Navigate

Mississippi State vs Arkansas: College Football Week 8 Ods & Picks

by |

We are coming off of another fantastic weekend for this College Football totals article series. Several games were absolute no-doubters (Kentucky/Missouri and Miam OH/Western Michigan), and we had a loss like Toledo vs. Ball State that was never close.

We went 5-3 ATS and 1-1 on our Favorite Plays. Temple and North Texas were tracking to a huge total and then fell off a cliff. That happens sometimes.

But, no need to worry, we have a plethora of games to choose from this weekend. Here are all of my top picks for this week. Below we’ll dive into Mississippi State vs Arkansas.

Record:

  • ATS: 9-6 (+2.40 units)
  • Favorite Plays: 3-1

College Football Week 8 Picks: Mississippi State vs Arkansas

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Overview

The average over/under total for a College Football game is 57.5 points, regardless of the teams, pace, weather, etc. The common thought process for most bettors and fans will be to look at the red zone statistics and see if you have two efficient teams who convert a lot of TDs. While it is a fine thought process, it is incredibly archaic. The difference between the best team in the red zone and the worst team in the red zone isn’t that significant because you are only dealing with 20 yards of variance.

Also, looking at efficiency on points on a per-game basis assumes each game will be the same, which is entirely false. You need to look at it from an opportunity standpoint with more variance. We will use several advanced statistics to measure how successful the game environment is: PPO (Points Per Opportunity), IsoPPP (explosive plays), Pace, Rush Rate, Projected PPO and Projected PPO difference.

PPO, also known as finishing drives, is a statistic that extends the “Red zone” from the 20-yard line to the 40-yard line. An incredible 78% of a college football game points are scored inside the opponent’s 40-yard lines. I know you are saying,” Well, yeah, that’s not surprising.” The great thing is that it’s a predictable point of emphasis. We can predict PPO based on the offensive/defensive matchup.

Essentially, you can look at a total and say, “The projected PPO needed for this total is X, and that is a difference of +/- what we need.” This will determine whether or not to lean over or under on a total. Now, the other 22% of points scored are volatile, but that’s where IsoPPP (explosive plays) come in. We can simplify betting over/under by looking at it from a numbers-needed standpoint and building the game script with other advanced statistics.

Glossary

  • PPO (Points Per Opportunity): Points scored on each drive inside an opponent’s 40-yard line
  • IsoPPP: Explosive plays typically over 20 yards for passing plays and over 15 yards for rushing plays
  • PPO Projected: Projected opportunity points that are matchup-adjusted
  • PPO Projected Total Difference: Projected opportunity points difference needed to reach the total – Positive differences would lean over, and negative differences lean under
  • PROE: Pass Rate Over Expectancy
  • Pace of Play: Plays/sec a higher ranking means a faster pace of play
  • Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average pass rate is 40%)
  • Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average Pass rate is 60%)

Let’s dive into the eight games we will target this week.

Mississippi State vs Arkansas | Over 49.5

  • Projected PPO difference +6.6 points
  • Mississippi State Projected Average Overall IsoPPP, Standard Downs IsoPPP, and Passing Downs IsoPPP matchups
  • Arkansas Projected Average Overall IsoPPP and Standard Downs IsoPPP matchups
  • Arkansas Projected Bottom-30 Passing Downs IsoPPP matchup
  • Mississippi State 74th in Pace
  • Arkansas 116th in Pace
  • Mississippi State 79th in PROE on Standard Downs (-.5%)
  • Mississippi State 92nd in PROE on Passing Downs (-3.5%)
  • Arkansas 115th in PROE on Standard Downs (-8.2%)
  • Arkansas 99th in PROE on Passing Downs (-4.2%)

The angle for this game is pretty simple:  The Projected PPO difference of +6.6 points is significant. Even though there will not be elite explosive matchups, average matchups can still produce points. Neither team plays at an above-average pace or has a significant PROE profile, but there will be plenty of opportunities inside the 40s, and the total is average.

Bet: Over 49.0 (-110)


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!