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Men’s College Basketball: NCAA Tourney Bracketology 5.0 (2023)

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Welcome to my fifth bracketology article this season. March is in full swing, and with it comes conference tournaments. The first auto-bid will be awarded tonight, and then they’ll only continue rolling in. From here out, I will be providing more frequent updates as the bubble takes firmer shape. There is still a lot of value in the current market and future odds, so I will be sure to address that as well later on in this article.

NCAA Men’s Tournament: Bracketology 5.0

Now, you may wonder what the point of bracketology is, so let me tell you. Participating in this practice is a great way to identify better value for teams’ betting futures. You may be high on a team, but an understanding of their seeding and potential opponents is critical, and I’m here in an attempt to give you the most accurate projections to determine just that.

Bracketology also gives you an early introduction to the potential Cinderellas of the field, allowing you to be a step ahead of everyone else and saving you valuable research time once the bracket is released.

Before I get started, let me give you the rundown. This is an exciting bracketology for me, as I will be providing matchups from here moving forward. If you’re anything like me, it’s always interesting to go through fake brackets to get a sense of where you’re at on a team.

Before conference-champion auto-bids start to roll in, I will provide my tournament “locks.” These are teams that have left no doubt that they are tournament-worthy, even though they may not have clinched a bid outright yet. I’ll take a conservative approach here, however, because college basketball is like the Wild West sometimes, and any team’s season can turn on a dime.

Finally, I’m building this bracket based on today’s standings rather than by projecting where it might be in the future. But that’s enough rambling; let’s get to the bracket.

Locks

  • Houston (28-2)
  • Alabama (26-4)
  • Purdue (25-5)
  • Kansas (25-5)
  • UCLA (26-4)
  • Tennessee (22-8)
  • Saint Mary’s (25-6)
  • Arizona (25-5)
  • Texas (22-8)
  • UConn (23-7)
  • Baylor (22-8)
  • Virginia (22-6)
  • Marquette (24-6)
  • Gonzaga (26-5)
  • Kansas State (23-7)
  • Indiana (20-10)
  • San Diego State (23-6)
  • Xavier (22-8)
  • TCU (20-10)
  • Miami FL (23-6)
  • Creighton (19-11)
  • Kentucky (20-10)

You’d think that with Selection Sunday less than two weeks away, there would be a lot more teams that have locked up their at-large bid. But there is a thin line between a 7 and 11 seed right now, and any few losses could put a team at risk. If you look at Rutgers, they are a team that seemed locked in as a top-8 seed. After collapsing to Minnesota, their at-large resume isn’t looking all too pretty. A loss to Northwestern and an early exit in the Big Ten tourney could send them packing.

If you are looking for some NCAA Tournament trends, you are in the right place. Dating back to at least 2008, every champion not named UConn has ranked in the top seven from January 1st to Selection Sunday, with 10 of the 12 ranking in the top five. This comes from Bart Torvik, and the data only goes back until ‘08. The current teams from January 1st to now rank as such:

  1. Alabama
  2. Tennessee
  3. Houston
  4. UCLA
  5. Saint Mary’s
  6. Texas A&M
  7. Baylor

I’ve been beating the drum for Saint Mary’s (+4500 on BetRivers) and Texas A&M (+9000 on BetRivers) for a while now and will continue doing so until markets adjust. Some teams just outside those rankings include Creighton, Gonzaga, and San Diego State – teams I am in on. Keep track of this leading up until Selection Sunday because, obviously, rankings can change, but I am more than confident following this trend again when filling out my bracket.

Let’s get to the seeding.

The Seeding

1 Seeds

  • Houston
  • Alabama
  • Kansas
  • Purdue

2 Seeds

  • UCLA
  • Texas
  • Baylor
  • Arizona

3 Seeds

  • Tennessee
  • Kansas State
  • Marquette
  • Gonzaga

4 Seeds

  • Indiana
  • UConn
  • Virginia
  • Xavier

5 Seeds

  • Creighton
  • Saint Mary’s
  • TCU
  • Miami

6 Seeds

  • San Diego State
  • Maryland
  • Iowa State
  • Illinois

7 Seeds

  • Kentucky
  • Michigan State
  • Northwestern
  • Texas A&M

8 Seeds

  • Iowa
  • Providence
  • Missouri
  • Duke

9 Seeds

  • Arkansas
  • Pittsburgh
  • Rutgers
  • Florida Atlantic

10 Seeds

  • North Carolina State
  • USC
  • Boise State
  • Memphis

11 Seeds

  • Nevada
  • West Virginia
  • Arizona State*
  • Wisconsin*
  • Mississippi State*
  • Auburn*

12 Seeds

  • Oral Roberts (Summit)
  • College of Charleston (Colonial)
  • VCU(A10)
  • Liberty (ASun)

13 Seeds

  • Marshall (Sun Belt)
  • Kent State (MAC)
  • Drake (MVC)
  • Utah Valley (WAC)

14 Seeds

  • Yale (Ivy)
  • Furman (Southern)
  • Montana State (Big Sky)
  • Youngstown State (Horizon)

15 Seeds

  • UC Irvine (Big West)
  • Iona (MAAC)
  • UNC-Asheville (Big South)
  • Colgate (Patriot)

16 Seeds

  • Vermont (AE)
  • Morehead State (OVC)
  • Norfolk State* (MEAC)
  • Texas A&M Corpus Christi* (Southland)
  • Grambling State* (SWAC)
  • Merrimack* (Northeast)

*Play-in games
Bold = Conference Champions

First Four Out

  • Oklahoma State
  • Utah State
  • Michigan
  • North Carolina

Next Four Out

  • New Mexico
  • Oregon
  • Clemson
  • Penn State

Bracket

South (Louisville)

1 Houston
16 Grambling State/Merrimack

8 Duke
9 Missouri

5 Creighton
12 Liberty

4 Indiana
13 Marshall

6 Iowa State
11 Nevada

3 Tennessee
14 Youngstown State

7 Northwestern
10 Memphis

2 Arizona
15 UC Irvine

West (Las Vegas)

1 Purdue
16 Vermont

8 Providence
9 Florida Atlantic

5 Miami
12 Oral Roberts

4 Xavier
13 Utah Valley

6 San Diego State
11 Auburn/Wisconsin

3 Gonzaga
14 Yale

7 Texas A&M
10 North Carolina State

2 UCLA
15 Colgate

Midwest (Kansas City)

1 Kansas
16 Morehead State

8 Arkansas
9 Rutgers

5 TCU
12 College of Charleston

4 UConn
13 Drake

6 Kentucky
11 West Virginia

3 Marquette
14 Furman

7 Maryland
10 USC

2 Texas
15 UNC-Asheville

East (New York)

1 Alabama
16 Norfolk State/TAMCC

8 Iowa
9 Pittsburgh

5 Saint Mary’s
12 VCU

4 Virginia
13 Kent State

6 Illinois
11 Arizona State/Mississippi State

3 Kansas State
14 Montana State

7 Michigan State
10 Boise State

2 Baylor
15 Iona

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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.