MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Opening Day (3/30)
Happy Opening Day! The 2023 season begins today, and the slate is full. This first day is always exciting because each team is optimistic, and you’re likely to see ace vs. ace on the mound.
Today’s Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
San Fransisco Giants (+158) vs. New York Yankees (-188) | O/U 7 (-115/-105)
The Yankees had the winter to reflect on getting swept in the ALCS by the Astros. The intense offseason ended with jubilation and fans will all rise for nine more years with reigning MVP Aaron Judge’s re-signing. The power of the best home run lineup remains primarily intact with the addition of top prospect Anthony Volpe at shortstop.
Gerrit Cole, who had a mixed 2022 season, will be on the mound. On the one hand, he gave up a major league-leading 33 home runs, but his 257 strikeouts led the league and set a new Yankee record.
The Giants started 2022 looking like they would be a Wild Card contender, but the dog days of summer hurt them and faded away by the end of the season. They lost some bats, including Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria, even worse, they missed out on some free agents, including rescinding Carlos Correa’s contract after a failed physical and Aaron “Arson†Judge. They lost their best arm Carlos Rodon to today’s opponent, but have some excellent additions, including Sean Manaea.
Logan Webb will go for San Francisco, and he’s coming off a career year where he set personal highs in wins, ERA, and strikeouts.
Cole will be effective against a Giants lineup with little power and Webb’s 56.7% ground ball rate will keep the Yanks from having a big offensive game.
Pick: Under 7 (-105)
Baltimore Orioles (+108) vs. Boston Red Sox (-125) | O/U 9 (-106/-114)
Baltimore is one of those dark horse picks to make the playoffs this season. The second half of the 2022 season was noteworthy for them, and it’s giving the fans hope for the first time in a long time.
The rotation didn’t get much better, exchanging Jordan Lyles for Kyle Gibson, who is today’s starter, isn’t necessarily an up or downgrade, but Cole Irvin could be a great value.
It will be the offense that supports this team. Adley Rutschman will try to build on his stellar rookie season, top prospect Gunnar Henderson is looking to make a name for himself, and after a down year, Cedric Mullins will try to get back to that All-Star level.
As bright as things look for the Orioles, it’s the opposite for Boston. Their roster is in a complete turnaround as they elected to let Xander Bogaerts walk, as well as J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi.
Their offseason moves will not get the Fenway faithful excited. An aging Justin Turner will move into that DH role, Adam Duvall will be in center, Alberto Mondesi will man second, and Corey Kluber will get the honor as the Opening Day starter. Former Japanese baseball star Masataka Yoshida is the one signee who could make a significant impact on the lineup and is coming off a great World Baseball Classic.
This pitching matchup of two aging starters isn’t exciting, but the game itself could be. I’m heavily favoring an offensive showdown and Baltimore to grab the win.
Pick: Orioles ML (+108)
New York Mets (-126) vs. Miami Marlins (+108) | O/U 6.5 (-115/-105)
The Mets rotation will look very different from last year. The notable departure is Jacob deGrom, but Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker have also moved on. Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, and, most notably, Justin Verlander will fill in those roles. Max Scherzer will be the Opening Day starter, and he’s coming off an impressive first season in New York with a 2.29 ERA and 0.91 WHIP.
In what will be a very competitive year in the NL East, where do the Marlins fit? The offense was near the bottom last year, but injuries to Jazz Chisholm and Jorge Soler played a huge part. They wanted to get more support at the top of the lineup, and adding Jean Segura and Luis Arraez, were two under-the-radar moves, but ones that can prove successful.
It will also be interesting to see if Sandy Alcantara can replicate his Cy Young season. He’ll get the ball today and had a couple of successful starts against the Mets last year, including a seven-inning shutout.
The pitching matchup should favor Scherzer. At this point in his career, he has yet to show any regression, and in the early age of the pitch clock, as “Mad Max†loves to work quickly, it’s been an easy adjustment so far.
Pick: Mets ML (-126)
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