MLB Futures: Best Win Total Bets for the NL Central (2020)
The MLB season is rapidly approaching, which means locking in our win total future bets is now a priority. Predicting the division winner from the NL Central is among the hardest tasks in all of sports, and has become even more daunting now that the Cincinnati Reds have emerged. While no team in the NL Central projects as a true World Series contender, there is enough talent for any team to make a deep playoff run, and even make it to the National League Championship Series. Let’s take a look at the win totals for what could very well be the most competitive division in baseball.
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NL Central Win Totals (via DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Cincinnati Reds: 31.5 wins (o -118/u -106)
- Milwaukee Brewers: 30.5 wins (o -112/u -112)
- Pittsburgh Pirates: 25.5 wins (o +110/u -134)
- Chicago Cubs: 32.5 wins (o -112/u -112)
- St. Louis Cardinals: 32.5 wins (o -112/u -112)
Cincinnati Reds: 31.5 wins (o -118/u -106)
2019 win percentage: .463
Co-favorites to win the division at FanDuel, the Cincinnati Reds have rather quietly been pegged as a true contender in the NL Central this season. The trade for Trevor Bauer last season changed the complexion of this team, and now that they have added Shogo Akiyama and Mike Moustakas, they have a strong enough offense to peel off some extra wins. The Reds had a .463 win percentage in 2019, but as we can see from their win total at DraftKings, they are expected to be much improved this season.
It is not out of the question that they win the division altogether, but what we are trying to ascertain here is whether or not they can eclipse 31.5 wins. Hitting 32 wins is doable for this Reds team if they stay healthy, but are likely one positive COVID-19 test to a key player, or a Trevor Bauer mid-season ‘opt-out’ away from being an under play. The Reds win total sits at 32.5 at BetMGM, suggesting that there may indeed be value in the 31.5 number at DraftKings. The over is the lean as the Reds rotation is unrivaled as far as the NL Central is concerned, and if Bauer can learn to pitch at the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, he could plausibly propel them to emerge from the division with the crown.
Milwaukee Brewers 30.5 (o -112/u -112)
2019 win percentage: .549
The Milwaukee Brewers have the strongest offense in the division, but outside of closer Josh Hader, they arguably have the worst pitching staff in the NL Central. They battled their way to second place last season, and if the offense can get hot, they will be able to exceed their .549 2019 win percentage. If the Brewers match their 2019 percentage they will win at least 32 games this season, which makes the 30.5 number seem very fair. The Brewers win total sits at 31.5 at FoxBet, while at FanDuel it sits at 30.5, but with -118 juice on the over. These two numbers suggest that the over has indeed been the more popular lean for bettors who saw fit to take this particular team total. As long as the Brewers have perennial MVP candidate Christian Yelich, the Brewers are going to be able to be competitive enough to contend for the division crown. The offseason additions to an already impressive offense should put them in the mix to win 33 plus games and pace the NL Central, especially when the addition of the DH is taken into account. Tap the over 30.5 at DraftKings.
Pittsburgh Pirates: 25.5 wins (o +110/u -134)
2019 win percentage: .426
The Pittsburgh Pirates win total of 25.5 is 60 games played multiplied by their 2019 win percentage. One of the worst teams in baseball, the Pirates offense got worse this offseason. They lost star player Starling Marte, and also lost veteran slugger Melky Cabrera. If they are going to even approach 26 wins this season, the Pirates are going to need their young and talented, but wildly inconsistent starting rotation to carry the load. The loss of Francisco Liriano hurts, but there is still enough promise on the pitching staff to power them to 20+ wins. However, his is an organization in disrepair that has traded all of its top talent (Austin Meadows, Gerrit Cole, and Tyler Glasnow), and it shows. The under appears to be the smarter play, as the Pirates are going to have a tough time scoring enough runs to consistently put themselves in a position to win. The 34 cents juice on the under at DraftKings is a bit steep, but this win total has only 10 cents juice at BetMGM, making it the preferred book for under bettors. Be sure to remember to check our live odds for the best possible lines before placing any action.
Chicago Cubs 32.5 wins (o -112/u -112)
2019 win percentage: .519
The most balanced team in the NL Central, the Chicago Cubs are the favorites to win the division (+225) at DraftKings. Posted at 32.5 wins, there are 12 cents juice on each side. The Cubs have a strong lineup from one to six and sport a talented, but uninspiring starting rotation. 32.5 wins seem fair as it will likely take at least 33 wins to claim the division. The win total currently sits at 31.5 at FanDuel, making it the preferred book for over bettors (-122). 32 wins is a much more attractive proposition, one that carries a significantly higher win percentage. Chicago will need their bullpen to cooperate to hit the total but are a very attractive play at FanDuel. The difference in lines here is yet another reminder to always check our live odds page before placing any action.
St. Louis Cardinals: 32.5 wins (o -112/u -112)
2019 win percentage: .562
Last year’s division winners, the St. Louis Cardinals are expected to take a step back in 2020. They did not make any major moves this offseason, most notably adding pitchers Kwang-Hyun Kim and Matthew Liberatore. Paul Goldschmidt makes the top of the lineup formidable, but it is the pitching staff that will be the key to the Cardinals’ success this season. Losing Marcell Ozuna is an underrated loss, as he added some pop and speed to a batting lineup that needs strong outfield bats.
33 wins is likely to be the magic number for the NL Central, making over the play here only if you believe that they can take the division crown. The under appears to be the smarter play if taking the line at DraftKings. However, FanDuel has the line at 31.5, which is a much more appealing number for those who are looking for the over play. Under 32.5 wins has a higher win probability, as the Cardinals will be contending with a much more competitive division this season. Those comfortable with under bets should tap the line at DraftKings.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.