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Minnesota Vikings vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds & Game Pick (2021)

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There will be plenty of purple on the field at M&T Bank Stadium as the Minnesota Vikings travel to Baltimore for a conference crossover with the Baltimore Ravens. The Vikings are coming off a gut-wrenching home loss to the Dallas Cowboys, while the Ravens probably couldn’t wait for their bye week to end after losing to Cincinnati at home two weeks ago.

Which of these purple teams should we back on Sunday? Let’s break it down.

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Details 

  • Opening line: Baltimore -7
  • Current line: Baltimore -6
  • Total: 49.5

Vikings wasting top-end offensive talent 

Minnesota’s offensive gameplan against the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday night was inexplicable. You would’ve thought the Vikings were the team starting a backup quarterback. Instead, the offense was way too conservative and overly reliant on play-action that wasn’t working. Kirk Cousins must be fully aware of his primetime games record because he was not willing to push the ball downfield or take risks.

Anyone savvy enough to score the closing line value and nab the Vikings at +2.5 for Sunday night’s game deserves a refund from Cousins and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak.

Minnesota’s offense should be a juggernaut with Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen. But it ranks just 14th in offensive DVOA and 28th in rushing DVOA. Much of that is due to lousy offensive line play, which plagued the Vikings against the Cowboys in primetime.

Minnesota’s offensive line is pretty poor in run blocking, as this is more an agile unit than a power unit. It ranks 27th in line yards and dead-last in stuff rate but has the best adjusted sack rate in the NFL. The Vikings could struggle to move the ball on the ground against a Ravens front that leads the league in stuff rate and is fourth in average line yards.

The Vikings should throw the ball against a Ravens secondary that isn’t at full strength. Minnesota ranks seventh in pass offense DVOA, while Baltimore ranks 23rd in defensive pass DVOA.

Minnesota’s defense has made an impressive turnaround in 2021, ranking fourth in defensive DVOA and third against the pass. However, this unit just suffered an enormous loss, as star defensive end Danielle Hunter was lost for the season with a torn pectoral muscle. It’s a massive blow to a defense that has the second-most sacks in the NFL to this point.

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Baltimore looks to get back on track following the bye 

The Ravens have had a whole week off to prepare for Minnesota and stew about their poor performance against the Cincinnati Bengals the week prior. In that shocking 41-17 l0ss, the Ravens were carved up for 416 passing yards as Joe Burrow, and the Bengals offense moved the ball at will.

This weekend, the Ravens will face a similar offensive attack against Minnesota, who also has two star receivers and a stud running back. Cousins isn’t the gunslinger Burrow is, but Baltimore’s secondary will have to be better.

Despite a rash of injuries, Baltimore’s offense has been pretty respectable. Lamar Jackson has shown strides as a passer, and the unit ranks ninth in total DVOA on offense. Baltimore’s power running game should have plenty of success against a Vikings front seven that ranks 20th in rush defense DVOA and allows 4.6 yards per carry.

Bottom Line

This is an interesting battle of strengths and weaknesses. The Vikings should have plenty of success through the air, while the Ravens should be able to run the ball at will against a Vikings front that’s now without one of its best players.

With no threat of any bad weather in the forecast, this game screams over to me. If I had to bet the spread, I would go with Baltimore off the bye week against a Vikings team that might come out a little flat after their primetime faceplant. I would not lay a full touchdown with Baltimore, however.

Pick: Over 49.5, lean Ravens -6

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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.