MLB Futures: Best Win Total Bets for the AL East (2020)

The long-awaited 2020 Major League Baseball season is nearly upon us. But MLB bettors need not wait for the first pitch to get in on the action. Sportsbooks everywhere are offering several different futures wagers for the season, including team season win totals. This form of bet is popular largely because it enables bettors to have action on individual teams that they have strong edges on.

With the season shortened to 60 games, all coming against divisional opponents and those in the corresponding regional division from the other league, betting season win totals in 2020 is perhaps more focused than ever. Read on for a win total odds breakdown along with predictions for all five teams in the AL East division.

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AL East Win Totals

• New York Yankees: 38.5 wins (Over -120 | Under +100)
• Tampa Bay Rays: 34.5 (Over -110 | Under -110)
• Boston Red Sox: 31.5 wins (Over -125 | Under +100)
• Toronto Blue Jays: 27.5 (Over -110 | Under -110)
• Baltimore Orioles: 20.5 wins (Over -110 | Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FOXBet.

New York Yankees: O/U 38.5 Wins

It should come as no surprise that the Yankees have the highest win total among the AL East teams given their status as World Series co-favorites alongside the Los Angeles Dodgers. Winning two-thirds of their games to go over won’t be easy, but New York is at least well-equipped for the challenge.

Hitting
The Bronx Bombers figure to pick up right where they left off in 2019 in terms of offensive firepower. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez are the most notable names in a lineup that also includes DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Brett Gardner, and Miguel Andujar. Time will tell whether or not the shortened season benefits either hitters or pitchers, but the Yankees bats could be major beneficiaries if offense rises to the top.

Pitching
New York bolstered its starting rotation in the offseason with the blockbuster signing of ace Gerrit Cole. He leads a starting staff that also includes Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ, and James Paxton. While the Yankees rotation beyond Cole has to be considered the weakest point on the team, they really won’t have much reason to overextend their starters, given the bullpen depth behind them. Zack Britton, Chad Green, and Tommy Kahnle will lead the charge out of the pen until closer Aroldis Chapman can return from his battle with the coronavirus.

Prediction
While I fully expect the Yankees to be a playoff team and World Series contender in 2020, the win total line is simply too high for me to get excited about betting the over. As good as the team is, I’d prefer to bet the under on one of the highest numbers on the board, especially given the implications of a shortened season.

Henry’s Pick: Under 38.5 Total Wins (+100)

Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 34.5 Wins

The Tampa Bay Rays fly under the radar every year, and that’s largely due to their status as a small-market team. Bettors be warned! Do not sleep on the potential of the 2020 Rays.

Hitting
Offense isn’t exactly considered the Rays’ strong suit, but there are several names in the lineup capable of doing damage. Ji-Man Choi, Jose Martinez, and Austin Meadows are perhaps some of the most notable players to keep an eye on. Also, Tampa Bay’s position players are known for their superb defense. Brandon Lowe and Willy Adames are a talented duo at the middle infield positions, and Kevin Kiermaier is considered the best defensive centerfielder in baseball. Manuel Margot sits behind Kiermaier on the depth chart and could soon supplant him if he continues to hit well when given opportunities.

Pitching
Pitching is the Rays’ bread and butter. Manager Kevin Cash has become a master of the innovative “opener” strategy that follows traditional starters Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Charlie Morton in the rotation. After that, you can expect to see any number of hurlers on a given night for Tampa Bay, both at the start of the game as openers and at the end where the Rays do not have a designated closer.

Prediction
I like the Rays a lot this year, and I expect them to battle for the AL East crown alongside the Yankees. I’m not convinced that the betting market is giving Tampa Bay enough credit with a win total that’s four games lower than New York’s, as I project the race to be a bit closer.

Henry’s Pick: Over 34.5 Total Wins (-110)

Boston Red Sox: O/U 31.5 Wins

We have seen the Boston Red Sox rebound from disappointing seasons to win it all in the past decade. Unfortunately, it’s unlikely that such a bounce back from a playoff-less 2019 will occur in 2020.

