Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers Odds & Game Pick
The Divisional Round kicks off with a matchup between two of the league’s best defenses, and two of the league’s better quarterbacks with a lot to prove. After a huge upset over the Saints in the Wild Card Round, the Vikings will travel to San Francisco to take on another 13-3 opponent in the 49ers. Jimmy Garoppolo will be making his first career playoff start, yet his team will still be a touchdown favorite over Minnesota. The key matchup in the game will likely be between the Vikings’ offensive line and 49ers’ front seven as Minnesota tries to get Dalvin Cook going and give Kirk Cousins time to get the ball to his playmakers.
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Details
- Opening Lines: FanDuel had the odds open as 49ers -7.5; O/U 46.5. The line is hovering around the key number, while the total has dropped two points.
- Current Line: 49ers -7
- O/U: 44.5
- Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
- Start Time: 4:35 pm ET
- Television: NBC
- Last Meeting: September 9, 2018 – The Vikings defeated the 49ers 24-16 in Minnesota.
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Overview
Even though just about everyone in the world doubted them last week, the Vikings went into New Orleans and took down the 13-3 Saints in overtime. But just because they did it once, doesn’t mean Vegas is expecting them to do it again. For the second straight week, the Vikings find themselves touchdown or more road underdogs, this time against the number one seed in the NFC. The Vikings’ zone run-blocking scheme will be put to the test this week against a 49ers’ front seven that is only getting healthier. Minnesota finished sixth in the league in rushing yards per game, which was a key component to their success throughout the season. Last week, against the Saints, Dalvin Cook ran the ball 28 times for 94 yards and two touchdowns.
The 49ers’ defense isn’t known for their run-stopping ability, and rank just 17th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. However, the 49ers’ defense is only getting stronger. Linebacker Kwon Alexander was cleared by doctors to participate in the game, and Dee Ford and Jacquiski Tartt have all been practicing as well. The insertion of all three back into the lineup would be a huge boost for a 49ers’ defense which gave up the second-fewest yards per game during the regular season at 281.8. They also finished tied for first in yards allowed per play and gave up the least passing yards of any defense in the league.
This means that Kirk Cousins will again have to prove himself after briefly silencing doubters with last week’s victory over the Saints. It would be helpful if his number one target, Adam Thielen, were able to play this week as he was huge for the Vikings after fumbling on Minnesota’s first offensive possession of the game. His catch in overtime set up the game-winning touchdown as he went on to finish the game with seven catches for 129 yards.
But Cousins isn’t the only one who will be feeling the heat. Jimmy Garoppolo is making his first postseason start and with all the money that the 49ers spent on him, and considering how well the regular season went in San Francisco, the expectations are high. The 49ers finished the regular season ranked second in points and rush yards per game, and fourth in the league in total yards per game. If there was any weakness on the offense, it was in the passing attack which finished just 13th in the league. Jimmy G will be tested against a Minnesota secondary which gave up just 208 yards to Drew Brees last week and turned the Saints over twice.
Trends
- The Vikings are 10-7 ATS this season.
- The 49ers are 10-6 ATS this season.
- The total has gone over in nine of the Vikings’ 17 games.
- The total has gone over in eight of the 49ers 16 games this season.
- The 49ers are 4-4 ATS at home this season.
- The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
- The 49ers are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games as the favorite.
- The total has gone over in five of the Vikings’ last six road games.
Prop Bet
49ers under 26 total points (-108)
The Vikings’ defense is certainly coming off a high from last week’s victory over the Saints, and there is a good chance this could be a letdown spot for them. The same thing happened to them two years ago after the Minneapolis Miracle, so head coach Mike Zimmer can easily use that as motivation to let up this week. There is also the fact that both teams are going to want to run the ball. Both teams are going to want to control the pace of the game and rely heavily on their workhorses to get the job done. When you factor in that this is Jimmy G’s first playoff start, it seems logical that San Francisco won’t eclipse four touchdowns. They should still win the game, but it will probably be a lower scoring affair than many are expecting.
Bottom Line
It’s Jimmy G’s first postseason start as a quarterback and there is a lot of pressure on the 49ers to perform as the NFC’s number one seed. The Vikings are coming off a thrilling victory where they were able to show just how good they can be when they have all their weapons available. The 49ers’ defense is healthier this week than it has been for most of the season which could be a devastating blow to the Vikings’ offense considering how terrible their offensive line has looked against the pass rush at times this season. That being said, the total keeps dropping and rightfully so, and as the score gets lower and lower the margin of victory likely shrinks. This line is sitting right on the key number, but the Vikings’ defense was able to shut down Drew Brees and the red hot Saints’ offense, while the offense started to look right. The defense should continue to play well, and though the offense will likely be overwhelmed all game, a full touchdown is a lot of points.
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Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.