Mexico is the fact that the Lobos have shot just 68.4% from the foul line this season.

They've also hit only 34.1% from inside the arc and have shot just 50.6% from inside the arc. In a tight, low-scoring game, I've got Marquette earning the win and covering the 3.5-point spread.

2025 NCAA Tournament Picks: Marquette vs. New Mexico

Bet: Marquette -3.5 (-110 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Check out all of our 2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket & Betting Coverage >>

2025 NCAA Tournament Sports Betting Picks

For those looking to place bets on the matchups, let's take a look at the early odds and picks for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

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