MLB Futures: 2020 Regular Season Home Run Title
Futures bets are among my favorites as a recreational gambler with a small bankroll, since you can get some serious bang for your buck. The trade-off is that your money is tied up for the duration of the season on these wagers. Because won’t be able to wager on other potential favorable situations during the season, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to take short odds on futures unless you have a massive bankroll. Below, all six players highlighted have longer than 15/1 odds to lead the MLB in homers, with four hitters checking in at 50/1 or longer odds. The betting odds are from the Superbook at Westgate in Las Vegas and are current as of February 10.
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Christian Yelich (MIL): 16/1
| Projection Model | Plate Appearances | Homers (Rank) |
| Zeile | 557 at-bats* | 36 (T-14th) |
| ATC | 647 | 36 (T-11th) |
| Steamer | 672 | 36 (T-18th) |
| THE BAT | 671 | 37 (11th) |
*Zeile has at-bat projections as opposed to plate appearances.
If you’re simply betting on the projections relative to his line, this isn’t a good bet. None of the four projection models in the table have him finishing even in the top-10 in homers, yet his line is tied for the sixth-shortest odds. Of course, since I’m suggesting him in this space, I’m more bullish on his outlook than the projection models.
For starters, since the beginning of the 2018 season (Yelich’s first with the Brewers), he has the third-most homers with 80, just three behind Eugenio Suarez for the second-most homers and four behind Mike Trout for the most dingers, per FanGraphs. The beauty of using the combined data from the last two years is it includes last year’s rabbit ball climate and the non-juiced 2018 ball. If the MLB returns to their pre-2019 ball, Yelich has shown he can rip taters in bunches.
Circling back to the projections in the table, it’s likely they’re somewhat held back by his work in his last year in Miami. While projection models weigh most recent statistics more heavily, they might not have discarded Yelich’s 2017 work in Miami. I’d suggest ignoring his 2017 season because he’s drastically changed his batted-ball profile since escaping dinger depressing Marlins Park. Yelich’s 51.8 GB% in 2018 was his lowest mark in his career, and he cut that all the way down to 43.2% last year. Additionally, he ratcheted up his pulled ball percentage to 39.3%, a new high. He’s wisely lifting and pulling more balls now that he’s in a home park that amplifies homers — 1.101 park factor for left-handed homers, according to our park factors.
Last year, he finished sixth with 44 homers despite having his season come to a close on September 10 as a result of fracturing his knee on a foul ball. Pete Alonso led the MLB with 53 homers last year, but he also held a 113 plate appearance advantage over Yelich. He’s already a threat to lead the MLB in homers if he simply continues doing what he’s doing, but if he continues his trend of lifting and pulling more balls this season, then he’d have an even greater chance of capturing baseball’s home run crown.
Joey Gallo (TEX): 18/1
| Projection Model | Plate Appearances | Homers (Rank) |
| Zeile | 507 at-bats* | 40 (5th) |
| ATC | 578 | 41 (4th) |
| Steamer | 616 | 43 (4th) |
| THE BAT | 630 | 47 (1st) |
*Zeile has at-bat projections as opposed to plate appearances.
Before moving into the analysis, take another gander at his homer projections and their ranks in the table above. All four projection models have him finishing in the top-five in homers with THE BAT projecting him to lead the bigs in taters. He’s tied for the ninth-shortest odds at Westgate’s Superbook, making him a relative bargain compared to his homer projections.
Gallo’s power is prodigious, and he slugged 40 or more homers in back-to-back seasons in 2017 and 2018. In 2017, he smashed 41 homers in only 532 plate appearances. In 2018, he ripped 40 homers in 577 plate appearances. Injuries limited him to just 70 games and 297 plate appearances in 2019, but he launched 22 homers in roughly a half of season’s worth of work.
Gallo knows that his power butters his bread, and he taps into it with a fly-ball heavy approach. Last year, he totaled a 47.2 FB%, and he’s hit a hair over half of the balls he’s put in play in his career in the air. Among players with a minimum of 100 batted ball events last year, Gallo’s launch angle of 20.3 degrees is the 13th-highest angle, per Baseball Savant. Using that same threshold of batted ball events, no one demonstrated more impressive FB/LD exit velocity with Gallo leading the way at 101.2 mph — the only triple-digit average exit velocity on FB/LD.
J.D. Martinez (BOS): 50/1
| Projection Model | Plate Appearances | Homers (Rank) |
| Zeile | 561 at-bats* | 37 (T-10th) |
| ATC | 637 | 38 (T-7th) |
| Steamer | 649 | 39 (T-10th) |
| THE BAT | 678 | 39 (8th) |
*Zeile has at-bat projections as opposed to plate appearances.
Since 2017, no one has hit more homers than the 124 belted by Martinez. He finished with the third-most homers (45) in 2017 and the second-most homers (43) in 2018. Last year, he dipped to tied for the 18th-most homers (36). Perhaps the ship has sailed for him threatening for the home run crown, but the projection models all peg him for a top-10 finish in dingers this year. Further, he continues to hit the ball hard and has cut back on his punchouts.
