Men’s College Basketball: NCAA Tourney Bracketology 3.0 (2024)

by Ryan Coleman |
Mar 13, 2024

Welcome to the penultimate bracketology article of the season, featuring a brand new bracket. Auto-bids have been claimed, bubbles have been popped and spring is in the air. It doesn't get much better than this. If you listen closely, you can hear the Selection Sunday bells ringing, which is only five days away now!

Bracketology helps identify potential paths for dark horse teams to contend and get ahead of the books, and honestly, it's just fun.

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Men's College Basketball: NCAA Tournament Bracketology 3.0 (2024)

With less than a week remaining before Selection Sunday, here are some lingering bracket-related questions:

Burning Questions

Who Will Get the Fourth One-Seed?

I asked this question in the last article, and it remains. Arizona's regular-season finale loss to USC opened up the door for that last one-seed to be claimed, and it now appears to be a toss-up. The two main contestants look like Tennessee and North Carolina right now. Assuming they both win their respective conference tournaments, who should it go to?

Right now, on Bracket Matrix, Tennessee has the slight edge. They have impressive metrics and play in a more difficult conference. I usually back the numbers and resumé, but there's one thing that gives me the nod to UNC: They won in the head-to-head matchup. That has to count for something, right? I can't imagine the committee will gloss over that. Plus, UNC has a greater chance to win out before the bracket drops.

What To Do With the Mountain West?

In case you aren't aware, the Mountain West conference is good. Colorado State finished as a seven-seed in the conference and is currently a projected nine-seed in the NCAA Tournament. San Diego State’s Jaedon LeDee has been one of the most improved players in the country, and the story of Utah State with first-year head coach Danny Sprinkle is awesome.

This conference has been so solid that there is a significant chance that it will get more bids than the ACC and Pac-12 combined. San Diego State, Utah State, Nevada, Boise State and Nevada can all be locked in. New Mexico is square on the bubble, but so are Virginia and Colorado. If the Lobos make it and Virginia and Colorado miss, you won't stop hearing that statistic.

Will Indiana State Get In?

After dropping to Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference Championship, Indiana State will have to sweat it out until Sunday. As of this writing, the Sycamores rank 29th in the NET, 44th in KPI, 40th in BPI, 43rd in KenPom with an 0-2 Q1A record, 1-4 Q1 record and a 22-1 record in Q3 and 4 (thank you, Bart Torvik). This is the definition of a bubble team. My answer? You'll have to read to find out.

Let's check out who has already solidified their tournament bid.

Tournament Locks:

Auto-Bids (11)

Morehead State (Ohio Valley)
Longwood (Big South)
Drake (Missouri Valley)
Stetson (Atlantic Sun)
James Madison (Sun Belt)
Samford (Southern)
Wagner (NEC)
Oakland (Horizon)
Charleston (CAA)
Saint Mary's (WCC)
South Dakota State (Summit)

There are not too many surprises here so far. Drake is a solid team and beat Indiana State fair and square. I can’t say I'm exactly excited about Longwood or Wagner, but maybe they'll get a nice play-in win in Dayton.

Otherwise, here's how the rest of the bracket currently sits:

ACC

Locks: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson
Almost There: None
Bubble: Virginia, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh
Looking for a Miracle: Syracuse

Big Ten

Locks: Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Nebraska
Almost There: Michigan State
Bubble: None
Looking for a Miracle: Iowa, Ohio State

Big East

Locks: UConn, Marquette, Creighton
Almost There: Seton Hall
Bubble: Villanova, St. John's
Looking for a Miracle: Providence, Butler

Big 12

Locks: Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Baylor, BYU, Texas Tech, Texas
Almost There: TCU, Oklahoma
Bubble: None
Needs a Miracle: Kansas State, Cincinnati

Mountain West

Locks: San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State, Nevada
Almost There: Colorado State
Bubble: New Mexico
Needs a Miracle: None

PAC-12

Locks: Arizona, Washington State
Almost There: None
Bubble: Colorado
Needs a Miracle: None

SEC

Locks: Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina
Almost There: None
Bubble: Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Needs a Miracle: None

All Other Conferences

Locks: Dayton, Gonzaga
Almost There: FAU
Bubble: Indiana State
Needs a Miracle: Memphis, Loyola-Chicago, Richmond

When looking at the bubble, I see 10 teams with legitimate chances of being selected if they win a few games in their respective tournaments. “Needs a Miracle” to me would be losing in overtime as a big underdog in the conference championship, basically anything short of perfection, and they're out.

