MLB Futures: Best Win Total Bets for the NL West (2020)
The MLB season is almost upon us. That means it is time to lock in our future bets. We hope that we have heard the last of the COVID-19 related opt-outs of the shortened season by now, so we have a better picture of team strengths, weaknesses, and sudden holes.
The NL West is one of the more interesting divisions in baseball, not for who is going to win the division (the Dodgers), but for the jockeying going on behind them in the standings. Arizona and San Diego made the offseason moves to signal their intent to compete. Last year’s second-place team lost two important pieces but will be looking to make another Cinderella march into playoff positioning.
Finally, Colorado, a talented offensive team that should be able to score runs with the best of them, will look to improve from their pitching staff to power them past the .500 mark, and possibly to the playoffs. We all have a good idea of who is going to win the division, but the win total futures offer both value and intrigue. Let’s take a look at the teams.
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NL West Win Totals (via DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Los Angeles Dodgers: 37.5 wins (o -110/ u-110)
- Arizona Diamondbacks: 31.5 wins (o +100/u -124)
- San Diego Padres: 30.5 wins (o -112/u -112)
- San Francisco Giants: 25.5 wins (o +132/u -165)
- Colorado Rockies: 26.5 wins (o -118/u -106)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 37.5 wins (o -110/ u-110)
2019 win percentage: .654
The Los Angeles Dodgers no longer look like the powerhouse they have been for the last several years. Adding Mookie Betts to the lineup gives them two former MVP’s, making their lineup one of the best in baseball. However, they lost two starting pitchers in Hyun-Jin Ryu and Kenta Maeda this summer, with the major names coming back being David Price and Alex Wood. Wood is a significant downgrade from both pitchers, and David Price, who would have helped form the most deadly trio of starting pitchers in the National League, decided to opt-out of the 2020 season. The Dodgers also lost Russell Martin this offseason, a player who while he had become a part-time player, was still valuable calling games as the preferred catcher for some of the staff.
Los Angeles won .654 percent of its games in 2019, a rate that extrapolates out to 39.24 wins in a 60 game season. As alluded to above, however, the Dodgers are no longer truly elite as far as their starting rotation is concerned. Los Angeles is likely to win 35 games at a minimum, but hitting 39 may be more difficult than one would think. 38 wins is doable, but will depend on Kelly Jansen bouncing back to his pre-2019 form. He dealt with injuries and tried to play hurt last season, but will be needed for the Dodgers to win the one or two score games that will help them hit the over. I am betting on Jansen bouncing back which makes the over 37.5 the slight lean. Already at 38.5 wins at FoxBet, there is some value here, making this a future bettors will want to lock in sooner rather than later.
Arizona Diamondbacks: 31.5 wins (o +100/u -124)
2019 win percentage: .525
Starling Marte. Madison Bumgarner. The Arizona Diamondbacks made some massive acquisitions this offseason in Marte and Bumgarner, two players who make the Diamondbacks seem like a value at 31.5 wins. With that being said, it should be noted that Arizona is listed at +900, behind the 30.5 win total San Diego Padres at the same sportsbook (DraftKings). Mike Leake opting out hurts Arizona’s chances to hit 32 wins, as does the expected leap the Padres are projected to make. The Diamondbacks .525 win percentage from 2019 extrapolates out to 31.5 wins over a 60 game season, a number that gives us very little room to work with.
Are Marte and Bumgarner good enough to add an extra win or two? Yes. Are the Padres good enough to win two extra games against Arizona this season? Arizona went 11-8 against San Diego last season but needed to win five of their last six against them to avoid a losing record. This suggests that Arizona may have to make up a win or two elsewhere to hit the 32 number. The under appears to be the smarter play, and the juice on this future (-124 on the under) concurs. However, a look at our live odds page reveals that the Diamondbacks win total sits at 31 at FoxBet, and 30.5 at BetMGM, making BetMGM the preferred book for over bettors who believe Arizona will be at least one win better than a .500 team. 31 wins carry a much higher win probability than 32 or 30 wins, and as such the play here is to eat the juice and take the over 30.5 at BetMGM.
