Miami Dolphins at New York Jets Odds and Game Pick (2020)
The Miami Dolphins will look to get off the mat against the NFL’s doormat a week after the Tua Train came to a screeching halt in Denver.
Coming off a disappointing 20-13 loss to the Broncos, the Miami Dolphins travel to New York as 7-point favorites in a rematch with the awful Jets. Will the Dolphins rebound from last week’s setback, or will the Jets make a bid at securing their first win of the season? Let’s breakdown this rivalry matchup.
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Details
- Opening Line: Miami -7
- Last meeting: October 18, 2020, Dolphins 24-0
|
MIA
|
-7
-105
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o44
-108
|
-310
|
|
| VIEW PICKS |
NYJ
|
+7
-115
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u44
-112
|
+248
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View consensus picks and matchup notes from top betting experts for the Dolphins vs. Jets >>
Overview
Let’s flashback to last month, when the Dolphins thoroughly dominated the Jets in Miami. Ryan Fitzpatrick was the quarterback for that game, and that ended up being his last game as the starter.
Dolphins head coach Brian Flores surprised many the following week when they decided to start rookie Tua Tagovailoa over Ryan Fitzpatrick. They surprised us even more by winning three straight games in impressive fashion over the Rams, Cardinals, and Chargers with Tagovailoa under center.
Regression was inevitable for Miami. As impressive as Miami’s defense had looked, the Dolphins benefitted from a lot of unsustainable factors like turnovers and strong starting field position. I’m not sure if the Dolphins fell back to earth against Denver, but they were definitely slapped in the face with some serious regression.
Miami’s offense failed to get going after taking a 7-0 lead early, resulting in Tagovailoa being benched for Fitzpatrick in the closing stages. “FitzMagic†almost saved Miami with a late-game rally until “FitzTragic†ended the game with an interception in the end zone. Miami accumulated just 223 yards of offense, while the defense gave up 459 yards to an average Broncos offense.
Despite Tagovailoa’s struggles, Flores committed to his rookie as his starter for this week’s matchup.
The Jets will also most likely be starting a different quarterback in the rematch between these AFC East foes. Sam Darnold practiced in full and is expected to play Sunday after missing time with an injury to his shoulder. Joe Flacco started the first meeting against the Dolphins, completing just 21-of-44 passes for 186 yards and an interception.
It’s fair to wonder whether Darnold, the former No. 3 overall pick, is even much of an upgrade over the washed-up Flacco. Darnold’s been putrid in a critical season with the team, and it’s fair to wonder how confident he’ll be resuming the starting duties.
The good news for Darnold is he should finally have the weapons he was supposed to have all season. Receivers Denzel Mims, Jamison Crowder, and Breshad Perriman all appear to be healthy for Sunday’s showdown. The bad news? Darnold will be behind an offensive line that gave up three sacks and 10 QB hits in the first meeting against Miami.
Miami’s defense’s greatest weakness is against the run, where they allow 4.8 yards per attempt. However, the Jets don’t have a single strength on offense and aren’t built to take advantage. The Jets rank 19th in rushing and will be without rookie tailback La’Mical Perine. That means we’ll see a ton of grandpa Frank Gore, which isn’t good for what’s already the league’s worst offense.
Bottom Line
Does Tua get back on track? That’s the key question when evaluating this game. The matchup is great. New York has major issues at cornerback and has allowed 7.5 net yards per attempt this season (fourth-most in the NFL). The Jets have also given up 150 first downs on passing plays, which means Tagovailoa should be able to move the chains with regularity.
Coming off a loss and with their playoff hopes very much alive, I expect Flores to have his team ready to play and motivated. Laying seven points on a road favorite in a divisional game is always a little risky. But we’re also talking about the 2020 New York Jets, a team whose only consistent quality is its futility. I’d wait until closer to kickoff to see if you can get this line below a touchdown, but I’m willing to lay the seven with Miami.
The Pick: Dolphins -7
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @RealMattBarbato.