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Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers NFL Sports Betting Guide

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Two teams coming off of impressive Week 1 victories will battle for early NFC North supremacy when the Packers play host to the Vikings on Sunday. The matchup to watch in this game will be the Packers’ run defense vs. the Vikings’ rush offense. The Packers gave up just 46 rushing yards against the Bears, while the Vikings gashed the Falcons for 172 rushing yards.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: FanDuel had the Packers opening as 2.5-point favorites with the over/under at 44.5. There has been very little movement.
  • Current Line: Green Bay Packers -3
  • O/U: 44
  • Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
  • Start Time: 1:00 pm ET
  • Television: FOX
  • Last Meeting: November 25, 2018 – The Vikings defeated the Packers 24-17 in Minnesota.

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Vikings at Packers >>

Overview

From the opening whistle, the Vikings destroyed the Atlanta Falcons in one of the most impressive performances of Week 1. While the stats will show that the Vikings defense gave up 12 points and 304 passing yards, nearly all of that happened after the game was well out of hand and the Vikings had a 28-0 lead. The Vikings offense looked like it was finally doing what it wanted to, with a healthy Dalvin Cook carrying the ball, and Kirk Cousins only needing to throw the ball 10 times in the victory. The offensive line, which was a huge question mark coming into this season, gave up just one sack and paved the way for 172 total rushing yards.

The defense was near-perfect, taking the ball away from the Falcons three times, including two interceptions of Matt Ryan. They also held Julio Jones to just six catches for 31 yards and a late touchdown that meant absolutely nothing.

The Packers’ Week 1 matchup was a different story. Theirs was a defensive slugfest that saw just 13 total points in the 10-3 road victory. The defense was astounding, giving up just 254 yards of total offense, and only allowing points on the Bears’ first drive.  This week they will face an offense that wants to run down their throat, but I doubt a Packers’ defense that gave up just 46 yards rushing in Week 1 will be nervous.

The offense wasn’t as impressive, but it did exactly what it had to do against a stout Bears’ defense. They never turned the ball over and played efficient, mistake-free football for 60 minutes. There are still some serious questions at the wide receiver position, but it’s hard to get a solid grasp of what is in store for the receiving corps after a Week 1 matchup against a great secondary.

Trends

  • Minnesota is 5-2 ATS and 5-1-1 SU in their last seven games against Green Bay.
  • The total has gone under in four of the last six Minnesota road games.
  • Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against the Vikings.
  • The total has gone under in six of Minnesota’s last seven games.
  • The total has gone under in seven of the last nine matchups between the teams.
  • Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last five against the NFC North.
  • Green Bay is 12-3-1 SU in their last 16 September games.

Prop Bet

Packers win by 1-13 pts (+140)
The reason I love this bet is because no matter how much better one team is than the other, the Packers and Vikings always play close games. Last year they tied their first matchup, then the Vikings won the second meeting by seven. In their last 10 matchups, seven have been decided by 13 points or fewer. I really like the Packers to win this game, and now that the spread has moved up to a field goal, this bet removes the opportunity to push and, more importantly, gives you better odds. I struggle to see either of teams winning by more than 10 on Sunday.

Bottom Line

This should be a highly contested game, featuring what should be the two teams battling for the NFC North title. The Packers are getting an extra few days of rest after beating the Bears on opening night, and while the Vikings certainly had time to relax against the Falcons, I think the extra time is going to make all the difference. If Aaron Rodgers is giving a field goal or less at home when his team is equal to or better than the opponent, I’m always going to go with the Pack.

Pick: Green Bay -3

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Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.