San Francisco Giants: 25.5 wins (o +132/u -165)
2019 win percentage: .475
The San Francisco Giants were one of the most surprising second-half teams of 2019, but are not expected to build on their success this season. Buster Posey opted out of the season, significantly impacting things on both sides of the plate. They lost ace Madison Bumgarner to their division rivals, a loss that is going to be felt in more ways than one this season. They added some solid depth pieces in Hunter Pence, Drew Smyly, Kevin Gausman, and Billy Hamilton, players who while all projected starters, cannot truly be counted as impact additions.
San Francisco finished second in the NL West last season due to their two improbable runs in the second half of 2019. They won 75 percent of their July contests (15-5), and managed to win seven of nine in August, propelling them from the bottom of the league to a team in the Wild Card watch. Their .475 win percentage from last year extrapolates to 28.5 wins in a 60 game season, but no Posey and no Bumgarner suggest that the Giants will not be able to pull off the miraculous runs they managed last season. Under 25.5 seems like the smarter play, but the juice at DraftKings is high enough to force us to take a look at our live odds page (-165). What we see there is that the win total has dropped to a very telling 24 at PointsBet. This combined with the juice and the Giant’s losses help cement the under as the play here. The top odds we can find for the under is at BetMGM where there is only 10 cents juice (-110) compared to -143, -163, or -165 at the other sportsbooks. Take advantage of this total as soon as possible, even if BetMGM moves its juice in line with the others.
Colorado Rockies: 26.5 wins (o -118/u -106)
2019 win percentage: .438
The Colorado Rockies being posted at just 26.5 wins is interesting. They play in an offensive park, and while they lost role players like Chad Bettis and Yonder Alonso, they added an impact player in Matt Kemp. Ian Desmond option out complicates matters, but a .255 hitting outfielder is not hard to replace, his ability on the base paths however will be missed. Their .438 win percentage from a season ago extrapolates out to 26.28 wins over a 60 game season. However, the juice at DraftKings is on the over (-118), and the win total has even been bumped up to 27.5 (-110) at some books such as FoxBet.
Colorado certainly has the bats to hit 27 wins in 60 games (.460), as they are strong from two to six with Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, and Ryan McMahon. It is their pitching that will decide the fate of their season. Kyle Freeland was above average in 2018, and German Marquez has always had impressive stuff. However, much like the rest of the staff, harnessing their talent and locating pitches has often been an issue, one that is exacerbated by playing in a home park like Coors Field. Still, 27 wins is a very fair number for a team that by all accounts underachieved in 2019. Keep it to a small one unit play at DraftKings, but the over is the play for Colorado. Those who do not believe should take their wager to FoxBet where you can play the under at the 27.5 number.
San Diego Padres: 30.5 wins (o -112/u -112)
2019 win percentage: .432
Just one season after finishing as the worst team in the division, Vegas’ oddsmakers are giving the San Diego Padres some massive respect. A 30.5 win total a year after winning just .432 of their games is noteworthy enough, but DraftKings also has the Padres at +750 to win the NL West. This puts them second in odds behind the prohibitive favorites in the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the division. The Padres offense is truly excellent (at least on paper), and can now stand toe to toe with the Dodgers in a slugfest. They have the most complete lineup in the National League and will be a true treat to watch this season. Jurickson Profar, Tommy Pham, and Trent Grisham all project as impact starters for the Padres, and give San Diego impact bats from one to nine. The pitching staff added Zach Davies but still remains questionable behind Chris Paddack and Joey Lucchesi. However, their bullpen remains one of the best in the league thanks to the heroics of 2019’s top closer Kirby Yates.
30.5 is higher than one would hope for the Padres, but it has been made abundantly clear that they are not flying under anyone’s radar this season. The win total has already been moved to 31.5 at PointsBet which necessitates placing action on the Padres immediately before they are bumped up at all sportsbooks. San Diego is going to be one of the most entertaining offenses to watch this season, and have a strong enough overall pitching staff to stay competitive all year long. 31 wins, or finishing one win above .500 should not be a difficult task for a team as talented as the Padres are when healthy.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.