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MLB Futures: Best Bets for Saves Leader (2020)

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With the MLB season just around the corner, now is the time to start digging into futures odds. This season presents some unique challenges for bettors. The shortened campaign means that for league leaders races like home runs and saves, that a hot streak can propel an unlikely name to the top of the leaderboard. In a 162 game season, the cream will usually rise to the top. With 102 fewer contests per team, it is open season for everyone. Let’s take a look at the favorites to win the saves race. And check out our consensus odds for 2020 MLB saves leader here.

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2020 Saves Leader (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

  • Aroldis Chapman (+650)
  • Roberto Osuna (+700)
  • Kelly Jansen (+750)
  • Liam Hendricks (+950)
  • Alex Colome (+1000)
  • Brad Hand (+1000)
  • Josh Hader (+1000)
  • Kirby Yates (+1000)
  • Taylor Rogers (+1000)

For complete odds please visit FanDuel Sportsbook. 

The Top Candidates

Aroldis Chapman (RP – NYY) (+650)
2019 stats: 37 saves, five blown saves, 3-2, 2.21 ERA, 13.42 K/9, 11.09 Blown Save % (BS%)
Aroldis Chapman sits as the current favorite to lead the majors in saves this season. The Yankees should win at least 60 percent of their games (.636 last season). If they produce save chances in half of those games, and Chapman matches his 11.09 blown save percentage from a season ago, he could be good for 16 saves on the season. Chapman has the overpowering stuff to improve on his blown save percentage, but playing in the AL East will likely lead to him seeing a similar rate this season. Our projections at FantasyPros have him earmarked for a three-way tie with 13 saves on the season.

Roberto Osuna (RP – HOU) (+700)
2019 stats: 38 saves, six blown saves, 4-3, 2.63 ERA, 10.10 K/9, 14.28 BS%
Roberto Osuna had the second most saves of anyone on this list last season. He plays for one of the best teams in the entire league, and could very well wind up with the most save opportunities. Houston won 66 percent of their games last season. If we subtract three percent as we did for the Yankees that will give us 63 percent of 60 games, which equals out to 38 wins. If the Astros create 19 save opportunities and hand them all to Osuna, his 14.28 percent blown save percentage would put him at 16 saves for the season. Osuna should vie for the league lead in saves on the shortened season. Our projections at FantasyPros have him earmarked for a three-way tie with 13 saves on the season.

Kelly Jansen (RP – LAD) (+750)
2019 stats: 33 saves, eight blown saves, 5-3, 3.71 ERA, 11.42 K/9, 19.51 BS%
Kelly Jansen is arguably the most interesting name on this list. His 2019 numbers are not great, but much of that can be blamed on playing hurt. The Dodgers won 65.4 percent of their games last season and should be around a similar mark this season. If Los Angeles wins 38 games and creates 19 save opportunities, Jansen would be at 15 saves for the season based on his 2019 blown save rate. However, Jansen’s eight blown saves were an uncharacteristic career-high and exceeded the combined total of blown saves he had in his previous two seasons. If we use his 2018 blown save rate of 9.52 percent (he only had one blown save in 2017), he would be at 17 saves for the season. David Price opting out hurts the Dodgers win total projection, but actually increases the projected save opportunities Jansen may see this season. Our projections at FantasyPros have him earmarked for a three-way tie with 13 saves on the season.

Liam Hendricks (RP – OAK) (+950)
2019 stats: 25 saves, seven blown saves, 4-4, 1.80 ERA, 13.12 K/9, 21.87 BS%
Liam Hendricks is one of the most intriguing names on this list. His peripherals are great, but total saves is the end all, be all for this future. His ratios suggest a lower blown save percentage should be reached this season, but his 2019 rate shows his downside. Oakland won .599 percent of their games last season, a number which when adjusted equals out to 34 wins. A small ball team like Oakland could create more save opportunities per contest than the powerhouse teams listed above. This could lead to 18 save opportunities for Hendricks. At his 2019 blown save percentage, that would put him at 14 saves for the season. Our projections at FantasyPros have him earmarked for 11 saves on the season.

Alex Colome (RP – CWS) (+1000)
2019 stats: 30 saves, three blown saves, 4-5, 2.80 ERA, 8.11 K/9, 9.09 BS%
Prior to Michael Kopech opting out of the season and decreasing the Chicago White Sox projected win total, Alex Colome looked to be one of the best values on the board. His 9.09 blown save percentage suggests that he will make the most of his opportunities this season. The much improved White Sox should win 52-54 percent of their games this season. Their 32 projected wins could lead to around 17 save opportunities. Colome could convert 15 or 16 of them, putting him right in the mix to lead the league in saves. Our projections at FantasyPros have him earmarked for 10 saves on the season.

