Men’s College Basketball NCAA Tournament Bracketology Predictions (2024-25)
Hey Siri, play "Without Me" by Eminem. That's right, folks, the college basketball season is back! NIL has taken over, which has caused coaches like Tony Bennett to make a beeline out the door, but that doesn't stop the hype and excitement felt this time of year for a new season. There is ample talent across the board, and while UConn will try for a three-peat, the spotlight will be on Cooper Flagg and Duke to see if Jon Scheyer can make something of his loaded roster.
Throughout the season, I'll be coming at you with Bracketology and power rankings, as well as any best future or weekly bets to add to your portfolio. Keeping track of how a team's season ebbs and flows is a perfect way to stay profitable come tourney time. There may be a five-seed whose season is on a tailspin with injuries going against a 12-seed that finished the year 11-1. It's important to monitor and get some valuable futures as the season progresses. And besides, it's fun.
I'll finish this article with an initial seeding for my preseason bracket, but before that, here are some futures I'm betting on before the season tips off and my Final Four prediction.
Men's College Basketball: NCAA Preseason Tourney Preseason Bracketology
Houston – NCAAB Tournament Winner (+1600 on FanDuel): What Kelvin Sampson has done with the Houston basketball program is unprecedented. In the last eight seasons, Houston has finished in the top 20 on KenPom and, more impressively, second in three straight seasons. They have been a champion-caliber team for a while now, and it's only a matter of time before they break through. The Cougars are ranked number one preseason in pretty much every ranking system besides the AP Poll, and the betting market doesn't reflect that. Besides Jamal Shead, Houston re-loads with the rest of their roster. Milos Uzan has seemed to transition well into Sampson's team, they are healthy and have depth and I'd bet them anywhere they aren't title favorites.
Illinois – Big Ten Regular Season Champion (+1000 on DraftKings): With Zach Edey gone at Purdue and 1000 teams joining the conference, the Big Ten is up for grabs with basically eight teams arguably in the Tier 1 grouping of Big Ten teams that I can reasonably see take down the regular season title. My selection is Illinois. Entering the season, Brad Underwood has done nothing but hype up his Illini team and the talent it bolsters. Of course, I can only trust a coach to talk so much, but there isn't much exaggeration here. Bart Torvik ranks Illinois second in terms of Effective Talent rank, and while they are young and have a lot of turnovers, I can get behind the talent. The preseason match against Ole Miss is a bit concerning, but Illinois has time to come together before getting into the grind of the Big Ten. Matches like Alabama and Auburn before beginning conference play with Northwestern and Wisconsin help them. I'm only going to like U of I as the season progresses and they have the serious talent to earn a regular season title. My other value option is Michigan if you're feeling it, but we'll cover them later.
Vermont – American East Champion (-200 on BetMGM): Besides McNeese State, Grand Canyon, and maybe Gonzaga, Vermont is the clear choice as a conference favourite in the American East this year. They are a team that projects to be inside the top 100 nationally, and they should be favoured in every conference game, barring any major injuries. I'm not a fan of betting big favourites, but -200 isn't juiced nearly enough, so there's still great value, and it provides a safer selection to add to your futures portfolio.
Dayton – A10 Champion (+425 on Caesers): There isn't much analysis here other than Dayton should be the favourite. This is a borderline top-25 team with the talent to back. Malachi Smith returns from an injured year, Zed Key comes in as an efficient guard, and +425 is simply too juicy to pass up.
Boise State – Mountain West Champion (+475 on DraftKings): If you are just getting into college basketball, please follow the Mountain West this season, as it will be the most exciting conference in the nation. This truly is a six-sided coin flip for any team that could take down the title, and I'm taking the team you can argue is the best in the league with the fifth-lowest odds. If you average out the four main college basketball ranking sites (KenPom, Bart Torvik, EvanMiya, Haslametrics), you get a national ranking of New Mexico (60th), San Diego State (61st), Nevada (62nd), and Boise State (63rd). As I said, these teams are all split by hair. Boise State is just the combination of talent and value. Tyson Degenhart and O'Mar Stanley should be first-team All-Mountain West and Leon Rice is one of the best coaches in the nation nobody knows about. Give me the Broncos here.
