MLB Futures: Best Bets for Rookie of the Year Winners (2021)
When it comes to the 2021 Rookie of the Year races, we’re going to get weird. Since 2020 was such a disaster and they only played an extremely abbreviated season, Major League Baseball adjusted their rookie qualifications for players who played in 2020. Kyle Lewis (American League) and Devin Williams (National League) took home the Rookie of the Year awards last season and are ineligible to win again in 2021, but a ton of other players are retaining their eligibility.
Unlike in previous years, September did count toward days of service time for rookies in 2021, which results in players like James Karinchak, Jo Adell, and Daulton Varsho losing their rookie eligibility. But the season was so short that many other players who were up with their big league clubs for much of the season are still technically being considered rookies again in 2021. Randy Arozarena? Ryan Mountcastle? Ian Anderson? Sixto Sanchez? Dylan Carlson? They’re all rookies! Let’s. Get. Weird.
Below, I’ll show you the odds for a bunch of the rookies who have a chance to win the Rookie of the Year award in each league this season, and I’ll give you my favorite picks. Let’s start with the American League.
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American League Rookie of the Year
This is as deep a list of rookies who could legitimately win the American League Rookie of the Year award as I can remember, and the added wrinkle is that we have already seen a preview of many of these players. Everyone who watched baseball at the end of last year knows who Randy Arozarena is. Ryan Mountcastle batted .333 in 35 games last season. Nate Pearson dealt with some injuries but was touching 100 MPH with his fastball. Bobby Dalbec hit eight home runs in 23 games and could very well hit more than 30 for the Red Sox in 2021.
When I’m betting on things like Rookie of the Year this far out, I like to start by taking a look at playing time, including when a player is likely to be called up. If a rookie comes up a month into the season and lights it up for a few months, he could still win the award. But he is at a bigger disadvantage the more time he misses, and so I like to focus on players who I know will play right away. And that brings me to one of my favorite “rookies†for 2021.
For those who follow me on Twitter, read my writing over at FantasyPros, or have looked at some of my publicly available drafts this offseason, you’ll know that I am all in on Ryan Mountcastle. Do I think he is going to hit .333 again? No. But I think he could hit 25+ home runs with a .280 batting average and 150 combined RBI and runs scored. And if he does that over 140 or so games, I think that will be enough for him to take home the award.
As for a long shot who I think has a real shot at stealing this award, give me Bobby Dalbec at +2000. Dalbec is penciled in as the starting first baseman for the Red Sox and has power to all fields. And with almost 120 games in American League East ballparks, the young slugger is a few hot streaks away from a legitimate shot at 40 bombs. And if he’s able to put up power like that, he’ll definitely be in the conversation for this award.
Pick: Ryan Mountcastle (+1200)
Longshot: Bobby Dalbec (+2000)
National League Rookie of the Year
The American League Rookie of the Year race feels a bit deeper as things stand here in the middle of March, whereas the National League race seems to be more top-heavy. Ke’Bryan Hayes is the favorite, but I’m not sold he’ll have the numbers to run away with the award, especially on a bad Pirates team. Sixto Sanchez impressed in 39 innings in 2020, but he might not have the strikeout numbers to stand out enough unless he really dominates in other areas and steals a few extra wins. Dylan Carlson struggled mightily at times in 2020 but did manage to finish the year strong and is an intriguing option at +750.
But my money is on Ian Anderson, who I think could be an ace as soon as this season. Anderson pitched to a sterling 1.95 ERA in 32 1/3 innings in 2020, and he looked the part of a former third overall pick who breezed through the minor leagues. His fastball sat in the mid-90s, and he sported a and 11.41 K/9, which also backed up what he did in the lower levels. The only question could be innings. Anderson won’t turn 23 until May and only threw 32 1/3 innings in 2020. Will the Braves let him throw more than 140 innings in 2021.
If they do, we could be looking at the 2021 National League Rookie of the Year for +750.
Pick: Ian Anderson (+750)
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.