MLB Futures: Best Bets for Division Winners (2021)
This offseason moved at a sluggish pace, but most of the top free agents have now signed, and pitchers and catchers are reporting to training camp. A tumultuous 2020 season and an uncertain financial landscape in 2021 led to some teams taking a more cautious approach to the offseason, but that didn’t stop some teams from making big moves or retaining some of their big free agents.
The reigning champions, the Los Angeles Dodgers, added Trevor Bauer and are even better on paper. The Toronto Blue Jays added George Springer, Marcus Semien, and Steven Matz. The Mets have a new owner and traded for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco and are now a legit contender in a suddenly crowded NL East. The AL West and AL Central are both up for grabs.
The shortened 2020 season means we are working with smaller sample sizes, which also means the odds for division winners may not be as locked down as they normally would be with training camp about to begin. In this space, we’re taking a look at the best bets for division winners in 2021.
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NL East
The Atlanta Braves cruised to the NL East title in 2020, with the Miami Marlins as the only other team with a winning record on the shortened season. But the Mets have a new owner and were aggressive this offseason, and the Nationals were decimated by injuries last year. The Phillies are returning largely the same team but could have a potent lineup if Alec Bohm looks as legit over a full season as he did in 44 games with the big league club in 2020. Philadelphia probably doesn’t have the pitching to compete over the long haul unless they play well enough to justify adding some at the deadline. With +125 odds and no real reason to doubt the Braves, I’m sticking with the favorites in the NL East.
Bet: Braves +125
NL Central
The Cardinals being plus money in this division right now feels like a gift. The Cubs won the division in 2020, but they’re selling off pieces and appear to be headed towards a full rebuild. The Reds were stockpiling talent for a couple of years but look to be dialing it back in 2021, and they aren’t nearly as big of a threat without Trevor Bauer. They should still have a decent lineup, but their pitching is a big question mark and could be an even bigger one if they end up trading away Sonny Gray. The Brewers are going to hit and have some metrics darlings in the rotation, but it doesn’t feel like they have enough to seriously compete unless they add some talent at the 23rd hour. After adding Nolan Arenado to the middle of their lineup, the Cardinals are the team to beat in the Central.
Bet: Cardinals +105
NL West
The NL West is a two-team race, and the Dodgers are going to be tough to beat. At -270, Los Angeles is listed as the surest bet of any of the division favorites here. The Rockies and Diamondbacks don’t have a prayer and aren’t worth a bet even at +5,000, and the Giants aren’t far behind. But the Padres are a legitimate threat, and they have a deep lineup and a stacked rotation that will keep them in the race all year. The Dodgers are not without their weaknesses, especially in their lineup. If their pitching falters even a little or they deal with an injury or two, the Padres will be on their heels. And at +200 vs. -270, the Padres are the bet here.
Bet: Padres +200
AL East
The Yankees are the team to beat in the AL East, but they aren’t the Dodgers. And they have two legitimate threats in the Blue Jays and the Rays this season. The Red Sox should hit, but their pitching will likely be their downfall as they continue to rebuild. The Orioles will have the worst record in the American League. The Yankees have some question marks of their own, and the Jays and Rays are both better than their current odds suggest. Instead of rolling with the favorites in the AL East and their -195 odds, I’m throwing darts at both the Jays and the Rays.
AL Central
The White Sox are a sexy pick in 2021, and for good reason. They’re loaded with young talent, and they’re going to hit at just about every spot in the order. They added pitching and are Michael Kopech back as a potential lottery ticket. The Twins won the division last season, but that isn’t likely to hold up over a full season, at least based on how things look right now. Cleveland shipped off Francisco Lindor but added Andres Gimenez, Amed Rosario, and Eddie Rosario, and they have some solid young pitching. But they also lost Carlos Santana and shipped out Mike Clevinger last season, so they might be a team headed in the opposite direction. The Tigers are still at least a couple of years away from competing based on their current rebuild, but the Royals made some interesting moves this offseason. They added Carlos Santana to the middle of their lineup and are rolling the dice on a bounceback from Andrew Benintendi to lengthen their lineup. If a few things go their way and their young pitching takes a step forward, they could make some noise in the Central. At +4,000, they’re worth a dart throw along with the White Sox.
Bet: White Sox -135 and Royals +4,000
AL West
The AL West is completely up for grabs, and the Athletics would have better odds if they made any kind of attempt to get better this offseason. The Astros lost George Springer, but they still have a lineup that will feature Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker. Their rotation is more of a question mark without Justin Verlander, but they’re going to hit. The team that the Angels put on the field with Mike Trout continues to be borderline criminal, but a healthy Shohei Ohtani and some improved depth could give them a fighting chance. The smart money here is on the team that has done it before and needs the least to go right in order to be successful in 2021.
Bet: Astros +150
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.