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Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints Odds & Game Pick

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Welcome to Wild Card weekend! The first of the NFC games on Sunday, New Orleans versus Minnesota promises to be an exciting affair. Both teams have top eight scoring offenses with elite talents at the running back position in Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook. At just 18.9 points allowed per contest, the Vikings are the number six scoring defense in the league, but you will be hard-pressed to find many who would argue that they have a better defense than the Saints 13th ranked scoring defense. This contest could just as easily turn into an offensive shootout as it could turn into a defensive battle. What is certain is that this will arguably be the most compelling and exciting game of the entire weekend. Let’s dig in.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -7.5 on the New Orleans Saints. The consensus over/under total opened at 47.5 points. The point spread has seen quite a bit of movement but has settled back in at its opening number of -7.5. The over/under total has climbed to 49.5.
  • Current Line: New Orleans -7.5
  • O/U: 49.5
  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
  • Start Time: 1:00 PM EST, Sunday, January 5th
  • Last Meeting: New Orleans defeated Minnesota 30-20 — October 28, 2018

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Vikings at Saints >>

Overview

Minnesota has been an interesting team this season. On one hand, they rank in the top 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense. On the other hand, they have looked inept on both sides of the ball at times this season. The Vikings have lost four of the five games they played against playoff teams, and are going to have their work cut out for them in attempting to beat the Saints at home. Four of the Vikings six losses have come on the road this season. Kirk Cousins averaged 8.6 yards per attempt at home, but 7.7 on the road. His completion percentage also drops from 75.3 to 64.9. Dalvin Cook will be at less than 100 percent for this weekend’s contest but has committed to playing against the Saints. Star linebacker Eric Kendricks returned to practice on Thursday and is also expected to suit up this weekend. Having arguably your two best players banged up for a road playoff game is never the way a team wants to enter the postseason. Minnesota may need yet an improbable play or two to topple the Saints this year.

The New Orleans Saints watched their hopes of a bye week crumble when the Seattle Seahawks took a delay of game penalty on the one-yard line while still in the huddle. San Francisco’s Sunday night victory over Seattle gave them the first seed in the NFC, knocking the Saints down to the third seed despite an identical 13-3 record (the 49ers own the head to head tiebreaker). The Saints have been excellent this season, and their team got even more talented when Dave Gettleman and the New York Giants decided to waive Janoris Jenkins, allowing New Orleans to claim him and bolster one of the best defenses in the NFC. New Orleans has weathered multi-game injuries to superstar players Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara, and still ended up tied for the best record in the NFC. Drew Brees and Michael Thomas both set new NFL records this season. Brees with the passing touchdown record, and single-game completion percentage mark, and Thomas with the new single-season receptions record. Linebacker had long been the weak link of the Saints defense, but the improvement of Demario Davis in the middle of the field has taken the Saints from a defense that may belong to a contender, to one that belongs to a Super Bowl favorite. Their offense has been strong for years. This is perhaps the best defense Drew Brees has had the privilege of watching from the sidelines.

Trends

  • New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in their last five contests against Minnesota.
  • Over is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 contests played between these two teams.
  • Minnesota is 9-7 ATS on the season.
  • Minnesota is 4-4 ATS on the road this season
  • New Orleans is 11-5 ATS on the season.
  • New Orleans is 4-4 ATS at home this season..
  • Minnesota is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 contests.
  • Minnesota is 1-3 ATS in their four contests as a road underdog this season.
  • Minnesota is 4-14 in their last 18 contests against teams with winning records.
  • Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in their last five road contests against teams with winning records.
  • New Orleans is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 contests.
  • New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests.
  • New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests against teams with winning records.
  • New Orleans is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 contests against the NFC.
  • New Orleans is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 contests as a home favorite.
  • New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests as a favorite.
  • Over is 5-0 in Minnesota’s last five road contests.
  • Over is 6-2 in Minnesota’s last eight contests.
  • Under is 11-5 in Minnesota’s last 16 contests against the NFC.
  • Over is 4-1 in Minnesota’s last five contests against teams with winning records.
  • Over is 7-3 in Minnesota’s last 10 road contests against teams with winning home records.
  • Over is 4-1 in New Orleans’ last five contests against the NFC.
  • Over is 5-2 in New Orleans’ last seven contests.
  • Over is 5-2 in New Orleans’ last seven contests as a favorite.
  • Over is 6-2 in New Orleans’ last eight playoff home contests.
  • Over is 4-1 in New Orleans’ last five contests against teams with winning records.

Prop Bets

Michael Thomas over 8.5 receptions (-126)
‘All the monies’. This is quite a perplexing line that everyone with a pulse should jump on immediately at FanDuel. The juice is currently heavily on the over at -126, and for good reason. Xavier Rhodes has struggled in coverage all season allowing a 76.5 percent catch rate, almost 20 percent higher than any mark in his career before this season. He will be drawing the number one receiver in the entire NFL and a player who has an 81 percent catch rate. Thomas dropped just three of his 184 targets this season. 8.5 receptions is a number one would assign to Thomas if they were playing a team they were expected to blowout, thus limiting the need or desire to pass the ball in the second half. While there is a probability that this contest goes that way, there is a much higher probability that this contest stays competitive enough to warrant Thomas getting fed throughout the contest. Thomas cleared 8.5 receptions in 11 of his 16 contests this season. He averaged 9.31 receptions per contest on the season and 9.5 receptions per game against teams that made the playoffs. Thomas is a strong bet to haul in double-digit receptions in this contest, making this line an extreme value. Lock this in as a multi-unit play at FanDuel immediately.

New Orleans Saints team total over 28.5 (-110)
New Orleans has scored 30 or more points in 11 of their 16 contests this season. While this line is still listed at 29.5 at some of the books in our consensus, it is listed at 28.5 at PointsBet. The Saints are a strong bet to clear their team total for this contest, and that is likely correlated to why sharp action has continued to pour in on the over for the full game. As seen above, most of the trends for this contest suggest that the over is the smart play. The Saints have scored 34 or more points in six of their last seven contests. The consensus over/under for this contest is trending towards being pushed up to 50 points, which could result in an increase to the Saints team total. Lock this one in as a one-unit play at PointsBet immediately before the line changes.

Bottom Line

The consensus point spread for this contest has gone for a ride. After opening at -7.5 on the Saints, it was quickly bet up to -8. It would then jump all the way to -9.5 due to significant sharp action. With the probability of a Vikings cover way up over 60 percent at -9.5, that number was quickly slammed by sharps who were happy to lay partial unit action for a potential middle. The Saints are obviously the better team in this contest, but spread betting is about more than just which team has a higher probability to win straight up.

Minnesota was able to beat just one playoff team all season, but lost by more than seven points just once in their four losses to teams that made the postseason. The Saints only beat one playoff team by more than seven points, and that was against the Titans in Week 16 when Tennessee chose to rest their starters. There appears to be significant value on the Saints at -7.5, especially when the trends are taken into account. Minnesota is 1-4 against the spread in their last five contests against teams with winning records. New Orleans, on the other hand, is 4-1 against the spread both in their last five contests, and their last five contests against teams with winning records. Buying points and moving this line down to -6.5 at -140 at FanDuel is the suggested path here, as having the spread under the seven-point mark significantly increases the win probability. Take the extra cushion and make this a one or two-unit play.

Pick: New Orleans Saints -6.5 (-140)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.