Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds & Game Pick (2021)
I feel bad for the fans in London. Twice a year, the NFL comes to town, and the fans across the pond are usually subjected to watching a lousy game.
Lousy might be understating the Sunshine State showdown between the dumpster fire Jacksonville Jaguars and the inept Miami Dolphins. But bad matchups haven’t stopped fans from attending these games, and it sure won’t stop us from betting on it.
Let’s break it down:
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Details
- Opening line: Miami -2.5
- Current line: Miami -3
- Total: 47
Jaguars are still seeking their first win.
It’s still early in the week, but it seems as if Jaguars coach Urban Meyer has avoided publicly embarrassing himself and his team. That in itself should serve as a win for the Jaguars.
But are the Jaguars as bad as their record indicates? Well, yes and no.
The Jags certainly aren’t a good team. But that doesn’t mean they don’t do good things. Jacksonville averages 5.7 yards per play and 5.3 yards per run. They rank 2nd in rushing DVOA. But, when the team commits to James Robinson, good things have happened. And rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence has improved each week after a difficult start.
However, the Jaguars have a few critical flaws. The first is their pass defense, which yields 8.8 net yards per attempt and ranks dead last in passing defense DVOA. The second is a league-worst -10 turnover margin. Jacksonville only has one takeaway all season. While that’s a sign of a lousy defense, there’s also a tiny element of luck involved. Positive regression is headed Jacksonville’s way in the turnover department.
And while Jacksonville’s pass defense has been miserable, it hasn’t been the front seven’s fault. Jacksonville has generated pressure on 27.5% of opponent dropbacks, which is above league average. The Jags have only eight sacks to show for it, along with 41 missed tackles.
The Jaguars are bad, but it’s mainly because they do it to themselves.
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Can the return of Tua jumpstart Miami?
After coming into the 2021 season as a playoff hopeful, very little has gone right for Miami. After knocking off the New England Patriots, 17-16, in Week 1, Miami has alternated between competitive losses and blowout defeats.
A big problem has been under center, where Jacoby Brissett took over for Tua Tagovailoa the last three weeks after he was placed on short-term injured reserve after breaking his ribs in Week 2. The good news? Tagovailoa is set to return from IR, which gives him a shot at playing in London.
Miami could use a jolt offensively, as it ranks 31st in the league with an average of 4.4 yards per play. Miami’s offensive line is a central weak point, as the unit has surrendered 16 sacks in this young season. In addition, Miami’s inability to protect whoever’s under center has resulted in underwhelming campaigns for DeVante Parker, Will Fuller, and rookie Jaylen Waddle.
While the offense is still a mess, the biggest problem for Miami has been its dropoff defensively. After being one of the league’s best units last season, the Dolphins rank 21st in yards per play allowed and have given up the third-most points in the league this season. Part of Miami’s fall off is a result of worse turnover luck. A unit that recorded 29 takeaways last season only has six this year.
Brian Flores’ group has primarily struggled in the trenches. Miami is allowing 4.4 yards per rush attempt and has generated pressure on just 23.2% of dropbacks, and has only nine sacks to show for it.
Bottom Line
I hate doing this. I do. If you want to stay away from this game entirely, I don’t blame you. It’s ugly. But I think the Jaguars get their first win of the season in London, which would be rather fitting.
First off, I don’t think it matters who’s behind center for Miami. The Dolphins offensive line hasn’t protected either passer, and Jacksonville’s pass rush could breakthrough against this unit. I don’t think Miami has the goods to expose what’s been a miserable Jaguars secondary, especially if Parker misses the game with a hamstring injury.
Miami may try to go conservative and emphasize the ground game to keep Tua protected. But that doesn’t worry me either. The Dolphins rank 26th in rush offense DVOA and have failed to get a steady running game going throughout the season.
As I said, I’m not too fond of it. And I think Miami has the coaching advantage in Flores vs. Meyer. But you have to believe the Jaguars know this is one of their few chances to win a game, right? So I’m going to hope for a max effort and take the points.
I need a shower.
PICK: Jaguars +3
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.