MLB Futures: Best Bets for Division Winners (2020)
Baseball has a completely different look since we saw the Washington Nationals win their first World Series in franchise history last October. Mookie Betts has a new home, the Astros’ recent run of success has been tainted with a cheating scandal, and many free agents will don new colors for the 2020 season.
With the Yankees (+375), Dodgers (+430), and Astros (+650) being the odds-on favorites to win the 2020 World Series, many bettors may flock to those teams when betting their division winners as well. We are going to dig in and look for the top value bets and potential division winners for you to back in the 2020 season.
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AL East
The Favorite: New York Yankees (-370)
The addition of Gerrit Cole alone, who was arguably the best pitcher in baseball last season in Houston, could be the piece that the Yankees needed to put them over the top in 2020. After seeing 30 players miss a total of 2,894 days on the IL last season (which just so happened to cost them just over $92M in salary), the Yankees still found a way to win 103 games.
The only major injury concern for the Bronx Bombers right now is James Paxton, who is expected to be pitching again in May. Miguel Andujar has been learning more positions as he looks to find his way back after missing the entire 2019 campaign. The Yankees showed off their depth in 2019, and now that they are nearly at full strength, it will be really tough to top them in the AL East.
The Wildcard: Tampa Bay Rays (+400)
The Rays are that young, pesky team that never seems to go away. After finishing just seven games behind the Yankees in 2019, the Rays could be poised to make another run in 2020. An underrated rotation bolstered by Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Charlie Morton should keep the Rays within striking distance in the AL East. The additions of young hitters Hunter Renfroe, Jose Martinez, and international signing Yoshi Tsutsugo from Japan, will only add to the depth that the offense has as well. Factor in what the Red Sox have done (undone?) this offseason, and the Rays seem like the best bet of anyone in the division to keep pace with New York this season.
AL Central
The Favorite: Minnesota Twins (-180)
The Twins are coming off a 2019 season where they shattered the all-time single-season home run record for a team with 307. Bear in mind that the Yankees (306), Astros (288), and Dodgers (279) also eclipsed the previous record of 267, but nonetheless, the power shown by the Twins last season is unprecedented.
The addition of Josh Donaldson to an already stacked lineup will make the Twins a tough team to outscore on a nightly basis, let alone an entire season. The Twins’ weakness lies with the starting rotation. Jose Berrios has shown the ability to dominate, and Jake Odorizzi had the best season of his career in 2019. The addition of Kenta Maeda should provide some stability behind those two in 2020, but the back end of the rotation still leaves plenty to be desired. Homer Bailey is the only other pitcher who is likely locked into a rotation spot.
A strong bullpen featuring Taylor Rogers, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, and Sergio Romo should give the Twins plenty of flexibility as they look to repeat as AL Central Champions in 2020.
The Wildcard: Chicago White Sox (+360)
One of the most active teams in the 2019 offseason, the White Sox have added Yasmani Grandal, Edwin Encarnacion, Nomar Mazara, and Dallas Keuchel. For a team that only won 72 games in 2019, this team has high hopes for 2020, and a lot of the cause for optimism is due to the young talent they will have working for them in 2020.
Luis Robert and Michael Kopech highlight the elite talent the White Sox have been working through the pipeline, and Kopech has shown signs of brilliance when healthy (only 14.1 IP in 2019 before Tommy John surgery). If this young core of talent produces anywhere near their expectation in 2020, watch out. It would be foolish to rule out the White Sox making a run in the Central in 2020. The South Side of Chicago is poised for a breakout season. Don’t be surprised to see the White Sox become the best team in Chicago in 2020.
AL West
The Favorite: Houston Astros (-280)
The Astros could be a true wild card in 2020. With the loss of their top pitcher in free agency (sorry, Justin Verlander), this is a team that is vulnerable, regardless of your take on the cheating scandal. Adding even more fuel to the fire regarding pitch-tipping, sign-stealing, and the like…the Astros had the lowest team K rate (18.2%) AND the highest BB rate (10.1%) in 2019. Take that for what you will.
With that said, this is still one of the top lineups in all of baseball, anchored by George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Yordan Alvarez. There is no shortage of firepower in this lineup, and they are destined to score runs regardless of what may happen behind the scenes.
A largely unproven rotation behind veterans Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke should give any bettor pause on laying this huge number for the Astros to take down the AL West. Lance McCullers Jr. has shown promise when healthy, although a lack of command (career 3.51 BB/9) has been his downfall early in his career. Jose Urquidy was lights out in the World Series but still has plenty to prove at the big league level. The end of the rotation will likely come down to more young guys in Framber Valdez, Josh James, and Austin Pruitt.
For a team that has had so much recent success, recent developments, like the loss of Cole and the addition of Dusty Baker, the enemy of young arms, don’t bode well for Houston.
The Wildcard: Oakland Athletics (+340)
This is a team that looks destined to make a huge leap forward in 2020, and they could possibly overtake the Astros in what now looks like a very competitive AL West race.
With what should be an absolutely filthy young rotation in 2020, the A’s will be a fun team to watch. Jesus Luzardo, Frankie Montas, AJ Puk, Sean Manaea, and Mike Fiers make up a rotation that has the potential to be the best not only in the AL West but in the entire league. If this young core reaches even close to their potential moving forward, this will be a very tough team to score against in the years to come.
