MLB Futures: Best Bet to Win the AL Pennant (2021)
This MLB offseason has been one of the most sluggish ones in recent memory, which is likely due to the disaster that was 2020 and the uncertainty for 2021. Still, free agency is slowly moving along, and MLB futures odds are being updated regularly. In fact, just last week, the odds were drastically different. If you can get out ahead of some of these anticipated changes, you can get much better odds in January than you’ll see as we get closer to the start of the season.
Just a week ago, many of the MLB futures odds were drastically different. Now that we are getting closer to the season (pitchers and catchers report in approximately one month), the odds are starting to get a bit more focused. Some of the longer odds are being reduced, while the shorter odds at the top are becoming slightly more crowded. Look at how the odds at the bottom of the American League have changed in just the last week alone:
The Red Sox, Orioles, Royals, and Mariners were all at +10,000 less than a week ago. Now, the Red Sox are at +1,500, while the rest are at +6,000 along with the Rangers and Tigers. The Red Sox at +10,000 was intriguing just because they’re the Red Sox and could still make some moves over the next few weeks. At +1,500, I have no interest.
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Odds to Win the 2021 American League Pennant
At +240 in mid-January, the Yankees are too risky for me. There are too many question marks for them to be the favorites, and those odds just aren’t good enough for the risk. DJ LeMahieu remains a free agent and isn’t a lock to return to New York. Three of their starting pitchers (Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ, James Paxton) are also free agents, and they don’t exactly have a stable of reliable arms ready to step up and throw 200 quality innings. They have Gerrit Cole as a true ace, Jordan Montgomery as a gigantic question mark, Deivi Garcia as a promising youngster who has never pitched a full season, and then…Michael King? Domingo German? The Yankees are sure to make some moves over the next few weeks, but they should hardly be considered the odds-on favorite to win the American League pennant.
For my money, I’m rolling with the White Sox at +400. And if we’re being honest, they should probably already be favored over the Yankees. The White Sox were already one of the most exciting young teams in baseball in 2020, and they should be even better in 2021. They’re returning a fantastic young offensive core in the middle of their lineup in Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, and Nick Madrigal as well as veterans Yasmani Grandal and Jose Abreu (who happened to win the AL MVP in 2020). And they went out and brought back the reliable Adam Eaton to hit at the top of their lineup, as well.
As for starting pitching, they are getting fireballer Michael Kopech back and acquired Lance Lynn from the Rangers to go with a rotation that already consisted of Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, and former top prospect Dylan Cease. Oh, and they just went out and added Liam Hendricks to the back end of their bullpen. They spent years acquiring and developing young talent, and they’re ready to take over the American League.
The White Sox went 35-25 in 2020 without Michael Kopech and with Yoan Moncada having a down year while recovering from COVID-19. The Cleveland Indians are selling off assets while the Minnesota Twins could be losing some key contributors in free agency. The Royals and Tigers are attempting to refresh and retool, but the White Sox are about to take over as the class of the American League Central. And when 2021 is said and done, they very well could be the class of the American League.
Best Bet: White Sox +400
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog.