Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders Odds and Game Pick (2020)
The finale to this week’s NFL Saturday tripleheader features two teams who are still alive in the AFC postseason chase — albeit with very differing outlooks.
The 9-5 Miami Dolphins are set to travel west to the Sin City and battle the 7-7 Las Vegas Raiders. As the current seven-seed in the AFC, the Dolphins control their own destiny to reach the postseason for the first time since 2016. Meanwhile, the Raiders are all but mathematically eliminated at this point, and keeping their faint hopes alive starts with taking care of a team in front of them. The betting odds for this matchup favor the visitors.
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Details
- Opening Lines: Dolphins -2.5; O/U
- Location: Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, NV
- Start Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
- Television: NFL Network
- Last Meeting: September 23, 2018 – The Dolphins defeated the Raiders 28-20 in Miami.
- Attendance: No fans will be allowed to attend.
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MIA
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-3
-104
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o48
-110
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-158
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LV
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+3
-118
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u48
-110
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+134
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Overview
It might not always be pretty, but the Dolphins keep on winning football games. At this point, if Brian Flores doesn’t win Coach of the Year, what are we even doing? Miami is operating ahead of schedule, thanks to a potent defense, prolific special teams, and an offense that does just enough. Rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t wowed anyone yet, but he doesn’t cost the Dolphins games, either. Miami has many offensive reinforcements that could return this week, including wideouts DeVante Parker and Jakeem Grant, running back Myles Gaskin, and tight end Mike Gesicki.
The Raiders are another young team that many believe has overachieved this season. That said, their young defense has been their Achilles’ heel. The secondary was suspect to begin the year, and injuries have depleted the unit even more in recent weeks. Speaking of injuries, Marcus Mariota may start at quarterback for Las Vegas this week after Derek Carr suffered a significant groin injury last Thursday night. Mariota actually played really well in relief last week, but Miami’s defense figures to provide a much more formidable test than that of the Los Angeles Chargers.
Trends
- Dolphins 2020 Betting Trends: 11-3 ATS; 5-9 to the Over
- Raiders 2020 Betting Trends: 7-7 ATS; 10-3-1 to the Over
- The Dolphins are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six head-to-head meetings against the Raiders.
- The Over has hit in each of the last six head-to-head meetings between the Dolphins and Raiders.
- In the last ten years, Raiders’ games against defenses allowing more than 17.15 yards per point are 30-10-1 to the Over.
Prop Bet
Dolphins Team Total: Over 24.5 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Dolphins are averaging 25.1 points per game on the season, a mark that barely exceeds their team total of 24.5 for Saturday’s game in Vegas. My support for the Over on this prop bet is far more a fade of the Raiders defense than it is an endorsement of Miami’s offense. Las Vegas has surrendered over 30 points per game on the season, and the defense has been even worse in recent weeks. One would have to go all the way back to early November to find the last time the Raiders held a team to fewer than 28 points. Four of the five games since have seen the opponent top 30 points. Marcus Mariota played well last week, but if he starts, any turnovers could lead to quick Miami points as well. Look for the Dolphins to be at or near the 30-point threshold in this one.
Bottom Line
This game has seen limited line movement, both in terms of the spread and total. The opening line of Dolphins -2.5 got nudged up just half a point to an even field goal, while the total has bounced back and forth between the opening 47 and 48 throughout the week.
It’s impossible to fully trust the Raiders in this spot with a wretched defense and backup quarterback (albeit one of the best backups in the league). Miami is my preferred side here, and any number of 2.5 or better is worth a play. With the current line of Dolphins -3 offering even-money value, I can be coaxed into laying the field goal as well.
I’m also inclined to like the Over on 47.5 total points. I just don’t see the Las Vegas defense stopping the Dolphins, especially with several key offensive contributors expected to return. Miami won’t eclipse the over/under on their own, but I’m confident that the Raiders will make up the difference.
Picks: Dolphins -3 and Over 47.5 (+100 and -118 respectively at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.