This is a very underrated lineup that features the best hitters nobody is talking about in Marcus Semien, Ramon Laureano, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, and Mark Canha. If 2020 sees a bounce-back campaign for Khris Davis, this is a team that has a massive ceiling.
NL East
The Favorite: Atlanta Braves (+200)
The Braves are coming off a successful 2019 campaign that saw them win the NL East with a 97-65 record. Looking forward to 2020, the moves made by the front office don’t jump off the page at you. The team signed Marcell Ozuna, but in a lineup that lost Josh Donaldson to the Twins in free agency, this seems like a wash at best for Atlanta.
Cole Hamels replaces Julio Teheran in the rotation for 2020. Yonder Alonso, Felix Hernandez, and Josh Tomlin all signed to minor league deals as well.
The young core of Ronald Acuna Jr, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Mike Soroka, Dansby Swanson, Johan Camargo, Max Fried, and Mike Foltynewicz should propel the Braves to a successful 2020. With Washington, New York, and an improved Marlins team behind them, these odds seem way too short.
Wildcard: New York Mets (+280)
An 86-win campaign in 2019 has Mets fans full of optimism heading into 2020, and for good reasons. A lineup that consists of young studs Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis, Amed Rosario, and Brandon Nimmo is a gauntlet for opposing pitchers.
The Mets also boast one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball on the mound in Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. The addition of veteran Marcus Stroman last season added some depth behind their top tier duo. The club has now bolstered the back-end of their rotation with veterans Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha. Dellin Betances joins the bullpen as the setup man to Edwin Diaz.
This is a young team that is just getting started, and they make for an exciting bet in what has quickly become a crowded race atop the NL East.
NL Central
The Favorite: St. Louis Cardinals (+220)
The Cardinals are a perennial contender in the NL Central, and they always seem to find a way to vie for the top spot in the division. 2019 was good to the Cardinals, as a strong second half, combined with a meltdown by the Cubs, led to yet another NL Central crown.
St. Louis has some exciting young pieces of their own, with Tommy Edman, Jack Flaherty, Paul DeJong, Dakota Hudson, and Miles Mikolas leading the charge. However, this is a team with a lot of question marks heading into 2020. The departure of Marcell Ozuna to the Braves has left a big hole in a lineup that struggled to score in 2019 (19th-most runs scored, 10th-most in NL).
Young hitters Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, and Dylan Carlson will need to step up in a big way if the Cardinals are going to repeat as NL Central Champs. The road ahead won’t be easy, especially considering the Cardinals will still have to deal with three other potential playoff squads in their division alone.
The Wildcard: Cincinnati Reds (+270)
The team who was winning the offseason (at least until the Dodgers landed Mookie Betts) due to their aggressiveness in free agency was Cincinnati. A team that won just 75 games the previous season generally doesn’t stand much of a chance at erasing the 16-game gap between themselves and the first-place team.
Enter the Reds. The offseason additions of Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos, Shogo Akiyama, Wade Miley, and Pedro Strop have this team looking like a force to be reckoned with in the NL Central. The 2019 Reds had the third-worst team BA and scored more runs than just three NL teams, but also lost 33 one-run games due to solid pitching.
A rotation of Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani, and Wade Miley is as good as any in the NL, and perhaps the entire league. An improved bullpen in 2019 helped keep a struggling offense competitive for much of the season. The odds continue to shrink for the Reds in the NL Central, and right now looks like the time to jump aboard.
NL West
The Favorite: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1000)
The most overwhelming favorite to win their division in 2020, betting against the Dodgers in the NL West looks to be foolish. This team dominated in 2019, scoring 886 runs while allowing only 613.
Led by Cody Bellinger, this Dodgers lineup was already a well-oiled machine. With the addition of Mookie Betts, this lineup now features three of the 15 MLB hitters (Bellinger, Betts, and Max Muncy) who have accumulated 10+ WAR over the last two seasons.
Young hitters in Corey Seager, Gavin Lux, Joc Pederson, and Will Smith are about as good of complementary hitters as there are in the game.
For as good as the lineup is expected to be in 2020, the pitching staff is nearly as good. Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, and David Price anchor a rotation that could include young elite talent in Julio Urias and Dustin May.
No sane bettor wants to lay any significant amount of money on a bet at -1000, but this looks to be as much of a slam-dunk future bet as you’ll find in the MLB.
The Wildcard: San Diego Padres (+1100)
Quite possibly the most interesting young team in baseball, the Padres look poised to continue their improvement in 2020 following a 70-win campaign in 2019. There is plenty of reason to believe that the Padres’ young core will lead them to a competitive season. Much of that optimism is because of young Fernando Tatis Jr, who averaged .317 with 22 home runs and 16 stolen bases last year — in only 84 games.
Coming off a down year in 2019, at least for his standards, Manny Machado is looking to bounce back as a part of a lineup that added Tommy Pham, Jurickson Profar, and Trent Grisham in the offseason.
San Diego has a solid rotation of talented, albeit inexperienced arms Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet, Joey Lucchesi. A deep farm system that has produced Mackenzie Gore, Luis Patino, and Cal Quantril gives the Padres a stockpile of talented arms. If a few of them reach their potential, this will be a tough rotation for years to come. They may not catch the Dodgers just yet, but at these odds, it may be worth a shot at the moon.
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Justin Elick is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Justin, check out his archive and follow him@BigItaly42.