MLB Futures: Will the Cubs or Red Sox Win More Games? (2020)
DraftKings Sportsbook is offering MLB head-to-head bets of who wins more games between specific markets, and the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs pop up on the listed lines quite often. Both teams have lost essential pieces since the conclusion of the 2019 season, and look to make a slightly revamped run at the postseason throughout a 60-game regular season.
The MLB nearly canceled the season, and as a result, COVID 19 has players opting out of the 2020 season. The 2020 MLB schedules set, and with no one from either the Cubs or Red Sox opting out, it’s time for baseball between the two clubs.
Breaking down both the Cubs and Red Sox division schedule, non-conference opponents, batting order, and more, let’s find out who should win more games in 2020 between the two.
Get a sign-up bonus up to $1,000 at DraftKings Sportsbook >>
The Good: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox lost two of their top pitchers in 2019, David Price and Rick Porcello, in addition to their best overall player, Mookie Betts. Porcello gave up 31 home runs last season, the sixth-most in the AL, and Price allowed 109 hits over 107.1 innings with the Red Sox. It could be a blessing in disguise losing the two, allowing Boston to get some younger talent in there.
The Red Sox now build around a plethora of offensive talent with Betts’ departure, and it’s not as bad as it may seem. Boston had the second-highest batting average (.269) in the majors and the third-most runs per game (5.56) in 2019. A lot of their offense remains, starting with SS Xander Bogaerts (.309), 3B Rafael Devers (.311), OF Andrew Benintendi (.266), and DH J.D. Martinez (.304). The addition of Alex Verdugo from the Dodgers to play CF was a pivotal addition to the Red Sox’s bats late in the order.
| 2020 Order/2019 Stats | Batting Avg | Hits / At-Bats | Home Runs | OPS |
| 1. Andrew Benintendi, LF | .266 | 144 / 541 | 13 | .774 |
| 2. Xander Bogaerts, SS | .309 | 190 / 698 | 33 | .939 |
| 3. Rafael Devers, 3B | .311 | 201 / 647 | 32 | .916 |
| 4. J.D. Martinez, DH | .304 | 175 / 575 | 36 | .939 |
| 5. Mitch Moreland, 1B | .252 | 75 / 298 | 19 | .835 |
| 6. Alex Verdugo, CF | .294 | 101 / 343 | 12 | .817 |
| 7. Christian Vazquez, C | .276 | 133 / 482 | 23 | .798 |
| 8. Michael Chavis, 2B | .254 | 88 / 347 | 18 | .766 |
| 9. Jackie Bradley, CF | .225 | 111 / 494 | 21 | .738 |
Betts was one of the most dangerous hitters in the game, and it’ll be difficult to reproduce what he did, but this remains a lineup that’s hard to pitch around. The Red Sox’s best chance at a successful season relies on their offense producing five runs or more per game and beating up on the Blue Jays and Orioles as much as possible in 20 games. Boston needs to be better than his 23-15 record versus the Jays and Orioles if they want to be above .500 in a division with the surging Rays and Yankees.
Boston’s pitching rotation for the 2020 season consists of Eduardo Rodriguez (3.81), Nathan Eovaldi (5.99), Martin Perez (5.12), Ryan Weber (5.09), and Hector Velazquez (5.43) as the likely starters. Chris Sale remains the star of the Red Sox and coming off his worst season as a starter, and he’s out with Tommy John Surgery, leaving the rotation weaker.
Rodriguez was the best pitcher on the Red Sox roster last season, he finished fifth in WAR (5.9), ninth in ERA (3.81), second in wins (19), sixth in win-loss percentage (76%), ninth in strikeouts (213), and first in games started (34). Boston’s rotation has had a history of injury issues, so their bullpen will be a crucial part of their success this season.
Boston’s bullpen returns Matthew Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Brian Johnson, Josh Taylor, Marcus Walden, and Brandon Workman to their bullpen. The same crew from last year, spot starters, and “openers†could be featured in Boston’s 2020 plans with this group.
The Bad: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox sent franchise outfielder Mookie Betts packing to Los Angeles, and starting pitcher David Price followed. Just like that, Boston is an entirely different team, not even mentioning a few other moves, and they’re simply not quite the title contenders they were entering 2019.
