Missouri vs. Drake: 2025 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 16, 2025

The 2025 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first-round 2025 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our top picks and predictions for Missouri vs. Drake.

2025 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks: Missouri vs. Drake

Let’s dive into our top picks and predictions for this opening-round NCAA Tournament matchup.

2025 NCAA Tournament Preview: Missouri vs. Drake

Missouri 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview

After a nightmarish campaign last season that saw Missouri go winless in SEC play, the Tigers have engineered a remarkable turnaround to reach the NCAA Tournament. Head coach Dennis Gates completely overhauled his roster through the transfer portal and a top-15 recruiting class, transforming the Tigers into one of the nation’s most potent offensive attacks.

Missouri features a versatile scoring attack that pushes the pace while excelling at drawing fouls and converting from beyond the arc. Only 16 DI teams get a higher percentage of points from the charity stripe. Mark Mitchell, Caleb Grill, and Tamar Bates are all double-digit scorers, with Grill's microwave ability earning him SEC Sixth Man of the Year honors. Gates provides an analytically sound approach, with few midrange looks. Missouri also ranks inside the top 10 at scoring off steals. The Tigers’ offense is what propels this team and provides them a high floor with their ability to get to the charity stripe. Mitchell's health is in question, but it appears he was held out against Florida in the SEC Tournament for cautionary purposes.

Defensively, Missouri isn't exactly excellent, but the interior defense is strong, leaning on Josh Gray and Trent Pierce, and Anthony Robinson will steal some cookies.

Missouri has also played its worst basketball entering the tourney, going 2-5 to finish the year, with questionable defense. If the Tigers can recapture their early-season form, their offensive firepower makes them a dangerous tournament opponent capable of lighting up the scoreboard. The Tigers have the depth and speed, making them difficult to prepare for, but their defense will need to step up if they hope for a deep run.

Drake 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview

Drake enters March Madness with first-year head coach Ben McCollum, who has done nothing but impress. After being picked to finish fifth in the Missouri Valley Conference, the Bulldogs ran through the league, finishing with 30 wins. McCollum has implemented his signature methodical, halfcourt-oriented system, which prioritizes efficiency over pace and features a deliberate tempo, aggressive rim attacks, and sophisticated pick-and-roll schemes.

The Drake roster includes four key transfers from McCollum’s old Northwest Missouri State team: Bennett Stirtz, Mitch Mascari, Isaiah Jackson, and Daniel Abreu. The Bulldogs are elite at grabbing offensive boards (18th-best in the country), free throw rate (12th-best), and forcing turnovers (12th best).

Depth is a concern, especially if Drake faces an up-tempo squad, and with the quick turnaround for the Round of 32. There isn’t much beyond Drake’s top six players, with the team ranking 319th in bench minutes. But the combination of Stirtz’s playmaking and Mascari’s elite 41% perimeter shooting gives Drake offensive firepower, while McCollum’s disciplined defensive approach should keep the Bulldogs competitive in the tournament. They need to avoid fouling and giving up the ball — two of their bigger weaknesses — but the Bulldogs’ methodical play can lull teams to sleep, and their perimeter defense will keep games close.

This is a squad that has beaten Vanderbilt, Kansas State, and Miami all on neutral or road courts. The Bulldogs know how to handle power conference foes and obviously know how to win.

2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Missouri vs. Drake

The first thing that stands out in this matchup is how much Drake steps up in class against higher-level opponents. They rank 16th in Haslametrics' paper tiger factor (that's really good) and only three tournament teams rank higher than them in the opponent adjust factor, per EvanMiya. Drake is going to slow down the pace and play their own game, taking advantage of Missouri's lacking rebounding for ample second-chance looks. Both teams will get to the charity stripe a lot, which favors Missouri slightly as a team with better depth, but it relatively evens itself out. Drake is the much more consistent team, they're playing their best ball, and are actually improved on a neutral court. Bet some alternates here, but I'm simply taking the number that is already getting longer.

2025 NCAA Tournament Picks: Missouri vs. Drake

Drake +6.5 (-105)

Check out all of our 2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket & Betting Coverage >>

2025 NCAA Tournament Sports Betting Picks

For those looking to place bets on the matchups, let's take a look at the early odds and picks for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

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