MLB Best Bets, Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (7/18)
The second half of the season is underway, and now it’s crunch time. With the trade deadline just a couple of weeks away, this is when teams need to figure out if they’re buyers or sellers, and these games can determine that.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Rays (+115) at Texas Rangers (-135) | O/U 8.5 (-120/+100)
Nathan Eovaldi has continued his years of consistency in his first season in Texas. His 11th win today would tie him with Shane McClanhan for the most wins in the league, and he enters the game fourth in both WHIP and WAR for pitchers. Pitching for Boston, he’s seen this Rays lineup plenty of times and has success with a lifetime average against of .224 and a whiff rate of 28.5%.
The Rays are among the best pitching staffs in the league, as they are second in ERA, but Taj Bradley has not helped that number. It’s been a tough season for the Rays rookie, as he has yet to find consistency. His last three starts have been his worst stretch, with an 11.68 ERA and opponents having a 1.206 OPS.
This will be a fun series with the possibility of it being a preview of the ALCS, but give this game to the Rangers.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline (-135)
Miami Marlins (+125) at St. Louis Cardinals (-145) | O/U 8 (-105/-115)
Edward Cabrera will make his first start in a month after landing on the IL with an injury to his right shoulder. He has some incredible movement to his pitches, including a curveball that he’s getting a 42.0% whiff rate with. However, his problem continues to be the control aw evidenced by a walk rate in the third percentile. I’m predicting trouble for him against the Cardinals, who have the tenth-most walks per game.
Jordan Montgomery has been a gem on the Cardinals’ pitching staff that’s near the bottom this season, and that’s why there’s been some trade buzz around his name. He’s been especially great over the last couple of months with a 1.70 ERA and 2.95 FIP.
The Marlins are a great contact-hitter team, but the power and discipline of the Cardinals lineup will push them to the win.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline (-145)
Milwaukee Brewers (+175) at Philadelphia Phillies (-205) | O/U 9.5 (-105/-115)
Aaron Nola has seen some regression this season, with a drop in strikeout percentage and nearly doubling his walk rate. He’s gone back and forth in his career between the fastball and curveball being his lead pitch. This year, he’s leading with the curve, but he’s dropped from a run value of seven on that pitch last year to -1 this year.
Before signing with the Brewers in May, Julio Tehran had not seen MLB action since 2021 after stints in the minors and the independent league. He started his season off well with a 1.53 ERA and opponents hitting .192, but he has been knocked around in his last two starts allowing 13 earned in his previous 11.2 innings.
Both offenses have been playing well recently and these two pitchers can be faded in this game. Look for a lot of offense.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-105)
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