MLB Futures: Will the Rangers or Blue Jays Win More Games? (2020)
DraftKings Sportsbook is offering MLB head-to-head bets of who wins more games between specific markets, and the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers pop up on the listed lines quite often. Both teams have lost essential pieces since the conclusion of the 2019 season, and look to make a slightly revamped run at the postseason throughout a 60-game regular season.
The MLB nearly canceled the season, and as a result, COVID-19 has players opting out of the 2020 season. The 2020 MLB schedules set, and with no one from either the Blue Jays or Rangers opting out, it’s time for baseball between the two clubs.
Breaking down both the Blue Jays and Rangers division schedules, non-conference opponents, batting order, and more. Let’s find out who should win more games in 2020 between the two.
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The Good: Texas Rangers
The Rangers went from 67-95 and last-place in the AL West in 2018, and in 2019, Texas finished third with a 78-84 record. Texas has shown significant improvement in that one season, and now they’ve added SP Corey Kluber, SP Jordan Lyles, SP Kyle Gibson, 3B Todd Frazier, and C Robinson Chirinos during free agency. This a reloaded team and they’re making the push for AL West contention with the Oakland Athletics for the runner-up to the Houston Astros.
Last season, Mike Minor and Lance Lynn were the only two starting pitchers that surpassed 200 innings pitched, combining for a 30-21 record. Their bullpen brings back key 2019 contributors, closer Jose Leclerc, RP Jessie Chavez, and RP Rafael Montero. Leclerc converted 14 of 18 saves in 2019 on 68.2 innings pitched, and he split closing duties occasionally with Shawn Kelley, who converted 11 of 15 with Texas.
Kelley is still a free agent, and Leclerc should get full-time, but he won’t be ready for the July 24 date against the Colorado Rockies after his camp arrival, and the birth of his child delayed training. The rest of the bullpen has had some small issues, such as Brett Martin testing positive for COVID-19 during screening, and fellow reliever Joely Rodriguez injured his left lat muscle during the hiatus. Texas will have to bring the bats out early with these pitching problems.
Per RotoChamp, the Rangers’ batting order looks pretty solid for the year, and they are most likely slating Frazier in the clean-up spot. The six through nine spots for Texas could need far more consistency, but players like Joey Gallo and Danny Sanatana could carry this lineup.
| 2020 Order/2019 Stats | Batting Avg | Hits / At-Bats | Home Runs | OPS |
| 1. Shin-Soo Choo, DH | .265 | 149 / 563 | 24 | .826 |
| 2. Elvis Andrus, SS | .275 | 165 / 600 | 12 | .707 |
| 3. Joey Gallo, RF | .253 | 61 / 241 | 22 | .986 |
| 4. Todd Frazier, 1B | .251 | 112 / 447 | 21 | .772 |
| 5. Danny Santana, CF | .283 | 134 / 474 | 28 | .857 |
| 6. Nick Solak, LF | .293 | 34 / 116 | 5 | .884 |
| 7. Rougned Odor, 2B | .205 | 107 / 522 | 30 | .721 |
| 8. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 3B | .238 | 48 / 202 | 1 | .620 |
| 9. Robinson Chirinos, C | .238 | 87 / 366 | 17 | .790 |
Elvis Andrus was one of the most consistent hitters for the Rangers all last season, and a guy like Rougned Odor is a heavy-hitter, but also led the team in strikeouts with 178 to 107 hits. Nick Solak will be an instrumental part of the unit as a potential final piece of the outfield and earning his first full season out in left field with Texas.
Their schedule will feature 10 games versus the Mariners, 10 more versus the Angels, three at the Giants, and four versus San Diego to make up 27 of their 60 games. 20 more will come versus the Astros and Athletics, and the final 13 will be versus the Dodgers (3), Diamondbacks (4), and two three-game series with the Rockies (6).
The Bad: Texas Rangers
Last season the Rangers recorded the 24th ranked ERA (5.06) and tied 21st with 33 saves. The pitching rotation surrender the eighth-most home runs in 2019 (241) and 26th ranked opponent batting average (.269). Texas signing three starting pitchers certainly helps their rotation, joining Lance Lynn and Mike Minor as the core five.
The Rangers four starters with at least 122 innings pitched from a season ago combined for 101 home runs allowed and gave up at least 21 each. Both Minor (200) and Lynn (246) recorded 200 strikeouts but combined for 51 of those 101 home runs allowed while starting in 65 games altogether. Their pitching should see some improvement with Kluber, Lyles, and Gibson joining the rotation, but the hitting is need of serious renovation.
Texas wasn’t a premier batting team in 2019, finishing 12th in runs (810), 13th in RBIs (765), T-16th in home runs (223), 16th in OPS (.750), 17th in batting average (.248), and 17th in hits (1,374). Adding Todd Frazier and Robinson Chirinos should give the Rangers a boost, but realistically speaking, not much from the 34 and 35-year-olds.