Brad Hand (RP – CLE) (+1000)
2019 stats: 34 saves, five blown saves, 6-4, 3.30 ERA, 13.23 K/9, 12.82 BS%
Brad Hand should find himself in the save leader mix this season. While he certainly has closer tools, he finds himself in trouble too much for comfort. His 3.30 ERA from last season is higher than anyone else on this list but the injured Kelly Jansen. His blown save rate is solid, but his ERA is more indicative of the erraticness he brings to the mound. Despite struggling mightily to open the season, Cleveland won .574 percent of their games in 2019. Barring Hand meltdowns, that number could be closer to 60 percent this season. If we use the .574 winning percentage they would be at 35 wins for the season, with about 17 save opportunities. His 12.82 blown save rate would put him at 14 to 15 wins for the season. Knowing Hand, 13 may be the safer number. Our projections at FantasyPros have him earmarked for 11 saves on the season.

Josh Hader (RP – MIL) (+1000)
2019 stats: 37 saves, seven blown saves 3-5, 2.62 ERA, 16.51 K/9, 15.90 BS%
Milwaukee may be a bit of a letdown this season. The middle of their order will keep them in the wild card conversation for much of the season, but they do not have the pitching talent to make a serious push. There should be some save chances for Hader as the Brewers figure to find themselves embroiled in a number of one or two-run games. Milwaukee was a .549 winning percentage team last season but could drop closer to the .500-.520 mark this year. A generous 32 wins could give the Brewers up to 16 save opportunities to hand to Hader. That would put Hader at roughly 13 saves for the season if we use his 2019 blown save percentage (15.90 percent). Our projections at FantasyPros have him earmarked for 11 saves on the season.

Kirby Yates (RP – SD) (+1000)
2019 stats: 41 saves, three blown saves, 0-5, 1.19 ERA, 15.09 K/9, 6.81 BS%
The top reliever in the majors in 2019, Kirby Yates managed to record a save in 58.57 percent of Milwaukee’s wins. That coupled with his minuscule 6.81 percent makes him a very intriguing option for this future. San Diego should be much improved on offense this season, and could very well flirt with the .500 mark (.432 last season). If we temper expectations a bit, and peg them at .480 that would put them at 28-29 wins with about 15 save opportunities. If we use his 2019 blown save rate of 6.81 percent that would put him at 14 saves for the season. Our projections at FantasyPros have him earmarked for 12 saves on the season.

Taylor Rogers (RP – MIN) (+1000)
2019 stats: 30 saves, six blown saves, 2-4, 2.61 ERA, 11.73 K/9, 16.66 BS%
Taylor Rogers is a talented reliever but is not really in the same class as most of the others on this list. He was able to ride a white-hot Minnesota Twins team to 30 saves in 36 attempts in 2019 and should be among the league leaders if the Twins can manage to win the AL Central again. Minnesota won 63.6 percent of their games last season if we bump them down to 60.6 percent that would put them at 36 wins, with up to 18 save opportunities. If we use his 2019 blown save percentage that would put him at 15 saves for the season. 12 to 13 is probably a more realistic number for Rogers based on his peripherals. Our projections at FantasyPros have him earmarked for 11 saves on the season.

Final Thoughts

As any avid baseball fan would notice from my personal save projection math, no reliever takes on every save opportunity a team has. This is sometimes because they often undergo a baseball version of load management, where coaching staffs are just as concerned with maintaining their closer for the full 162 games as they are with ensuring he is on the mound for every single save opportunity. With the season getting shortened to just 60 games, I am expecting an all-out blitz in terms of top bats and pitchers playing at every possible opportunity in order to maximize their win potential in what will be a mad dash for playoff positioning. The MLB season is usually viewed as a marathon, not a sprint. This season, it is an all-out sprint. 

As for our lean for this future, Kelly Jansen gets the slight nod for those looking for a single play. However, with all of the odds being +650 or better, we can stuff four or five relievers into a plan of attack in order to chase a profit. The strategy here is a four-player tandem that promises at least +250 based on the four units played. You, of course, could also go with a partial unit on all four to equal to a full unit. The players to key are Kelly Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, Roberto Osuna, and Kirby Yates. This way we corner the top teams in baseball, and also have the top closer from 2019. 

Pick: Aroldis Chapman (+650), Roberto Osuna (+700), Kelly Jansen (+750), and Kirby Yates (+1000)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.