For the 10 bubble teams, there are really only four spots available. Mississippi State is closer to the “Almost There” territory, while Wake Forest, Pittsburgh and Texas A&M are closer to the “Needs a Miracle” territory. Still, all these teams have Q1 opportunities to improve their resumés enough to sneak into the tournament. Indiana State will be rooting hard for Florida Atlantic, Dayton and any team not named Virginia, Pittsburgh or Wake Forest to win their respective conference tournaments. Otherwise, we will experience some bubbles popping with bid stealing.

Let's get to the seeding

The Seeding

1 Seeds

Purdue
Connecticut
Houston
North Carolina

2 Seeds

Tennessee
Arizona
Iowa State
Marquette

3 Seeds

Creighton
Kentucky
Duke
Baylor

4 Seeds

Alabama
Auburn
Kansas
Illinois

5 Seeds

San Diego State
Clemson
BYU
South Carolina

6 Seeds

Dayton
Wisconsin
St. Mary's
Utah State

7 Seeds

Washington State
Gonzaga
Texas Tech
Nevada

8 Seeds

Florida
Northwestern
Texas
Boise State

9 Seeds

Nebraska
Colorado State
Michigan State
Oklahoma

10 Seeds

Florida Atlantic
Mississippi State
TCU
Seton Hall

11 Seeds

Colorado
St. John's
Villanova*
New Mexico*
Indiana State*
Virginia*

12 Seeds

Drake (Missouri Valley)
James Madison (Sun Belt)
McNeese State (Southland)
Princeton (Ivy)

13 Seeds

Samford (Southern)
Grand Canyon (WAC)
UC Irvine (Big West)
Akron (MAC)

14 Seeds

Louisiana Tech (CUSA)
Vermont (America East)
College of Charleston (Coastal)
Colgate (Patriot)

15 Seeds

Oakland (Horizon)
Morehead State (Ohio Valley)
Montana (Big Sky)
South Dakota State (Summit)

16 Seeds

Stetson (Atlantic Sun)
Quinnipiac (Metro Atlantic)
Longwood* (Big South)
Norfolk State* (Mid-Eastern)
Southern* (SWAC)
Wagner* (Northeast)

*Play-in games

Bold = Conference Champions

First Four Out

Texas A&M
Wake Forest
Pittsburgh
Providence

Next Four Out

Iowa
Cincinnati
Ohio State
Mississippi

My last four teams in are currently Villanova, New Mexico, Indiana State, and Virginia. As much as it pained me to put Virginia in there, their resumé is just good enough to sneak in there. However, if there are any bid stealers, they will find themselves missing out.

Now for what you have all been waiting for: The bracket! There are so many interesting rules related to bracketeering, so there may be some seed changes and weird locations, but here we go.

The Bracket

Midwest Region (Detroit)

1 Purdue
16 Longwood/Wagner

8 Texas
9 Colorado State

5 Clemson
12 Princeton

4 Kansas
13 Samford

6 Utah State
11 Colorado

3 Creighton
14 Colgate

7 Texas Tech
10 Mississippi State

2 Marquette
15 Oakland

West Region (Los Angeles)

1 North Carolina
16 Stetson

8 Florida
9 Michigan State

5 BYU
12 Drake

4 Alabama
13 Akron

6 Dayton
11 New Mexico/Indiana State

3 Baylor
14 Louisiana Tech

7 Nevada
10 Florida Atlantic

2 Tennessee
15 South Dakota State

East Region (Boston)

1 Connecticut
16 Norfolk State/Southern

8 Boise State
9 Nebraska

5 South Carolina
12 McNeese State

4 Illinois
13 Grand Canyon

6 Wisconsin
11 St. John's

3 Kentucky
14 Charleston

7 Gonzaga
10 TCU

2 Arizona
15 Morehead State

South Region (Dallas)

1 Houston
16 Quinnipiac

8 Northwestern
9 Oklahoma

5 San Diego State
12 James Madison

4 Auburn
13 UC Irvine

6 St. Mary's
11 Villanova/Virginia

3 Duke
14 Vermont

7 Washington State
10 Seton Hall

2 Iowa State
15 Montana

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.

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