The Rangers have a tough five-game stretch to start the season and a six-game stretch in seven days that includes three versus the Dodgers, then three in Houston. Texas will play the Astros seven of their final 13 games to end the season, and that could be the difference in who wins more games between Texas and Toronto.
Rangers 2020 Record Prediction: 27-33
The Good: Toronto Blue Jays
One of the best moves of the offseason was Toronto acquiring Hyun-Jin Ryu from the Dodgers. Ryu was a beast in 2019, finishing first in the entire MLB with a 2.36 ERA, T-18th in wins (14), and 30th in innings pitched (182.2). He was an instrumental member of the Dodgers starting rotation, and the Blue Jays added Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson, and Clay Buchholz to the rotation depth during the offseason as well.
Neither pitcher is expected to make much of an impact, certainly not to the ability Ryu will. Still, with Matt Shoemaker and Trent Thorton as your returning starting rotation, you need desperate help. Ken Giles returns as the closer after converting 23 of 24 opportunities in 53 innings with a 1.86 ERA. Their relief pitchers aren’t anything to brag home about, but Sam Gaviglio returns with a team-high 95.2 innings pitched, and the fourth-most games played (52).
The Blue Jays batting order is going to be an exciting one this year, and not just because of Guerrero Jr. Bichette has emerged as a bright young talent, and all across this lineup, you can see there’s home run potential form nearly every slot. The batting averages aren’t very respectable for most, so my thoughts on this Blue Jays’ offensive season will be half of the games being ridiculously high-scoring and half-barely scoring.
| 2020 Order/2019 Stats | Batting Avg | Hits / At-Bats | Home Runs | OPS |
| 1. Bo Bichette, SS | .311 | 61 /191 | 11 | .930 |
| 2. Cavan Biggio, 2B | .234 | 83 / 354 | 16 | .793 |
| 3. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., LF | .277 | 87 / 314 | 20 | .869 |
| 4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., DH | .272 | 126 / 464 | 15 | .772 |
| 5. Travis Shaw, 3B | .157 | 36 / 230 | 7 | .551 |
| 6. Randal Grichuk, CF | .232 | 136 / 586 | 31 | .738 |
| 7. Teoscar Hernandez, RF | .230 | 96 / 417 | 26 | .778 |
| 8. Rowdy Tellez, 1B | .227 | 84 / 370 | 21 | .742 |
| 9. Danny Jansen, C | .207 | 72 / 347 | 13 | .640 |
The pitching rotation should be improved and sturdy enough to handle their own, but certain individual batters will need to step up their game. Shaw had one of his worst seasons as a pro and now expected to play 3B so that Guerrero Jr. can play DH. Teoscar Hernandez and Randal Grichuk were crushing balls left and right last season with 57 combine homers, but their batting averages didn’t exceed .230.
Toronto finished last in the MLB with a .236 batting average as a team but hit the ninth-most home runs (247). It’s going to be a learning year for Toronto amid this pandemic, but we should see some young talent make some exciting plays in 2020 out of the Blue Jays organization, led by Guerrero Jr.
The Bad: Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto is dealing with a lot right now, including where they will play their home games, just days before the season begins. Canada blocked them from playing at the Rogers Centre, and cities such as Baltimore and Buffalo have stepped up in an attempt to persuade the Blue Jays to fly south. Baltimore already has the Orioles, but Camden Parks is beautiful and the scheduling would work pretty well considering they both play in the AL East.
With the home field being figured out, Toronto’s outlook is not looking great, especially with their scheduling. The 60-game schedule is ridiculous, and this is going to be a short-learning season for the Blue Jays youngsters. Toronto will play its 10 games against the Yankees in the last month of the season, 10 versus the Rays spread out throughout the season, and 10 versus the Red Sox, who still shouldn’t be slept on.
The Blue Jays also have games versus the Braves (3), Mets (3) Nationals (4), and Phillies (6). Their schedule is as rocky as it gets in a tough division too. Look for Toronto to be far more competitive in 2021, and finish far under the Rangers win total.
Take into account, they finished last in the MLB in batting average, 21st in opponent’s batting average (.259), and allowed the 11th-most earned runs (767); they won’t improve enough to make a significant difference than their 67-95 record in 2019.
Blue Jays 2020 Record Prediction: 23-37
The Pick
Texas is currently the better team, and with the uncertainty of where Toronto will play, plus not having an as experienced roster like the Rangers, gives Texas the advantage for the bet. At -130 odds, that’s a fair price for the Rangers, and their free-agent signings give them enough of a boost to go 30-30 or slightly better at best.
In no way or form can I see Toronto going .500 or better this season, and with their schedule being vigorously more robust, back the Rangers. The Blue Jays have their work cut out for them in the AL East, and I’d expect a fourth-place finish from Toronto, and a third-place for Texas in their division.
The Pick: The Texas Rangers to win More Games than the Toronto Blue Jays (-130) on DraftKings Sportsbook
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Vaughn Dalzell is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Vaughn, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @VaughnDalzell.