MLB Futures: Pythagorean Win Total Best Bets (2020)

The long-awaited 2020 Major League Baseball season is nearly upon us. But MLB bettors need not wait for the first pitch to get in on the action. Sportsbooks everywhere are offering several different futures wagers for the season, including team season win totals. This form of bet is popular largely because it enables bettors to have action on individual teams that they have strong edges on.

One tool that can be used to find numerical betting value amongst the season win total lines is the sports Pythagorean Formula of Expectation. Developed by Bill James, the formula traces its roots back to baseball itself, although it has since been adapted for use in other sports. The formula (shown in the image below) utilizes a team’s total runs scored and allowed to generate an expected win percentage. This can then be multiplied by the total number of games in a season to project a team’s performance.

Given that regression to the mean is expected, the differential from a team’s Pythagorean win total and actual win total from the previous season can easily be added or subtracted from the betting market win totals. The greater a team’s differential is in either direction, the greater the betting edge. After crunching the numbers on all 30 teams and adjusting for the shortened season, here are some of the Pythagorean Formula’s favorite win totals bets for the 2020 MLB season.

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Milwaukee Brewers Under 30.5 Wins

The Milwaukee Brewers have been a solid ball club for the past few seasons now. However, Pythagorean expectations suggest that they got a bit lucky in 2019. The projected regression of -2.8 games when adjusted to fit a 60-game season is the largest edge of all 30 teams.

Hitting
The Brewers shouldn’t have much trouble offensively in 2020. Christian Yelich is arguably the best player in baseball. Milwaukee also figures to be one of the bigger beneficiaries of the designated hitter being utilized in the National League, as this will allow them to have both Ryan Braun and Justin Smoak in the lineup on a nightly basis.

Pitching
The area of concern for the Brewers is pitching. While the trio of Josh Hader, Corey Knebel, and David Phelps makes for a daunting bullpen, the starting rotation has several question marks. Brandon Woodruff will head the rotation, but the jury is still out on Brett Anderson, Eric Lauer, and Adrian Houser behind him.

Final Thoughts
The Brewers’ pitching concerns and deep division make a sub-.500 finish seem plausible, if not likely.

Chicago Cubs Over 32.5 Wins

While formula is bearish on the Brewers, it is very bullish on a fellow NL Central club — the Chicago Cubs. A positive regression of 2.7 games is projected for them when adjusted to fit a 60-game season.

Hitting
Chicago boasts plenty of talent up and down the lineup again in 2020: Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Wilson Contreras, Jason Heyward. The list goes on and on. With the designated hitter being a National League fixture this season, Kyle Schwarber’s bat can be in the lineup every night as well, and the Cubs won’t have to worry about the liability he poses in the field.

Pitching
The starting rotation should once again prove to be one of the best in the division. Jon Lester and Yu Darvish will look to rebound from shaky 2019 showings. Add in Jose Quintana and Kyle Hendricks, and there is no easy night to face the Cubs. The bullpen will need guys beyond Craig Kimbrel to step up. It could prove to be Chicago’s Achilles’ heel this season.

Final Thoughts
Assuming the bullpen performs adequately enough, the Cubs should have no trouble surpassing their season win total. They should contend for the NL Central crown in the process.

San Francisco Giants Under 25.5 Wins

With longtime skipper Bruce Bochy now retired, Gabe Kapler takes over as manager for the San Francisco Giants. It won’t be an easy first season in the Bay Area, as Kapler inherits a squad devoid of much game-changing talent. Pythagorean expectation projects a regression of -2.4 games for the Giants relative to last season.

Hitting
After a decade that saw San Francisco win three World Series titles, the cupboard has been mostly emptied. The lineup will be further depleted in 2020 with Buster Posey opting out due to COVID-19 concerns and Brandon Belt set to miss time to a foot injury. Wilmer Flores and Evan Longoria are two of the more familiar names, while young players like Mike Yastrzemski and Mauricio Dubon will get much-needed game action.

Pitching
The starting rotation will be led by veterans Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. Both figure to be in line for bounce-back seasons and could become valuable trade chips to aid the rebuilding effort.

Final Thoughts
The Giants will someday contend for championships again, but it won’t be in 2020. Combine a rebuilding focus with a tough schedule against the NL and AL West divisions, and the Giants could conceivably finish with one of the worst records in baseball.

Cincinnati Reds Over 31.5 Wins

Pythagorean expectation gives us another big edge in the NL Central division, and it predicts a positive regression of 1.7 games for the Cincinnati Reds in 2020. The Reds had one of the busiest offseasons in all of baseball. The addition of a couple of veteran bats to complement a pitching staff stocked full of young arms have fans in southwest Ohio excited for the year ahead.

Hitting
The three big free agency additions to the Reds lineup came in the form of Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos, and Japanese sensation Shogo Akiyama. They join mainstays Eugenio Suarez and Joey Votto in giving Cincinnati one of the best lineups from top to bottom that the club has had in years.

Pitching
The Reds’ stength is their pitching. The starting rotation of Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani, and Wade Miley is menacing for opposing teams to say the least. The bullpen, anchored by flame-throwing closer Raisel Iglesias, will benefit from the offseason addition of Pedro Strop.

Final Thoughts
The Reds could emerge as one of the most-improved teams in baseball. It’s fair to expect them to go over their season win total based on roster outlook alone. The fact that Pythagorean expectation supports the over as well only fortifies the play.

Texas Rangers Under 28.5 Wins

The Texas Rangers hovered right around the .500 mark for the duration of last season, and they ultimately finished six games under on the year. The formula projects a regression of -1.3 games for Texas in 2020.

Hitting
The Rangers have talent spread throughout their lineup. Elvis Andrus, Todd Frazier, and Rougned Odor highlight the infield, while slugger Joey Gallo is a threat to go yard every time he comes to the plate. Scoring runs has not been an issue for Texas in recent seasons and doesn’t figure to be again this year.

Pitching
The Rangers’ success could hinge on the performance of the starting rotation. Corey Kluber will need to return to form in a big way, while Mike Minor and Lance Lynn must again outperform expectations as they did a year ago. Closer Jose Leclerc is one of the few locks in a shaky bullpen.

Final Thoughts
The Rangers started the year better than they finished in 2019, so there is the potential for them to surprise in the shortened 2020 season. However, a difficult schedule against the AL and NL West divisions does not work in their favor.

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.