Chris Sale is out for the season after a 6-11 season with the worst ERA of his career (4.40) and lowest win total since 2011. He threw a team-high 218 strikeouts in 147.1 innings over 25 games last season. His 218 K’s were eighth-best in the AL, and the third-most hits by pitch (13).
The Red Sox are under new management, Ron Roenicke, and how his leadership affects the team is yet to be seen. He was the manager for the Brewers from 2011 to 2015 going 342-331 (.508%), and this will be a much different team, but still an uphill battle for sure.
The Red Sox were 7-12 versus the Rays and 5-14 versus the Yankees in 2019. They seemed poised for a third-place finish in the AL East if they can’t win more than half of those 10-game series in 2020. Boston’s pitching rotation doesn’t match either squad, but they can contend with their ability to score runs. Neither offense of the three should be taken likely, but Boston’s 23-15 record versus the Blue Jays and Orioles isn’t anything to brag about.
Boston’s 20 game non-division schedule is a nightmare. Outside three games in Miami, they face the Mets and Phillies four times apiece, the Nationals three times, and the Braves six times. A total of 23 games versus the Blue Jays, Marlins, and Orioles sound pretty good in a 60-game schedule, but the remaining 37 will be hell for the Red Sox.
The Red Sox will have 20 games versus the Rays and Yankees, 17 versus the Braves, Mets, Nationals, and Phillies. The Red Sox didn’t play the Braves, Mets, or Nationals in 2019, so those three series will be worth a watch. Overall, Boston’s schedule relies on them going 60% or better in the 23 games versus the three bottom-feeders on their calendar to earn a wildcard spot. If the Red Sox didn’t have six of 12 games versus the Marlins and Orioles to end the season, I don’t think they finish above .500.
Red Sox 2020 Record Prediction: 31-29
The Good: Chicago Cubs
Each team will play 40 of its 60 games versus division opponents, and luckily the Cubs have ten games versus the Pirates. Last season, Chicago had their only winning record in the NL versus Pittsburgh going 11-8. The Cubs went 18-19 versus Milwaukee and St. Louis, and 7-12 versus Cincinnati. A stagnant roster with little modifications outside the DH position benefiting the Cubs this season leaves them on the outside looking in for a wildcard berth and NL Central crown.
Kyle Schwarber will be DH, which after a 38-homer season in 2019, that’s the best-case scenario for Chicago. He won’t be a DH day-in and day-out, but he should see the majority of his starts come there. Albert Almora, Ian Happ, Jason Heyward, Jason Kipnis, and Steven Souza all are options to replace Schwarber in left field when he is DH.
| 2020 Order/2019 Stats | Batting Avg | Hits / At-Bats | Home Runs | OPS |
| 1. Kris Bryant, 3B | .282 | 153 / 543 | 31 | .903 |
| 2. Anthony Rizzo, 1B | .293 | 150 / 512 | 27 | .924 |
| 3. Javier Baez, SS | .281 | 149 / 531 | 29 | .847 |
| 4. Kyle Schwarber, DH | .250 | 132 / 529 | 38 | .871 |
| 5. Wilson Contreras, C | .272 | 98 / 360 | 24 | .888 |
| 6. Jason Heyward, RF | .251 | 129 / 513 | 21 | .772 |
| 7. Ian Happ, LF | .264 | 37 / 140 | 11 | .898 |
| 8. Albert Almora, CF | .236 | 80 / 339 | 12 | .651 |
| 9. Jason Kipnis, 2B | .245 | 112 / 458 | 17 | .715 |
The Cubs lineup as plenty of power outside of Schwarber, Javier Baez (12), Kris Bryant (11), and Anthony Rizzo (11), are all projected by FantasyPros model to record double-digit home runs in the 2020 season. 2B Jason Kipnis (.245), OF Jason Heyward (.251), C Wilson Contreras (.272), and OF Ian Happ (.264) all are reliable options in the lineup to follow the Cubs front-loaded lineup. Their offense averaged 5.02 runs per game in 2019 (10th) and 0.252 batting average (13th) as a unit last year and should see an improvement in 2020.
The pitching rotation opens by Yu Darvish and closes by Craig Kimbrel. On any given night, you could see Darvish, Jose Quintana, Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester, and most likely, Tyler Chatwood as the fifth and final piece oft he starting rotation this season. Darvish is reportedly experimenting with a new pitch he calls the “Supreme,†a two-seam, splitter hybrid. He experimented with it during the team’s intrasquad games, and he’s noted to have around ten different pitches available for the season.
