Michigan State vs. North Dakota State: NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 15, 2026

The 2026 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first round 2026 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our NCAA Tournament predictions and preview for Michigan State vs. North Dakota State.

2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview: Michigan State vs. North Dakota State

Here are the odds for this opening-round matchup of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Let’s dive into our preview and predictions for this NCAA Tournament matchup.

Michigan State 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Any time Tom Izzo enters March, you have to respect the squad he fronts. The Spartans went 25-6 overall and 15-5 in the Big Ten during the regular season, winning five of their last six games entering postseason play, including road victories at Purdue and Indiana.

This team starts with Jeremy Fears Jr., who leads D-I in assists at 9.1 per game and is capable of getting to the rim. Jaxon Kohler has posted double-digit double-doubles and is one of the best rebounders in the country. Coen Carr is an athlete who finishes at the rim at an elite clip, while Kur Teng has emerged as a reliable perimeter option, shooting better than 38% from deep. It's a solid group.

The Spartans defend and share the ball with the efficiency you expect from an Izzo team. They win on the road, they handle pressure, and they have a coaching staff that consistently extracts maximum effort from depth pieces. Michigan State is making its 28th consecutive NCAA Tournament under Izzo, the longest active streak in hoops. That's not nothing.

Where this team’s ceiling is genuinely uncertain is with its scoring. Fears is a maestro as a distributor, but there are nights where Michigan State needs him to be the bucket-getter, and he is not built that way. The Spartans rank 20th since Feb. 1 with a defense outside the top 40. But when the tournament starts, everyone has a fresh slate, and MSU remained a top-eight team against Quad I opponents this year, capable of stepping up in class. Fears isn't exactly a takeover guy to trust, and a team without a closer usually falls before the Elite Eight. That said, do not count on Izzo finding some magic when March Madness tips.

North Dakota State 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

The Bison have a program-record 27 wins and their best efficiency ranking in years. The five-man shooting depth from beyond the arc is legitimately rare, and the rebounding profile is strong despite not having a lot of size. On the defensive end, North Dakota State has done a nice job of limiting three-point efficiency and keeping opponents off the free-throw line. The Bison do a lot of things well, ranking top 125 in overall offensive and defensive efficiency.

The problem is the competition gap. The Bison have not faced a single top-100 opponent all season, with 107th-ranked St. Thomas their most difficult opponent all year. North Dakota State is also one of the shorter teams in the country, so the Bison will be tested against a power-conference frontcourt in a way their schedule hasn’t prepared them for. The shooting depth gives them a puncher’s chance if the threes are flying, but there’s no real evidence the Bison can compete at this level.

More NCAA Tournament Predictions & Previews

#1 Duke vs. #16 Siena
#8 Ohio State vs. #9 TCU
#5 St. John’s vs. #12 Northern Iowa
#4 Kansas vs. #13 Cal Baptist
#6 Louisville vs. #11 South Florida
#3 Michigan State vs. #14 North Dakota State
#7 UCLA vs. #10 UCF
#2 UConn vs. #15 Furman

#1 Arizona vs. #16 LIU
#8 Villanova vs. #9 Utah State
#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 High Point
#4 Arkansas vs. #13 Hawai’i
#11 Texas vs. North Carolina State
#3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Kennesaw State
#7 Miami (FL) vs. #10 Missouri
#2 Purdue vs. #15 Queens

#16 UMBC vs. Howard
#8 Georgia vs. #9 Saint Louis
#5 Texas Tech vs. #12 Akron
#4 Alabama vs. #13 Hofstra
#11 Miami OH vs. SMU
#3 Virginia vs. #14 Wright State
#7 Kentucky vs. #10 Santa Clara
#2 Iowa State vs. #15 Tennessee State

#16 Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh
#8 Clemson vs. #9 Iowa
#5 Vanderbilt vs. #12 McNeese
#4 Nebraska vs. #13 Troy
#6 North Carolina vs. #11 VCU
#3 Illinois vs. #14 Penn
#7 Saint Mary’s vs. #10 Texas A&M
#2 Houston vs. #15 Idaho

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