MLB Futures Bets: American League Picks & Predictions (2026)
At the beginning of every month, I like to place a few MLB futures bets. We all love trying to cash a big futures ticket before the season starts, but sometimes the best value appears in-season. Below are four American League-themed futures for you to tail.
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MLB Futures Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Detroit Tigers to Win American League Central Division (+700) & Make the Playoffs (+300)
It’s worth taking a shot on the Tigers at this price, especially if they decide to keep Tarik Skubal past the trade deadline. This is one of the weaker divisions in baseball and, to be honest, not a single team jumps off the page.
Cleveland at +115 and the White Sox at +160 don’t offer much betting value. Instead, take a longer-priced shot on either Minnesota or Detroit at +700, where the potential return far outweighs the risk.
We are not exactly sure if Minnesota will be buyers or sellers at the deadline, and I’m assuming the next week or so will determine that. Detroit will likely keep Skubal and go for one last run rather than tear it down.
The underlying numbers suggest the Tigers have been much better than their record. Over the last month, Detroit’s starting rotation owns the best xERA in baseball (2.63), while the bullpen ranks second (3.72 xERA). Offensively, they’ve been respectable, posting a 101 wRC+, which ranks 15th in MLB - essentially league average.
Detroit enters play at 46-53, sitting 6.5 games behind the division-leading White Sox. However, the Pythagorean expectation paints a much different picture. Based on their run differential, the Tigers should be 53-46, a seven-win difference that would have them just half a game out of first place behind a 54-44 White Sox team.
Munetaka Murakami: American League Rookie of the Year (+700)
Last month I wrote about taking a stab on the American League Rookie of the Year market, despite Munetaka Murakami being hurt, and here is why I am doubling down.
Tigers rookie Kevin McGonigle is the odds-on favorite (-280), and I don't have much issue with that. He's been great. That said, I’m not convinced he’ll have enough separation from the field to lock up the award if Murakami returns healthy and finishes the season the way he started it.
This can be some sort of weird hedge on our Tigers futures as well.
If Detroit falls short while the White Sox continue their playoff push and Murakami continues to produce at an elite level, the team success narrative only strengthens his case.
Murakami was one of the most productive hitters in the American League, and if he picks up where he left off, he could end the season with 35-40 home runs, something voters won’t be able to ignore.
New York Yankees to Reach American League Championship Series (+140)
Since June 1st, the Yankees rank 12 out of 15 American League teams in wOBA (.300), wRC+ (91) and runs scored (162), and 14 out of 15 teams in batting average (.226).
May 31st is the last game Aaron Judge played, and we see how big of an impact he had on the lineup.
With a healthy Judge, from the beginning of the season to May 31st, the Yankees ranked first in the American League in home runs, RBI, runs, slugging rate, wOBA and wRC+.
The biggest factor in all of this is the return of Judge. Recent reports point toward a late August or early September return, which would still give him enough time to get back into rhythm before the postseason.
Depending on how the Yankees hold up until then, it will determine if they have a shot at the top seed. If that is the case, they will only have to win one playoff series to reach the American League Championship Series (ALCS), which will make it that much easier to cash this futures bet.
As of today, the Yankees are 55-44, just 1.5 games behind the Rays in both the American League East and the race for the league’s top seed.
Again, based on the Pythagorean expectation, the Yankees have played more like a 59-40 team. At that record, they would actually be four games ahead of Tampa Bay and comfortably in control of the American League’s top spot.
I already hold a futures ticket on the Yankees to win the ALCS, so this play serves as a lower-risk way to invest in one of baseball’s best teams in baseball when fully healthy.