Men’s College Basketball NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction (2022)
It's officially that time of year again – Selection Sunday. Every team gets a clean slate and starts again fresh. 68 teams are methodically placed in a beautiful bracket, and the madness begins. There’s nothing better.
Welcome to my final bracketology article of the season. I am shocked at how much has happened in just the last 72 hours that has changed the destiny of some teams. Virginia Tech took matters into their own hands, earning an ACC auto-bid while Indiana and Texas A&M seriously boosted their tournament case.
For the most part, my bracket is set. There are still games to be played Sunday before the bracket is released, however, so let me go over a few hypotheticals.
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The Hypotheticals
- Yale vs. Princeton: The winner obviously gets the Ivy League auto-bid. Princeton is a better team with a better resume, and they would earn a 14-seed. If Yale wins, however, I see the Bulldogs a seed lower, boosting some other mid-major squads.
- Texas A&M vs. Tennessee: The Aggies may have already cemented themselves in the tournament, but locking themselves in with a win would help the Buzz Williams crew breathe a bit easier, and avoid any play-in risk. Either way, they should be a double-digit team. Tennessee winning could allow them to snag the final two-seed, but I still see them as a three-seed either way.
- Richmond vs. Davidson: Every bubble team in America is rooting for Davidson to cap off the Atlantic 10 championship. A win for Richmond would be the first case of bid stealing we see, knocking off a bubble team. Davidson should be a ten-seed either way.
- Memphis vs. Houston: I don't see this game having much of an impact on seeding. Memphis could potentially move from a ten to a nine, while a Houston win should lock them in as a five-seed.
- Iowa vs. Purdue: A Purdue win gives the Boilermakers a shot at the final one-seed considering Baylor and Auburn's early exits but I see them as a two-seed either way. Iowa has been on fire of late and could propel themselves all the way to a five-seed with a Big Ten championship.
Locks, Borderline Locks, and Bubble Watch.
ACC
- Locks: Duke, Virginia Tech, North Carolina
- Borderline Locks: None
- Bubble Watch: Miami, Wake Forest, Notre Dame
Big 12
- Locks: Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas, TCU, Iowa State
- Borderline Locks:
- Bubble Watch: Oklahoma
Big East
- Locks: Providence, Villanova, UConn, Marquette, Seton Hall, Creighton
- Borderline Locks:
- Bubble Watch: Xavier
Big Ten
- Locks: Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State
- Borderline Locks: None
- Bubble Watch: Michigan, Indiana, Rutgers,
Pac-12
- Locks: Arizona, UCLA, USC
- Borderline Locks: None
- Bubble Watch: None
SEC
- Locks: Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, LSU
- Borderline Locks: None
- Bubble Watch: Texas A&M
Mid Majors/Others
- Locks: Gonzaga, Houston, Saint Mary's, Colorado State, Boise State, Murray State, Loyola-Chicago, San Diego State, San Francisco, Davidson, Memphis, UAB
- Borderline Locks: Wyoming
- Bubble Watch: SMU, North Texas, BYU, VCU, Dayton
Auto-Bids
- American East: Vermont
- ACC: Virginia Tech
- ASUN: Jacksonville State
- Big 12: Kansas
- Big East: Villanova
- Big Sky: Montana State
- Big South: Longwood
- Big West: CSU Fullerton
- CAA: Delaware
- CUSA: UAB
- Horizon League: Wright State
- MAAC: Saint Peter's
- MAC: Akron
- MEAC: Norfolk State
- MVC: Loyola-Chicago
- Mountain West: Boise State
- Northeast: Bryant
- OVC: Murray State
- Pac-12: Arizona
- Patriot: Colgate
- Southern: Chattanooga
- Southland: Texas A&M Corpus Christi
- SWAC: Texas Southern
- Summit: South Dakota State
- Sun Belt: Georgia State
- WCC: Gonzaga
- WAC: New Mexico State
The Bubble
This might be one of the most shifty bubbles I have ever seen. A week ago, Texas A&M, Indiana, and Virginia Tech were all out of the tournament, and now at least one of them is guaranteed a spot with the other two seriously making a strong case.
Don't be surprised if a team like VCU, Dayton, or North Texas slips into the field either. The committee is ever-evolving in their selection process so they may take a bit more analytically favored approach beyond purely looking at the results and resumes of teams.
