Mercury vs. Sky: WNBA Finals Game 4 Betting Pick for Sunday, October 17th (2021)
The 2021 WNBA seasons is rapidly nearing its close. The No. 6 Chicago Sky are up 2-1 over the No. 5 Phoenix Mercury, and they just won Game 3 by a 36-point margin, the largest in WNBA Finals history. They seem well on their way to a championship, but that’s led to the books listing them as heavy favorites, so we must look elsewhere to find betting value.
Here is my top betting pick for Sunday’s WNBA action.
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YTD: 17-14-0 (+2.32u)
Either Team to Win by 5 or Less | +165 (.5u) at DK Sportsbook
Let’s go out with a bang, shall we? Instead of playing the total, spread, or moneyline, I’m rolling with a line from the Winning Margin – 3 Way market on DraftKings. This line presents solid value despite Phoenix’s blowout loss in Game 3.
The Mercury and Sky have met six times this season, and this line is a respectable 3-3 across those games. That means the empirical odds (50%) are much better than the implied odds (37.7%). Of course, this line is only 1-2 in this series, and it only hit when Phoenix’s won Game 2 by five points in overtime. Fortunately, we find ourselves in a very similar situation here — the Mercury’s backs are against the wall as they try to dig out of a one-game hole.
I usually lean heavily on math for these picks, but I’m going with my gut here. That said, the math does support this play. My model generates two spreads, one based on efficiency metrics and the other based on player win shares, and both project this as a one or two-point game.
Betting against Diana Taurasi burned us in Game 2. I suspect that she and Brittney Griner will be clutch enough to keep the Mercury close and cash this prop.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.