MLB Futures: Best Player Prop Bets (2021)
Spring Training is in full swing, and we are only a few weeks away from the start of the MLB season. So, now is a great time to take a look at the current odds for some of the biggest player props for the 2021 season. Below, we’ll take a look at our favorite bets for American and National League MVP and Cy Young Award winners and whether or not anyone can beat out Adalberto Mondesi for the most stolen bases in 2021.
Check out our consensus MLB over/under win totals and odds from all sportsbooks >>
American League MVP
The current American League MVP odds are wild right now in that they are very clearly “Mike Trout and everyone else.†And after Trout, most of the other top candidates (based on the consensus odds) have some pretty big question marks. Alex Bregman batted .242 and struggled to a career-worst .801 OPS in his first season after Houston’s cheating scandal. Aaron Judge comes with big-time power but even bigger injury concerns. Jose Ramirez had an excellent 2020 but is just a season removed in which he went through a lengthy slump that lasted nearly half the season, and he no longer has Francisco Lindor sharing the same lineup. Anthony Rendon finished third in the NL MVP voting in 2019, but he has only topped 30 home runs one time in his career when the baseballs were juiced to the extreme in 2019. Can he really out-produce a healthy Trout for the award?
Trout is obviously the safe bet here, but I like some of the longer odds more than the other names mentioned in the Top 5 here. The White Sox could win 100 games this season, and they’re going to get a ton of national attention because of their young talent. What about Yoan Moncada at +2500 or Eloy Jimenez +3000 for AL MVP? I’d rather roll the dice on those longer odds than on any of the names above.
Pick: Mike Trout (+200)
Longshot: Eloy Jimenez (+3000)
National League MVP
The National League MVP odds are much different than what we see in the American League. Here, the Top 5 are all grouped together, and the odds gradually increase after this group. These are five of the best and most exciting young players in all of baseball. Mookie Betts finished second in the MVP voting last season and helped carry the Dodgers to a World Series title. Juan Soto just batted .351 with 13 home runs and six stolen bases in 47 games as a 21-year-old. Cody Bellinger won the award in 2019. Ronald Acuna hit 41 home runs and stole 37 bases while finishing fifth in the voting in 2019.
But my money is on Fernando Tatis Jr. Tatis his 17 home runs and stole 11 bases with a .937 OPS in 59 games in 2020. Oh, and his Hard Hit % last year was 54.9%. Most projections have him pegged for 35+ home runs, 100+ runs scored, 100+ RBI, and 25+ stolen bases while batting .280 with an OPS around .900. Tatis just turned 22 years old in January, and we haven’t seen the best of him yet. He does everything well, and his energy is contagious. That’s what an MVP looks like, and I think he leads the new-look Padres to a successful season and takes home the award.
Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. (+850)
American League Cy Young
Shane Bieber won the 2020 American League Cy Young Award in a unanimous vote, and I have him repeating in 2021. One of the biggest things working in his favor, unlike three of the other names on this list, is that he doesn’t pitch in the American League East. That means he doesn’t have to face the American League East offenses in American League East ballparks as often as Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow, and Hyun Jin Ryu. Now, the American League Central should be much improved in 2021, and divisional matchups only matter so much in predicting these awards. But given the names on this list, Bieber is who I am most confident in performing well enough over the course of a full season.
Glasnow only threw 57 1/3 innings last year and 60 2/3 innings in 2019, and his career-high in innings in the 111 2/3 he threw in 2018. Ryu is a veteran who is used to a full starter’s workload, but he is turning 34 years old before the start of the season and has dealt with a number of injuries in recent years. Lucas Giolito looks the part of a rising star in the league, but he has never had an ERA below 3.41 in a full season in the big leagues. And if you make your way further down the list, none of the other starters jump out as obviously dart throw candidates.
Pick: Shane Bieber (+400)
National League Cy Young
I included more names for this National League Cy Young section because these names all feel like they’re in the same tier to me, and I didn’t see a clear cut-off until I got to Max Fried. Jacob deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball and is the clear favorite to win the award again. And the only reason you’re going to get better odds on deGrom than you will for Bieber or Cole is because of this deep field in the NL.
Of these names, my favorite is Jack Flaherty, both because of the +1500 odds and because I believe he has one of the best shots at winning the award. His odds are being dragged down because he finished the shortened 2020 season with a 4.91 ERA, but that number is inflated by one disastrous start near the end of the season in which he allowed nine earned runs. A week before that start, Flaherty had a 2.95 ERA. In 2019, he pitched to a 2.75 ERA and struck out 231 batters over 196 1/3 innings.
We won’t walk through every single one of the names on the chart above, but there are some pretty obvious question marks for all of them after deGrom. And at +1500, I’m putting my money on Flaherty.
Pick: Jack Flaherty (+1500)
Most Stolen Bases
Those who play fantasy baseball know that stolen bases are increasingly hard to come by in today’s game. MVP and Cy Young awards are awarded to the best players in the league, but that doesn’t necessarily have to be the case for stolen bases. Steals are the product of speed, the ability to get on base, a little bit of luck, and, as is often the case, the organizational philosophy. The analytics tend to frown on stolen bases, and more and more teams have adopted a base-to-base approach that looks to avoid “giving away outs.â€
Which brings us to these five players. Adalberto is the favorite to steal the most bases because of his blazing speed and excellent track record. In 2018, he stole 32 bases in 75 games. In 2019, 43 bases, in 102 games. And last year he stole 24 bases in 59 games. When he gets on base, he’s a danger to run every time. Therein lies the problem, however. Mondesi has a career .284 on-base percentage, which is…bad. He has enjoyed a high BABIP throughout his career because of his speed, but his low walk rate and high strikeout rate hurt him. But he stole 24 bases in 59 games last season despite a .294 BABIP. Unless his on-base percentage craters even more, he could easily swipe 50 bases.
FanGraphs’ Roster Resource has Mondesi batting third for the Royals, but I don’t see that lasting, especially after they made a few moves to beef up their lineup this season. I think he’ll eventually move back into his usual spot near the top of the order while occasionally dropping down to the lower half if he slumps. In either scenario, he should run more than he would if he were batting in the middle.
The rest of the players on this list are excellent hitters who contribute as much or more with their bats as they do with their legs, so stolen bases are secondary. They’ll get on base more than Mondesi does, but they won’t run as often. As for a dark hose candidate with great odds, how about Victor Robles? He stole 28 bases in 2019 while batting at the bottom of the order. The Nationals want him to win the leadoff job, which could lead to 30+ stolen bases for the former top prospect. And his odds are currently +3300.
Pick: Adalberto Mondesi (-130)
Longshot: Victor Robles (+3300)
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.