College Football: Miami Hurricanes vs Florida Gators Sports Betting Guide

The 2019 college football season begins with a highly anticipated matchup between two teams coming off two very different seasons. 

The Miami Hurricanes started last season ranked #8 in the country, yet finished the season 7-6, and for a second straight year got beaten badly by Wisconsin in a bowl game. Just like in 2018, the ‘Canes will begin their season against an SEC opponent in front of a national audience. Last year they were shellacked by LSU.

Meanwhile, the Florida Gators saw a six-win improvement from 2017, finishing 2018 10-3 and ranked #7 in the AP poll to end the season. With Dan Mullen coming back for his second season as the Gators’ head coach, thoughts in Gainesville are pointing toward an SEC championship game appearance and maybe even more.

Check out our Sports Betting Guide for strategy tips & advice >>

• Opening Lines: The Gators opened as a 7.5 point favorite and the O/U started at 50.5. Since the announcement of Jarren Williams as the starter for the ‘Canes, the O/U has dropped 3.5 points.
• Current Line: Gators -7
• O/U: 47
• Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
• Start Time: 7 pm ET
• Television: ESPN
• Last Meeting: September 7, 2013 – Miami defeated Florida 21-16 in Miami Gardens 

Overview

Miami comes into the game with many more questions than Florida. First, there is the QB situation, a problem for the ‘Canes all of 2018 that looks like it’s going to be a problem for them yet again. With Malik Rosier leaving, the ‘Canes acquired Tate Martell from Ohio State, but he did nothing this summer to separate himself from N’Kosi Perry, who had a rough first season in Miami, or Jarren Williams, the redshirt freshman who was recently announced as the starter for this game. 

They also switched coaches, with Mark Richt leaving suddenly at the end of last season, and Manny Diaz going from defensive coordinator to head coach. In one of his first moves, he brought in ex-Alabama offensive coordinator Dan Enos to take over as play-caller. For the last two seasons, Richt was doubling down, taking on head coaching and play-calling duties. So what does all this actually mean for a ‘Canes offense which struggled mightily last season? It’s hard to say. But while the offense is a giant question mark, there is no denying that the defense will be solid again.

While the ‘Canes are undergoing their coaching transitions this year, the Florida Gators saw what a difference a year can make when bringing in the right guy to run a program. With Dan Mullen taking over, there weren’t many problems for the Gators in 2018 as they went from a four-win team in 2017 to a 10 win team in 2018.

QB Feleipe Franks threw 24 touchdowns and just six interceptions on the season. He will have an array of weapons at wide receiver in Van Jefferson, Kadarius Toney, and Trevon Grimes, while Lamichale Perine will be back as the starting running back this season after almost 1,000 total yards last season as a backup.

On the defensive end, the Gators return 7 starters including cornerback duo CJ Henderson and Marco Wilson. Florida comes into the season opener ranked #8 in the AP Preseason Poll with good reason. Simply put, they’re a very good football team.

Trends

It’s a new season, but let’s look at how each team ended the 2018 campaign.

Florida is 7-3 ATS in their last 10.

Miami is 3-7 ATS in their last 10.

In their last three games against each other Miami is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS.

The over has hit in eight of the last 10 games for the Gators, but only two of the last 10 for the ‘Canes.

Miami ended last season winning their final two regular-season games before getting walloped by Wisconsin 35-3 in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl. 

Florida won their last four games including a 41-15 win over #8 Michigan in the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl.

Prediction

Even with all the new additions, I think there are simply too many question marks around Miami to confidently pick them. Who’s to say how Jarren Williams will perform when the lights are shining brightest when we haven’t even gotten a look at him against inferior competition? Despite it being a neutral site game, the game is being played in Gator country, which is another disadvantage for a ‘Canes team that is already coming in with a lot of disadvantages.

Because of all of this, I’m taking the Gators and their experience. However, I’m feeling even more confident in the under for this game, which opened at 50.5 and is currently set at 47. I don’t see Florida putting up more than 30 in this game, and frankly, I don’t trust Miami’s offense at all.

Final score prediction: Florida 24 – Miami 14

Check out our Sports Betting Guide for strategy tips & advice >>