MLB Futures: Best Bets for National League MVP (2020)

I’ve previously highlighted my favorite picks for the 2020 American League MVP. As I noted in the intro to that piece, it’s the field chasing a monster favorite Mike Trout for that award. It’s more wide open in the National League with new Dodger and 2018 American League MVP Mookie Betts leading the way at +550 odds, per DraftKings Sportsbook (all odds going forward are from DraftKings Sportsbook). Trout’s the only player with odds shorter than +1,000 to win the American League MVP, whereas three players — the aforementioned Betts, Cody Bellinger (+700), and Christian Yelich (+700) — come in at shorter odds for the National League MVP this season.

The betting landscapes for MVP between both leagues are different. Unfortunately, for small bankroll recreational gamblers looking to chase a dark horse at a big number, I don’t see a player in the same mold as Austin Meadows and his tasty +12,500 line for the American League MVP Award in the National League. None of the four players highlighted below have odds longer than +7,000. The first two players featured have betting lines identical to the player in the American League MVP piece, Francisco Lindor, with the shortest odds at +1,000. Although, there’s a former National League MVP among the quartet below who has solid odds at +2,500. Additionally, there is one dark horse highlighted who has a juicy line of +6,600. Below, I discuss four players, coincidentally, from the wide-open National League East with compelling cases and viable paths to the 2020 National League MVP award.

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Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL): +1,000
Last year, Acuna finished fifth in National League MVP voting, per Baseball-Reference. He had an outstanding second season in the majors as a 21-year-old. He nearly recorded a 40/40 season with 41 homers and 37 stolen bases and tallied a 126 wRC+, per FanGraphs. In addition to his offensive prowess, his baserunning and defensive work helped him total 5.6 FanGraphs WAR (fWAR).

As good as Acuna was offensively last year, he was better in rookie season with a 143 wRC+. That’s not meant as a slight against his work at the dish in 2019. Rather, I point to his offensive production in his rookie season to make note of the fact he’s already shown a higher offensive ceiling with MLB’s pre-rabbit ball than in an excellent sophomore campaign. Regardless of what ball MLB uses this year, Acuna’s going to put his loud hitting tools to work and rake at a high level. Further, at his young age, he’s not necessarily a finished product and has room for growth. He has the tools to be the type of well-rounded star who captures an MVP award.

Juan Soto (WSH): +1,000
Acuna’s not the only precocious stud patrolling the outfield for a National League East club. Soto’s actually younger and will play this season at 21 years old. In addition to being younger than Acuna, Soto’s been a superior offensive player through two seasons. In 1,202 plate appearances in his career, Acuna has 67 homers with a 10.1 BB%, 25.9 K%, .246 ISO, .365 OBP, and 133 wRC+. In 1,153 plate appearances, Soto has 56 homers with a 16.2 BB%, 20.0 K%, .248 ISO, .403 OBP, and 143 wRC+. Acuna’s faster and added more value to his team on the bases, but Soto’s a better hitter.

FanGraphs grades Acuna’s defense more favorably than Soto’s. Couple Acuna’s baserunning value added with FanGraphs’ defensive grade and his 9.3 fWAR through two years edges out Soto’s 8.5 fWAR. Is Acuna actually a better defender, though? He might not be.

Using the Statcast defensive metric Outs Above Average available at Baseball Savant, Soto was better than Acuna last season. Out of 264 qualified fielders, Acuna’s negative-one Outs Above Average ranked tied for 162nd while Soto’s six Outs Above Average ranked tied for 43rd. Soto’s bat is of MVP caliber and his defense might’ve been underrated by advanced metrics other than Outs Above Average. He finished ninth in National League MVP voting last year. If his defense gets more credit from voters this year and he continues to mash, then he’ll have a shot at capturing National League MVP hardware.

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Bryce Harper (PHI): +2,500
Before Acuna and Soto were shining in their early 20s in the bigs, Harper was doing so. Harper’s a veteran of over 1,000 games in “The Show,” but he’s still only 27 years old. He also took home the National League MVP in 2015 with a gargantuan season. In his MVP campaign, he crushed 42 homers with a .319 ISO, .460 OBP, 197 wRC+, and 9.3 fWAR.

That year is Harper’s only one totaling more than 5.0 fWAR. His next-highest total is 4.8 fWAR totaled in just 111 games in 2017. Last year, he piled up 4.6 fWAR. He’s been excellent, but he’s failed to duplicate his 2015 success.

Harper was quite good in his first season with the Phillies, but with less poor luck he could’ve been even better. In 682 plate appearances last year, Harper slashed .260/.372/.510 with 35 homers and a 125 wRC+. However, the lefty slugger’s expected stats were better. Harper totaled a .279 expected average and .548 expected slugging, per Baseball Savant. He’s a Statcast darling and out of 250 qualified hitters, he ranked tied for 21st in Barrels per Plate Appearance (8.7 Brls/PA%) and 13th with an average FB/LD exit velocity of 96.9 MPH.

Additionally, Harper closed his first season with the Phillies on a higher note than it began. In the first half, Harper managed a .370 OBP, .217 ISO, and 117 wRC+. In the second half, he totaled a .376 OBP, .295 ISO, and 136 wRC+. While I can’t speak to Harper’s mindset, it doesn’t seem far fetched to suggest he needed some time to adjust to his new team and was pressing early to prove he was worth his large contract. Regardless of the reasoning for his solid, but slow start, it’s promising he kicked it up a notch down the stretch.

Finally, his defense could help get him over the hump to claim a second National League MVP Award. FanGraphs graded Harper’s defense as a plus last year for the first time since his rookie season back in 2012. He also graded out above average at Baseball Savant, ranking tied for 122nd with one Out Above Average. As Harper’s inclusion in this piece suggests, I believe he’s capable of a blowup season like the one he already has on his resume in his 2015 National League MVP campaign.

J.T. Realmuto (PHI): +6,600
Realmuto also played his first season for the Phillies last year. The 28-year-old catcher had his career-best season in his first outside of the Marlins’ organization. His 5.7 fWAR in 2019 is actually the highest mark of any of the candidates suggested in this piece. The biggest knock on Realmuto is that his ceiling — especially on offense — simply isn’t as high as the others in this piece or numerous other candidates available to wager on at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Having said that, the bar is lower on offense for catchers. In 2019, catchers hit .236/.308/.405 with an 85 wRC+, per FanGraphs. Comparatively, Realmuto slashed .275/.328/.493 with a 108 wRC+ last year. He’s exhibited a higher offensive ceiling, too. In 2018, he hit .277/.340/.484 with a 126 wRC+.

Realmuto isn’t just an offensive-minded catcher. In fact, FanGraphs credited him with the most defensive value accumulated at the catcher position. Part of his defensive value comes from pitch framing. FanGraphs ranked him ninth in framing and Baseball Prospectus graded him eighth in framing runs.

As an added bonus, Realmuto could get credit from voters if Philadelphia’s pitchers take a step forward this year. Last year, the Phillies’ starters ranked 17th in ERA (4.64), according to FanGraphs. Their 2020 rotation gets a potentially big difference-maker with the free-agent signing of Zack Wheeler. If the Phillies’ rotation creeps into the top-10 in ERA this year, voters might give Realmuto’s game-calling some credit for the improvement. A catcher hasn’t won the MVP award in either league since Buster Posey won the National League MVP in 2012, but Realmuto has the combination of defensive and offensive talent to end the drought.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive follow him @BChad50.