Kimbrel is one of 15 closers that are projected to record double-digit saves (10) over 60 games. All five starters are projected to finish 3-3 or better with ERAs above 4.00 besides Darvish (3.97). Chicago’s bullpen will feature Kyle Ross full-time after posting a 3.54 ERA in 73 appearances last season.
Alec Mills (2.75), Kyle Ryan (3.54), and Rowan Wick (2.43) will be the big three in the bullpen this season, and all received at least 33 innings pitched. Ryan is a left-hander that went 4-2 with 55 hits allowed in 61 innings pitched last season. He’s the most experienced returning to this bullpen with Chatwood making the leap from relief and spot starter to the fifth and final starting pitcher for the Cubs. The club signed Jeremy Jeffries to a relief pitcher role, ramping up for that competitive NL Central.
The Bad: Chicago Cubs
Chicago sported a 36-39 record versus the NL Central in 2019, something to be concerned about, however, it wasn’t as bad as it seemed. The Cubs lost eight of their final 10 NL Central games coming versus the Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates. Chicago was primed for a postseason spot before their season was fumbled away over the final month, and their offseason didn’t help the title chase either.
St. Louis made the most noise during the offseason of the Central Division acquiring Paul Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks, and the Cubs top signees were RP Jeremy Jeffries and OF Steven Souza. Jose Quintana underwent microscopic surgery on his left thumb and most likely won’t be ready for the start of the season. Alec Mills is set to take his place if Quintana misses his first scheduled start.
Chicago lost OF Nicholas Castellanos, SP Cole Hamels, 2B Addison Russell, and released RP Brenden Morrow. The talent that left the Cubs outweighs what came in, but at what cost?
The Cubs are indeed running out of money by keeping their 2016 title team intact, so one of these next few seasons as the team creeps farther away from NL Central contention, the team will shift, and trades will happen. 2020 seems safe for the Kris Bryant’s of the world, but beyond that, who knows? As they sport another run at the division title, how do they stack up in their 20 games outside the central?
The Cubs 20 games versus non-division opponents combine for are a decent but not favorable schedule. The Cubs sport six games versus the city-rival White Sox, four games split home and away versus the Royals, three at the Tigers, two at the Indians, and a five-game homestand in the final two weeks of the season versus the Indians and Twins.
Chicago should finish above .500 in the 60-game schedule, even though their schedule will be a difficult one. Preparation and pitching will be the two most important aspects of any team’s success this season, dealing with the unforeseen future. The Cubs are dominant at home going 207-118 (63.6%) since 2016, and averaging a 51-30 record, the same record they sported in 2019.
The issue with Chicago last season was when they were on the road. The Cubs recorded a 33-48 record away from Wrigley last season, their first losing record on the road since 2014. They closed the 2019 season, losing eight of their last ten games overall, and they were a much better team than their 84-78 record suggested.
Cubs 2020 Record Prediction: 33-27
The Pick
It should be a close call in this betting matchup with both teams barely surpassing .500 in fierce divisions, but the Cubs are who I put my money on. By only two games, I have the Cubs winning more than the Red Sox in 2020, and for – 124 odds, that’s a fair deal. The departure of Betts from the Red Sox allow is a 6.4 combined offensive and defensive WAR, and in a shortened-season, they should feel the effects.
The Cubs, on the other hand, they’re fading away from postseason contention and an NL Central crown by playing the payroll game. While both squads will scrimmage for a wildcard berth at the most, back the Cubs to win more games than the Red Sox. The Red Sox under new management (Ron Roenicke) will have plenty of changes of their
The Cubs non-division schedule won’t be as gruesome as the Red Sox, and even though they have 23 games versus bottom-five teams, the Cubs schedule features 23 games versus the Pirates, Royals, Tigers, and White Sox. That’s a friendly 23-game bunch right there, and I think the Cubs can capitalize and be more competitive in their division than the Red Sox can this year.
The Pick: The Chicago Cubs to Win More Games than the Red Sox (-124) on DraftKings Sportsbook
View the top deposit bonuses and promo codes for each sportsbook >>
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Make an Online Sports Bet — or head to more advanced strategy — like How to Set and Maintain Your Sports Betting Budget — to learn more.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @VaughnDalzell.