Final Four Predictions
(Odds Courtesy Of DraftKings Sportsbook)
While "To Make the Final Four" futures aren't widely available right now, here is my official Final Four prediction: Houston (+275), Gonzaga (+360), Creighton (+1100), and Michigan (+1300).
It might be easy to go with the four highest-ranked teams, but that's no fun and never happens. This list is more so what teams I see as underrated to the field preseason with serious championship aspirations. Let me start with Creighton. Of course, UConn is the powerhouse with back-to-back titles, but I see Creighton contending here with what should be a top-five offense and top-25 defense. Ryan Kalkbrenner is a beast in the paint with DPOY contention and a favourite for Big East Player of the Year. The combination of talent, coaching, and no glaring holes makes this an easy bet for the Final Four. Under Greg McDermott, Creighton has made the Elite Eight and Sweet Sixteen twice with three top-12 KenPom finishes. It's only a matter of time until they break through into the Final Four, and I seriously think this could be the year.
Gonzaga is almost a post-hype option. After finishing just outside the top 10 on KenPom last year, they re-loaded with the fifth-most returning minutes in the country from last year's team. The offense will be electric; they handled solid tournament opponents – beating McNeese State and Kansas by 20-plus points – and they have all the parts to put together a deep run with potentially the deepest roster in the country. The Bulldogs rank fifth in overall roster strength by EvanMiya, and their ability to run through the WCC will give them favourable seeding.
Michigan is my go-to sleeper Final Four option. Dusty May has done it before, and he has the talent and roster construction to do it again. Vlad Goldin should anchor the team and while there lacks a true go-to playmaker, I expect this team to run like a well-oiled machine. Michigan won't ever beat itself and will be a pass-first team that consistently finds the open look. There is serious size to this team and enough skill for a top-25 defense. A Final Four run is well within reason, but shop around because I'm guessing you'll be able to find better options than 13/1.
If you're looking for other Final Four bets, I'd lean toward Cincinnati (+2200), Wake Forest (+2800), or USC (+3000).
Now let's get to seeding for the preseason bracket. I'll update this every other week throughout the season, and it's always good to get a pulse on teams as they ebb and flow throughout the season. I cannot wait to see how this looks at the end of the year, as so much is up in the air for what a fantastic college basketball season this will be.
The Seeding
1 Seeds
- Houston
- Duke
- Kansas
- Alabama
2 Seeds
- Iowa State
- Auburn
- Gonzaga
- UConn
3 Seeds
- Arizona
- Tennessee
- North Carolina
- Purdue
4 Seeds
- Creighton
- Baylor
- Texas
- Texas Tech
5 Seeds
- Texas A&M
- Cincinnati
- Marquette
- UCLA
6 Seeds
- Illinois
- Mississippi State
- BYU
- Kentucky
7 Seeds
- Arkansas
- Michigan State
- Indiana
- St. John's
8 Seeds
- Michigan
- Dayton (A10)
- Florida
- Xavier
9 Seeds
- Clemson
- Villanova
- Boise State (Mountain West)
- Iowa
10 Seeds
- Oregon
- Memphis (American)
- USC
- Saint Mary's
11 Seeds
- Oklahoma
- Wisconsin
- Ole Miss*
- Rutgers*
- Kansas State*
- Wake Forest*
12 Seeds
- Grand Canyon (WAC)
- Princeton (Ivy)
- McNeese State (Southland)
- Bradley (MVC)
13 Seeds
- Louisiana Tech (CUSA)
- High Point (Big South)
- Vermont (American East)
- Arkansas State (Sun Belt)
14 Seeds
- UC Irvine (Big West)
- Ohio (MAC)
- Samford (Southern)
- Towson (CAA)
15 Seeds
- Lipscomb (ASUN)
- Purdue Fort Wayne (Horizon)
- Weber State (Big Sky)
- South Dakota State (Summit)
16 Seeds
- Quinnipiac (MAAC)
- Colgate (Patriot)
- Howard* (MEAC)
- Morehead State* (Ohio Valley)
- Southern* (SWAC)
- Wagner* (Northeast)
*Play-in games
First Four Out
- Miami
- New Mexico
- Ohio State
- TCU
Next Four Out
- Northwestern
- Pittsburgh
- VCU
- N.C. State
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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.