MLB Futures: Best Bets for American League MVP (2020)

The quest to nab the American League MVP is one that goes through Mike Trout. He’s the defending American League MVP and he’s won the award twice in the last four years and three times in the last six as you can see on the Baseball-Reference MVP landing page. The oddsmakers and bettors recognize this, and Trout’s a downright absurd +150 to win the American League MVP at DraftKings (all lines below are from DraftKings’ sportsbook). If asked who I think will win the award, he’d be my answer.

Having said that, the line makes it a bad bet even for those with a big bankroll. Having money tied up on a +150 line for the entire season prevents you from taking advantage of favorable betting opportunities with those funds during the season. Hell, there’s a decent chance of numerous names with longer odds than Trout’s to win the MVP standing out as appealing on Opening Day. With that in mind, I’ve highlighted some players below who have a chance to dethrone Trout while providing enough value to tie your money up.

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Francisco Lindor (CLE): +1000
Lindor is tied for the second-shortest odds for American League MVP with Aaron Judge, but with Trout a massive favorite like I discussed in the intro, even the co-second fave has a decent number. The 26-year-old shortstop has reached at least 5.5 FanGraphs WAR (fWAR) in three of four full seasons in the majors and his best work came in 2018 when he totaled 7.6 fWAR.

Lindor finished sixth in American League MVP voting that year, per Baseball-Reference. Teammate Jose Ramirez was actually ahead of him that year, and he’s finished ahead of him two of the last three years in fWAR. Having said that, Lindor was better than Ramirez last year and is a fielding whiz at a more premium defensive position. Baseball Savant has unveiled Infield Outs Above Average using Statcast data to accompany the Outfield Outs Above Average that was already available and Mike Petriello of MLB.com discussed the metric in-depth earlier this month here.

Fielding metrics have often been criticized because there’s traditionally been a subjective nature to them and it’s resulted in discrepancies between how certain statistics grade the quality of players’ fielding work. This data helps strip out the subjectivity. Lindor was tied for the 17th-most Outs Above Average, making him one of the best fielders in the game.

He’s also no slouch with the bat, coming off of a season in which he ripped 32 homers with a .234 ISO and 114 wRC+, per FanGraphs. He’s the total package and that matters with MVP voters now. Traditionally, sluggers who posted massive offensive numbers but added a little or even hurt their teams with their glovework could win the MVP award. However, last year’s MVP winners (Trout in the American League and Cody Bellinger in the National League) finished first or tied for first in fWAR in their respective leagues. In 2018, Mookie Betts won the American League MVP and led MLB in fWAR and Christian Yelich took home the National League MVP finishing third in the NL in fWAR.

However, Yelich finished behind two pitchers, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, in fWAR and it appears voters still prefer award the MVP to position players under most circumstances. Looking at recent years, the top vote-getters and award winners for the MVP award have been among the leaders in fWAR. In short, whether it’s the influx of new advanced-stat friendly voters or old dogs learning new tricks — it’s probably some combination of both — the MVP is no longer an award for the most valuable offensive player. It’s going to players with a legitimate case for being the most valuable player overall. Lindor’s high-level skills in the field and at the dish make him a strong threat to overtake Trout for the American League MVP Award in 2020 and all of the forthcoming players either are well-rounded players or have the potential to be.

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Matt Chapman (OAK): +2000
Ranking a few spots ahead of Lindor in Outs Above Average is Chapman. The slick-fielding third baseman tied for the eighth-most Outs Above Average. Additionally, he’s been more productive at the dish than the aforementioned Lindor. Last year, Chapman smacked 36 homers with a .257 ISO and 125 wRC+. The power output was an improvement from 2018, but he was actually more productive overall with the stick in 2018, totaling a 138 wRC+. He’s posted 6.6 fWAR and 6.1 fWAR over the last two years and he’s coming off of a sixth-place finish in American League MVP voting.

If not for an injury over the summer, there was a distinct possibility that he could’ve posted even better offensive numbers. Jeff Zimmerman of RotoGraphs wrote a piece in early January tracking injuries and player performance. In that piece, Chapman made the injuries table with an ankle/knee injury suffered on July 19.

In 406 plate appearances from March 20 until July 19, Chapman ripped 22 homers with a .272 ISO and 143 wRC+. In 264 plate appearances from July 20 through the end of the regular season, he hit 14 homers with a .233 ISO, and 98 wRC+. Perhaps the injury isn’t the reason for the steep decline in production, but if it was and Chapman posts a full season of his pre-injury bat work in addition to his top-shelf glovework, he’s an American League MVP contender.

Carlos Correa (HOU): +3300
Would MVP voters really give the American League MVP award to an Astro after the sign-stealing scandal was revealed this offseason? It’s a question that has to be asked, but I’ll counter with a different question. Is it really that hard to imagine writers spinning stories of redemption and proving doubters wrong if an Astro obliterates the competition this year? I don’t believe that’s a far-fetched notion at all.