Hitting
Boston’s offense is once again something to be feared. Even with Mookie Betts no longer in the clubhouse, plenty of talent remains. J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers lead what should be an explosive lineup. The Red Sox also have arguably one of the best defensive outfields in the MLB in the trio of Jackie Bradley Jr., Andrew Benintendi, and Alex Verdugo.

Pitching
Things get dicey on the mound for Boston. Chris Sale will miss the entire 2020 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and the Red Sox will also be forced to start the season without Eduardo Rodriguez after he contracted the coronavirus. That leaves Nathan Eovaldi as the Opening Day starter, with Ryan Weber and Martin Perez in the mix behind him. Brandon Workman will hold down the closer role nicely, but the rest of the Red Sox bullpen leaves a bit to be desired.

Prediction
For the Red Sox to surpass their season win total, they will need a whole lot of offense and overachievement from a thin pitching staff. This is a rare case where I will opt to pick against Pythagorean expectation. Despite the numbers projecting positive regression for Boston, I’m leaning towards a sub-.500 season.

Henry’s Pick: Under 31.5 Total Wins (+100)

Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 27.5 Wins

The Toronto Blue Jays will look to carry the momentum from a strong 2019 finish into the shortened 2020 campaign. If so, this could be a team that benefits mightily from the 60-game schedule. The youth movement is on, and the future is bright for Canada’s team.

Hitting
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the star of a loaded group of exciting young talent that calls Toronto home. He will look to build upon what was a bit of a disappointing rookie season based on the hype surrounding him. Coming to his aide in the Blue Jays’ lineup are Cavan Biggio, Bo Bichette, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Brandon Drury. All of the young talents will only benefit from more game experience.

Pitching
Toronto’s starting pitching will benefit from a pair of offseason additions in Hyun Jin Ryu and Tanner Roark. The two should slot right in atop the rotation that also includes veterans Chase Anderson and Matt Shoemaker. The bullpen is where the question marks arise for the Jays. Ken Giles is a capable closer, but he isn’t 100% reliable. Bridging the gap from the starters to Giles could also prove challenging.

Prediction
The energy and enthusiasm of youth cannot be understated when it comes to handicapping the Blue Jays. The team will be up against it from a scheduling and facility standpoint, as they won’t be able to play their home games in Toronto. Buffalo, New York, home of the team’s Triple-A affiliate, could wind up being Toronto’s home for the 2020 season. Despite that wrinkle, I think the Blue Jays are capable of a .500 finish.

Henry’s Pick: Over 27.5 Total Wins (-110)

Baltimore Orioles: O/U 20.5 Wins

A betting market win total of just one-third of the entire regular season schedule says it all. This year will be another long one for Orioles fans.

Hitting
The Orioles will rely on shortstop Jose Iglesias and catcher Pedro Severino to lead the offensive production. One can only hope for a Chris Davis career resurrection in the shortened season, but such hopes are slim. Renato Nunez will supply the lineup with power from the designated hitter spot.

Pitching
The outlook is very bleak on the mound for Baltimore this season. John Means was respectable in 2019 with a 3.60 ERA, but he will not be the Opening Day starter as he deals with arm fatigue. Instead, it will be Tommy Milone getting the season-opening start. Veterans Alex Cobb and Wade LeBlanc will factor into the rotation as well. Mychal Givens and Miguel Castro are respectable arms in the Orioles’ bullpen.

Prediction
As hard as it may seem to fall short of winning 20 out of 60 games, the Orioles would have landed on the under of 20.5 wins a season ago. The club had just 19 wins through the first 60 games. It’s hard to envision Baltimore stringing together much success against the talented teams both in their division and those in the NL East.

Henry’s Pick: Under 20.5 Total Wins (-110)

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.