MLB Futures: Best Bets for Team Win Totals (2021)
Predicting win totals for the 2021 MLB season is an interesting exercise after 2020. Last season was so strange that we essentially have to throw most of it out when attempting to project wins for 2021. A 60 game sample is practically a third of a season, and things started up before getting shut down for multiple months. Once baseball was up and running, it was a mess. Players had to miss games, entire teams were shut down for weeks at a time, and the game felt like a shell of its usual self.
COVID is still here, but MLB is eyeing a full season in 2021. The NBA and NHL successfully completed their postseason bubbles and are back up and running with their own full seasons, and the NFL just played an entire season without having to cancel a single game. And despite persistent bickering between the MLB and the MLB Players Association, Spring Training is upon us.
As for what to expect in 2021, the Dodgers are the team to beat after winning the World Series in 2020 and adding Trevor Bauer to their rotation this offseason. But after them, it’s pretty wide open. The Yankees can still hit with the best of them, Padres have been gearing up for a run for two years now, the Braves are just as good as they were last season (on paper), and Steve Cohen’s new-look Mets have entered the conversation.
Below, we’ll take a look at the best bets for MLB win totals in 2021, with a focus on where you might be able to find some value.
Check out our consensus MLB over/under win totals and odds from all sportsbooks >>
Atlanta Braves – 91.5 Wins
The Braves went 35-25 in 2020, which comes out to a .583 winning percentage. In a full season, 92 wins would require only a .568 winning percentage. If they were in another division, their projected wins would probably be higher, but they’re being discounted because they share the NL East with the New York Mets, Washington Nationals, Philadelphia Phillies, and Miami Marlins (more on them a bit later).
The Braves have a deep and talented lineup after re-signing Marcell Ozuna and a strong young rotation now supported by the addition of veteran Charlie Morton. If Mike Soroka can successfully return from his Achilles injury, they could have three legitimate potential aces in Max Fried, Ian Anderson, and Soroka. I have the Braves pegged for 94 wins and the NL East title this season.
St. Louis Cardinals – 86 Wins
Oddsmakers keep pretending the Cardinals aren’t going to run away with the NL Central, and even FanGraphs only have them for 80 wins. The Pittsburgh Pirates are probably going to be one of the worst teams in baseball, the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds both appear to be selling off talent rather than focusing on winning in 2021, and the Milwaukee Brewers don’t appear to have the firepower to compete with St. Louis. The Cardinals are going to cruise to a division title, and they may very well win 90 games along the way. I only have them marked down for 88, but I’m taking the over on 86 games won either way.
Boston Red Sox – 79.5 Wins
Barring something unexpected, the Red Sox are not going to win the AL East in 2021. The New York Yankees are the team to beat in the American League, and the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays are both legitimate threats. The Rays traded Blake Snell and lost Charlie Morton, but they regrouped and still have depth in both their lineup and their rotation. The Blue Jays might have the best lineup in the league after adding George Springer and Marcus Semien, and their pitching should at least be better in 2021. The Orioles, well, they’re going to be terrible.
As for the Red Sox, 80 wins is a low bar. And while they were bad and went 24-36 in 2020, this could and should be a different team in 2021. If J.D. Martinez can return to form, the top of their lineup is as good as any with Alex Verdugo, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Martinez, and Christian Vazquez. And after that, they have inconsistent bats who should provide some real power if given the chance to play regularly in Hunter Renfroe, Franchy Cordero, Bobby Dalbec, and Marwin Gonzalez. They won’t have Chris Sale in their rotation until at least halfway through the season, but they are getting Eduardo Rodriguez back, have Nathan Eovaldi returning, and took a flier on Garrett Richards. Boston doesn’t have much depth anywhere, but they’re going to win at least 80 games this season.
Kansas City Royals – 73.5 Wins
The Kansas City Royals quietly built a pretty deep lineup this offseason, adding Andrew Benintendi and Carlos Santana to a core that already included Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez, Jorge Soler, Adalberto Mondesi, and Hunter Dozier. Are they going to beat out the Chicago White Sox for the AL Central? Probably not. But 73.5 wins feels like an insult, especially in a division that might not have a 90-game winner. The steps the Royals took this offseason—with many other small market teams cutting back on payrolls and staff after a down financial year—are admirable, but they probably aren’t ready to seriously content just yet. But 74 wins? I think they end up closer to 80.
Miami Marlins – 71.5 Wins
The Marlins quietly had a winning record in 2020, going 31-29. Did they do enough to improve their team this offseason and contend over the long haul? No, but 71.5 wins seems like an overcorrection. The NL East is stacked, yes, but the Marlins have a stable of young arms that should keep them competitive in games nearly every day. They have some depth but not the top-end talent needed to truly compete, but they aren’t the Orioles, Rockies, or Tigers. I have them down for 74 wins and think they can win 75+ if a few bounces go their way.
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.