Martinez’s 95.0 mph FB/LD average exit velocity last year was tied with Cody Bellinger’s mark for the 68th-highest average, and his 45.9 hard-hit% in 2019 was actually up a tick from his 44.9 hard-hit% in 2018. The biggest key for Martinez getting in the mix to lead the majors in homers is hitting the ball in the air a bit more. Last year, he had a 34.8 FB% after totaling a 34.0 FB% in 2018. In 2017, though, he had a 43.2 FB%. Interestingly, Martinez’s 43.2 FB% in 2017 came on the heels of a 36.2 FB% in 2016, and he’s kicked his fly balls up once before bumping them up from 36.8% in 2014 to 43.5% in 2015. In other words, he’s shown a willingness to sacrifice some average to reach the seats more often. I’m not ready to write Martinez off as a homer championship candidate, especially not at sweet 50/1 odds.
Nelson Cruz (MIN): 80/1
| Projection Model | Plate Appearances | Homers (Rank) |
| Zeile | 527 at-bats* | 39 (T-6th) |
| ATC | 562 | 36 (T-11th) |
| Steamer | 641 | 40 (T-8th) |
| THE BAT | 636 | 38 (T-9th) |
*Zeile has at-bat projections as opposed to plate appearances.
Since 2017, Cruz is tied for the second-most homers with 117. The 39-year-old slugger is aging like a fine wine, and he’s smacked 37 or more homers in six-straight seasons while besting 40 homers four times in that time frame, including last year with 41 homers in only 521 plate appearances. He’s also another Statcast darling like Gallo.
Among hitters with a minimum of 100 batted ball events, Cruz’s 99.2 mph average FB/LD exit velocity ranked as the fourth-highest mark. Further, Cruz’s 52.5 hard-hit% was the highest among qualified hitters last year, according to FanGraphs. There’s only one fly in the ointment, and it’s almost certainly the primary reason he has such a tasty line. Cruz didn’t play the field at all for the Twins last year, and he’s played just nine games (54.1 innings) in the field since 2017, per FanGraphs. He’s limited to designated hitter duties at this point in his career, so he’ll only be a pinch-hitter when the Twins play interleague games in a National League park. Even with that consideration in mind, Cruz totaled 591 plate appearances in 2018 and 645 plate appearances in 2017, and a minor injury that briefly sidelined him in August is to blame for him totaling only 521 plate appearances last year. Additionally, not subjecting his body to fielding could, in theory, keep him fresher and healthier.
Miguel Sano (MIN): 100/1
| Projection Model | Plate Appearances | Homers (Rank) |
| Zeile | 476 at-bats* | 35 (T-16th) |
| ATC | 540 | 35 (T-22nd) |
| Steamer | 581 | 37 (T-14th) |
| THE BAT | 594 | 35 (T-16th) |
*Zeile has at-bat projections as opposed to plate appearances.
Cruz isn’t the only member of the Twins with silly Statcast data. In fact, Sano’s is slightly more impressive. The burly corner infielder posted the second-highest average FB/LD exit velocity among players with a minimum of 100 batted ball events at 99.6 mph. He also has a launch angle edge over Cruz with Nelly sporting a 13.1-degree launch angle last year compared to Sano’s 15.9-degree launch angle.
Sano mashed 34 homers in only 439 plate appearances last year. His homer pace in 2019 of one per 7.7 plate appearances was nearly identical to home run leader Pete Alonso’s. Also, Sano’s 52.7 hard-hit% actually bested Cruz’s MLB-leading mark among qualified hitters, and Sano failed to lead the category himself only due to falling short of being a qualified hitter. The righty’s power’s undeniable, and he’s a great longshot to throw some money on to lead the MLB in homers in 2020.
Franmil Reyes (CLE): 100/1
| Projection Model | Plate Appearances | Homers (Rank) |
| Zeile | 511 at-bats | 35 (T-16th) |
| ATC | 560 | 36 (T-11th) |
| Steamer | 572 | 36 (T-18th) |
| THE BAT | 585 | 31 (T-34th) |
*Zeile has at-bat projections as opposed to plate appearances.
Reyes is the other dark horse to lead the MLB in homers in 2020 that I’ll be backing. The Franimal fits the Statcast dreamboat mold touted throughout this piece, and his 98.2 mph average FB/LD exit velocity was the fifth-highest mark among hitters with a minimum of 100 batted ball events. Among the top-10 hitters in that mark, he’s the only one with a launch angle under 10 degrees at 9.5 degrees. Having said that, his 9.5-degree launch angle last year was actually up — literally — from 6.8 degrees in 2018.
In 2018, Reyes had a 49.2 GB% and 29.8 FB%. Last year, he whittled his ground ball percentage down to 44.1% and upped his fly ball percentage to 34.5%. That’s not the only positive change to his batted balls, either. After pulling just 33.7% of his balls in play in 2018, he kicked that up to 38.3% last year. If the 24-year-old slugger continues to lift more balls and do a better job of tapping into his easy-plus power, he’ll have a chance to build on the 37 homers he cracked in 548 plate appearances last year.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive or follow him @BChad50.