Missouri vs. Florida: SEC Tournament Predictions (Friday)
The SEC Tournament has finally made it to the semi-finals, where the biggest teams in the league and the sport are. As the NCAA Tournament currently projects, 13 different SEC teams are in the tournament with the conference ranking as one of the best in the KenPom era.
Even No. 16 seed South Carolina got some heralded wins and might've been a tournament team if it was in the ACC. But the focus is on the top. Auburn finally gets going as the consensus favorite to win the SEC tournament at +155, followed close behind by Florida (+210), Alabama (+449) and Tennessee (+550).
Not only are these the top SEC teams but all four rank in the top six nationally, per KenPom. There's a decent chance your National Champion is in that group. Johni Broome is battling with Cooper Flagg for the John R. Wooden Award and Auburn is fighting Duke for title favorites but there is no question: The SEC is the best conference this year. Now, we get to watch these teams play for an SEC crown before we kick off March Madness.
Here are our top picks for today’s SEC Tournament games Missouri vs. Florida.
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Friday’s Best SEC Tournament Bets: Missouri vs. Florida
Missouri vs. Florida
Location: Bridgestone Arena | Nashville, TN
Line: Florida -8.5 | Total: 160.5
For my SEC game of the day, we have Mizzou-Florida, which features two of my favorite teams to make a run in March. Missouri handled business against Mississippi State after finishing the game on a 33-18 run over the last 10 minutes of play. Missouri actually beat Florida in their only matchup of the year back in January, winning 83-82 in a thriller.
Missouri will come at you with their offense. Their field goal percentage ranks seventh in the nation and they get to the charity stripe at the highest clip in Division I (DI) hoops. Against Florida in January, they left a lot of points on the table, only making 18-0f-29 free throws. Caleb Grill can be an absolute sniper while Tamar Bates ranks highly with a 40.5% perimeter shooting percentage himself. Mark Mitchell gets to the charity stripe at will and they rank fourth in percent of their offense coming in the transition game.
But Florida's defense is almost as good as their offense. The Gators force opponents under 30% from deep while consistently limiting opponents to get second-chance opportunities. They've gotten some luck per ShotQuality, though. They rank 273rd in open three rate allowed - Missouri ranks 12th offensively - and the Gators’ defensive adjusted ShotQuality ranks 50th.
For me, Missouri playing yesterday helps build momentum rather than tires them out. They get to the charity stripe so much and rank 45th in bench minutes that the rotation can get involved every which way. Dennis Gates has shown his ability to scheme against the Gators. It's a big spread but I expect Missouri to keep it close.
Prediction: Florida 82, Missouri 78
Best Bet: Missouri +8.5 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)