Having gotten the elephant in the room out of the way, Correa might be on the precipice of emerging as one of the best handful of players in all of MLB. A collection of odd injuries has prevented him from eclipsing 500 plate appearances in each of the last three years and last year’s fractured rib suffered as a result of receiving a massage takes the cake for odd injuries. He played in only 75 regular-season games and totaled 321 plate appearances, but he made his trips to the dish count, ripping 21 homers with a .289 ISO and 143 wRC+.

Like Lindor, Correa calls shortstop home. However, Correa’s 143 wRC+ last year dwarfed Lindor’s 114 wRC+. Further, Correa’s 129 wRC+ in his career is 10 points higher than Lindor’s 119 wRC+. Houston’s shortstop holds the edge with the bat and Lindor might not hold as large of a fielding edge over Correa as one would intuitively believe. As I noted above, Lindor tied for the 17th-most Outs Above Average with 11, but Correa wasn’t too far behind tied for the 23rd-most Outs Above Average with nine. Correa can do it all, and putting aside fandom and disdain for the sign-stealing actions of the Astros makes him an enticing American League MVP bet at his odds.

Joey Gallo (TEX): +6600
Gallo is one of two players in this piece with eye-popping odds. It takes more squinting to see him capturing an American League MVP than the others, but I’ve already previously discussed his case for leading the league in homers. Yes, well-rounded players are getting more love than ever before, but dingers and offensive production do still carry weight in the eyes of voters.

In 2017, Aaron Judge led the American League with 52 homers and finished second in American League MVP voting. That same year, Giancarlo Stanton led MLB with 59 homers and captured the National League MVP Award. Stanton totaled a slightly positive defensive score at FanGraphs and Judge tallied a slightly negative defensive score. Both were carried by their offense and Gallo would need a similar formula to win the American League MVP, but he did finish a pinch above average in fielding with one Out Above Average, tying for 143rd out of 382 qualified fielders, according to Baseball Savant.

In 297 plate appearances last year, Gallo walloped 22 homers with a .344 ISO and 144 wRC+ and amassed 3.3 fWAR. His 70 games were just under a half season’s worth of games played, putting him on pace for better than a 6.5 fWAR season had he been healthy and played at that level for a full year. That’s higher than the aforementioned Chapman totaled last year and Gallo comes at much longer betting odds.

Is he a likely American League MVP winner? No, of course not. That’s why his odds are what they are. However, the path to winning the award isn’t crazy and he makes for one of the few truly long-odds players who caught my attention.

Austin Meadows (TB): +12500
Meadows split his first 59 games in “The Show” in 2018 with the Pirates (49) and Rays (10). Last year was his first full season (138 games) in the bigs and he balled out for the Rays. He slugged 33 homers with a .268 ISO and 142 wRC+. Meadows’ 142 wRC+ ranked tied for 11th among qualified hitters.

He also showed well in Statcast data. Among the 250 qualified batters, Meadows ranked tied for 26th with 8.5 Brls/PA% and tied for 57th with a 94.7 MPH average FB/LD exit velocity. Quite the impressive showing in his first full season at the age of 24 for the majority of last year.

Also of note, the left-handed-hitting outfielder feasted on righties (152 wRC+), but also raked in same-handed matchups with a 120 wRC+ against southpaws. Furthermore, he concluded the year hitting better in the second half than the first instead of tailing off as the league adjusted to him. In 305 first-half plate appearances, he hit 12 homers with an 8.9 BB%, 23.6 K%, .212 ISO, and 129 wRC+. In 286 second-half plate appearances, he crushed 21 homers with a 9.4 BB%, 20.6 K%, .327 ISO, and 156 wRC+.

Meadows is legit offensively, but his defense helped contribute to him being worth “just” 4.0 fWAR. Meadows’ defense grade at FanGraphs ranked as the 26th-worst among qualified players. Baseball Savant’s Outs Above Average using Statcast data also graded him negatively in the field with a negative-two Outs Above Average, but that’s not nearly as bad of a defensive grade as the one at FanGraphs with Meadows ranking tied for 250th out of 382 fielders at Baseball Savant. Coincidentally, his negative-two Outs Above Average was tied with Trout’s mark last year.

Meadows might prove to be a below-average defender long term, but one full season and a partial season of below-average defense don’t mean he’s destined to continue playing at that level. In FanGraphs’ last reported scouting report on his player page from 2018, they graded his defense 45 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale with a 50 future grade. His 45 current grade puts him just below average, but his 50 future grade is exactly average in scouting parlance.

Meadows bounced around all three outfield positions throughout the minors, but he appeared in center field in just three games totaling 13.0 innings last year for the Rays, per FanGraphs. Perhaps settling in as a corner outfielder in left field and/or right field will allow him to make defensive strides.

Additionally, he’s not slow-footed. On the contrary, his 28.1 ft/second sprint score is better than the 27 ft/sec Baseball Savant classifies as the MLB average on a “competitive” play. Meadows’ American League MVP odds are far too long for a player of his caliber with ample room for growth. Even recreational gamblers like myself can have rooting interest on a small wager on Meadows winning the 2020 American League MVP.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive follow him @BChad50.