I have said this before but I see this as one of the more difficult brackets to predict in recent memory. So many teams have vastly different resumes with varying degrees of success and failures that it will be quite interesting to see how the committee ends up ranking them.
For now, let's get to my seeding and the bracket.
The Seeding
1 Seeds |
| Gonzaga |
| Arizona |
| Kansas |
| Baylor |
2 Seeds |
| Auburn |
| Kentucky |
| Purdue |
| Duke |
3 Seeds |
| Tennessee |
| Texas Tech |
| Villanova |
| Wisconsin |
4 Seeds |
| Providence |
| UCLA |
| Arkansas |
| Illinois |
5 Seeds |
| Iowa |
| Houston |
| Connecticut |
| Saint Mary's |
6 Seeds |
| Texas |
| Alabama |
| USC |
| LSU |
7 Seeds |
| Murray State |
| Ohio State |
| Marquette |
| Colorado State |
8 Seeds |
| Boise State |
| Iowa State |
| Michigan State |
| Seton Hall |
9 Seeds |
| Loyola-Chicago |
| TCU |
| San Diego State |
| Creighton |
10 Seeds |
| Memphis |
| Davidson |
| San Francisco |
| North Carolina |
11 Seeds |
| Virginia Tech |
| Indiana |
| Wyoming |
| Miami |
12 Seeds |
| Michigan* |
| Texas A&M* |
| Notre Dame* |
| Rutgers* |
| UAB |
| South Dakota State |
13 Seeds |
| Chattanooga |
| Vermont |
| New Mexico State |
| Princeton |
14 Seeds |
| Akron |
| Saint Peter's |
| Colgate |
| Jacksonville State |
15 Seeds |
| Delaware |
| CSU Fullerton |
| Montana State |
| Longwood |
16 Seeds |
| Wright State |
| Georgia State |
| Bryant* |
| Texas A&M Corpus Christi* |
| Texas Southern* |
| Norfolk State* |
*Play-in games
Bold = Conference Champions
First Four Out
- SMU
- North Texas
- Wake Forest
- VCU
Next Four Out
- Xavier
- BYU
- Oklahoma
- Dayton
The Bracket
There are a lot of seeding rules to keep in mind, so you may see some teams move a seed line to fit within the lines.
West Region |
Midwest Region |
||||||||||
| (1) Gonzaga vs. (16) Norfolk State/(16) Texas Southern | (1) Kansas vs. (16) Bryant/(16) Texas A&M Corpus Christi | ||||||||||
| (8) Michigan State vs. (9) San Diego State | (8) Iowa State vs. (9) Creighton | ||||||||||
| (5) Iowa vs. (12) UAB | (5) Houston vs. (12) Michigan/Texas A&M | ||||||||||
| (4) USC vs. (13) Chattanooga | (4) UCLA vs. (13) New Mexico State | ||||||||||
| (3) Wisconsin vs. (14) Jacksonville State | (3) Texas Tech vs. (14) Saint Peter's | ||||||||||
| (6) Texas vs. (11) Wyoming | (6) Alabama vs. (11)Indiana | ||||||||||
| (7) Murray State vs. (10) Davidson | (7) Marquette vs. (10) Memphis | ||||||||||
| (2) Kentucky vs. (15) CSU Fullerton | (2) Duke vs. (15) Montana State | ||||||||||
East Region |
South Region |
||||||||||
| (1) Baylor vs. (16) Wright State | (1) Arizona vs. (16) Georgia State | ||||||||||
| (8) Boise State vs. (9) Loyola-Chicago | (8) Seton Hall vs. (9) TCU | ||||||||||
| (5) UConn vs. (12) Notre Dame/Rutgers | (5) Arkansas vs. (12) South Dakota State | ||||||||||
| (4) Illinois vs. (13) Vermont | (4) Providence vs. (13) Princeton | ||||||||||
| (3) Villanova vs. (14) Colgate | (3) Tennessee vs. (14) Akron | ||||||||||
| (6) LSU vs. (11) Miami | (6) Saint Mary's vs. (11) Virginia Tech | ||||||||||
| (7) Ohio State vs. (10) North Carolina | (7) Colorado State vs. (10) San Francisco | ||||||||||
| (2) Auburn vs. (15) Delaware | (2) Purdue vs. (15) Longwood | ||||||||||
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