MLB Futures: Best World Series Value Bets (2021)
Earlier in the week, we dove into our favorite futures bets for the 2021 American League pennant. We recommend checking out the article, but we’ll spoil an element of it to say that we didn’t shy away from the heavier favorites for this year’s AL picks.
Now, when it comes to the slate for World Series odds, we’re compelled to go in a different direction. Those chalky AL pennant plays would be reasonable bets to claim the World Series, too. I’m just not as high on the value for the Yankees or White Sox to win it all once they get there.
Some of the rosters in the National League? They’re absolutely stacked. I believe there’s some merit to the notion that whichever club is left standing at the end on the NL side of the bracket will have all the firepower it needs to finish the job. So with that in mind, let’s take a look at some of my favorite values to win the 2021 World Series.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Los Angeles Dodgers (+350)
For me, this spot in the article came down to the Dodgers or Padres. I wasn’t going to go with a cop-out answer and list both teams among my favorite bets because at that point, why even write the article? While both NL West heavyweights boast loaded rosters, I wanted to pin myself down on one of the two emerging for a dream season.
While A.J. Preller and the Padres are to be commended for using the winter to enhance an already-competitive roster with aggressive moves, their time might have been better spent applying for a temporary relocation to a town like Indianapolis or Des Moines. Perhaps then the NL Central would have welcomed them to the division? San Diego has a great club, perhaps the second-best in the entire sport. But playing in the same division as the top dog, the Padres’ route to a World Series title could come down to the randomness of a one-game wild card scenario.
Sure, the Padres could upend Los Angeles out west. But the Dodgers finally got over the hump last year, proving they had learned how to best utilize the elite talent compiled throughout their roster to reach the promised land. And well, they didn’t exactly get worse over the winter. Adding NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer to the best starting rotation in the sport creates an embarrassment of riches. Even if injuries should hinder its pitching, Los Angeles has the depth to weather a few storms as Dustin May, Julio Urias, and Tony Gonsolin continue to establish themselves. In addition to the best pitching, the Dodgers led the majors in runs scored last year and return a lineup filled with former MVPs, current MVP candidates, and legitimate All-Star caliber players. It’s kind of not fair.
When it comes to futures bets, it’s hardly worth getting out of bed for +350 in most circumstances. But this Dodgers team is legitimately bonkers.
Atlanta Braves (+1000)
Choosing to back another NL squad might seem counterintuitive given how strong the Dodgers and Padres look out West. Still, I think you could stack the Braves roster up against anyone in the American League and feel pretty comfortable about your chances. Atlanta scored just one run fewer than the Dodgers last season but was held back on the pitching side with a collective 5.51 ERA from its starters.
To help address the woes in the rotation, Atlanta brought in Charlie Morton as an established veteran to anchor its rising crop of talented starters. The Braves will get a full season from 23-year-old Mike Soroka, who made just three starts last year. They’ll return rookie standout Ian Anderson (1.95 ERA in six starts) and lefty Max Fried (7-0, 2.25 ERA). On paper, that’s a dangerous quartet. See, elite talent wasn’t their problem. Depth was. Two members of the rotation posted ERAs above 8.00. The Braves won’t rely upon them any longer, which should instantly vault the Braves rotation into a strength rather than a weakness. Add a good rotation to a bullpen that finished top five in ERA last season, and suddenly you’ve got a pitching staff on par with some of the best in the game.
Let’s revisit those hitters now. The Braves re-signed Marcell Ozuna, who is a perfect fit for that home ballpark. He’ll continue to mash there. Ozuna is an MVP candidate along with Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, and Ozzie Albies. Loaded lineup.
The NL East should be a competitive division, top to bottom. But the Braves shouldn’t fear anyone in it. Their odds at +1000 seem like a solid return considering the wealth of talent scattered throughout the roster.
Tampa Bay Rays (+2500)
There’s something to be said for teams that have been there before. The Kansas City Royals needed to get their feet wet with a trip to the World Series in 2014 before taking the crown the next year. Though moving Blake Snell would seemingly hinder their chances, I think the Rays are still positioned to be really good.
The Snell deal wasn’t the first domino of a rebuild or anything. It was part of the Rays organizational strategy to maximize their assets within payroll parameters that are more stringent than many of the other highly-capable teams throughout the league. Agree with the move, disagree with it, I could understand the argument either way. Trading an ace of a team that just reached the World Series undoubtedly sends a bad message, but part of me trusts that the Rays front office is smarter than all of us, so it’ll probably work out for them in the end.
So let’s dive into the team they still have in place. It’s really not all that different from 12 months ago when I pegged Tampa Bay as a strong value bet to win the AL pennant. The primary difference now is concrete confidence in some specific pieces of this group rather than the collective belief that the whole will be greater than the sum of its parts. Randy Arozarena is a factor. Wander Franco is coming. Josh Fleming is a legitimate starting arm. The bullpen is comically deep. This coaching staff and front office prioritize the mix-and-match as well as anyone. They should have a good time extracting the most out of this roster in another competitive campaign. At +2500, I think the Rays are an even better value to make some noise this year than they were in 2020.
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Brenden Schaeffer is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Brenden, check out his archive and follow him @bschaeffer12.