Mississippi State vs. Baylor: 2025 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 16, 2025

The 2025 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first-round 2025 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our top picks and predictions for Mississippi State vs. Baylor.

2025 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks: Mississippi State vs. Baylor

Let’s dive into our top picks and predictions for this opening-round NCAA Tournament matchup.

2025 NCAA Tournament Preview: Mississippi State vs. Baylor

Mississippi State 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview

Mississippi State comes into the NCAA Tournament under coach Chris Jans, who has remarkably won 21+ games in every full season at three different schools. The Bulldogs’ identity has flipped on its head compared to their last two seasons, as they are an offense-first squad, ranking in the top 25 in offensive efficiency.

On that side of the ball, the Bulldogs are led by sophomore guard Josh Hubbard, a ridiculous shotmaker who averages more than 18 points a game, top five in the SEC. The offense is bolstered by KeShawn Murphy and Cameron Matthews’ interior presence, leading to a high offensive rebounding clip and the 15th-best near-proximity scoring percentage in the country. From the perimeter, the Bulldogs don’t offer much. They rank outside the top 300 in 3pt scoring percentage, and no player in the rotation shoots the three above a 34% clip

The defense of Chris Jans’ squad keeps this team’s floor high. At the heart of the D is Cameron Matthews, one of the best interior defenders in the nation, with a top-20 steal rate among DI players and a 6-7 frame that allows him to guard all five positions with a rare combination of strength, quickness, and basketball IQ. The problem is Mississippi State’s perimeter defense. Opponents get 38% of points from beyond the arc. Combine that with a 37% shooting clip from deep, and the kryptonite of the team is obvious. The Bulldogs are 1-9 when allowing opponents to shoot 41% or better from deep and 19-2 in all other games.

What stands out for Mississippi State is a 12-1 non-conference record. Jans’ squad handled Memphis, Vanderbilt, and SMU, all on the road. The Bulldogs’ field goal attempt rate is top 30 in the SEC, but their momentum is bottom 300. It will be interesting to see what prevails — if Mississippi State can start a clean slate for the tournament, or if it has taken a step back as a team.

Baylor 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview

Baylor enters the NCAA Tournament without the highest of hopes after ranking as a unanimous top-10 team in the nation wherever you looked. V.J. Edgecomb is talented but hasn't exactly dazzled. Norchad Omier has transitioned well from Miami, but with his 6-7 frame, it's hard depending on him to be your best player. Robert Wright III is also talented, but leaning on two freshmen for a tournament run is dangerous.

Considering that Baylor faced the most difficult defensive strength of schedule in the nation, it's impressive that the Bears managed a top-20 offensive efficiency ranking. They won't surprise with pure shooting, but they do capitalize on second looks, and they take care of the ball, leading to a top-15 field goal rate. They shoot near the hoop at a top-30 percentage, but it's the defense that calls this team into question.

Ranking 58th in defensive efficiency, Baylor enters with one of the weakest perimeter defenses in the field. They allow teams to shoot over 35 percent from deep and allow a high number of opponent offensive boards while fouling at a relatively high clip. The elephant in the room is how they have the single worst paper tiger metric in basketball, per Haslametrics. The Bears went 3-12 against top-50 teams this year, ranking 72nd on Bart Torvik in such games. Considering that every opponent Baylor faces in the tourney is likely to rank higher than 50, there's little to trust there when Baylor plays up in class.

Perhaps the best thing Baylor has going for it is the fact that Scott Drew is at the helm. Baylor hasn't lost in the first round since 2016 and obviously had the championship run in 2021. But in recent years, the defense has been a limiting factor for Baylor, and it won't be a surprise if that's the case again this year. A first-round exit seems far more likely than a Sweet 16 appearance for Drew's squad.

2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Mississippi State vs. Baylor

Despite finishing 8-10 in SEC play, the Mississippi State Bulldogs still earned a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament. However, the Bulldogs’ only two wins since February 22nd were against an LSU team that was 15th in the conference. The Bulldogs simply haven't performed well against quality teams lately.

Meanwhile, Baylor hasn't earned a top-25 win since knocking off Kansas back on February 1. Neither team has much momentum heading into this game. However, Baylor's got the more compelling offense. The Bears have shot an effective field goal percentage of 51.5% and have hit 34.7% from deep this season. That's significant because the Bulldogs have allowed teams to shoot more than 36% from three this season. I'll take Baylor at -1.5 (-110).

2025 NCAA Tournament Picks: Mississippi State vs. Baylor

Bet: Baylor -1.5 (-110 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Check out all of our 2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket & Betting Coverage >>

2025 NCAA Tournament Sports Betting Picks

For those looking to place bets on the matchups, let's take a look at the early odds and picks for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

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