MLB Home Run Derby Round 1 Winner Odds & Picks (2022)
We have completed the first half of the MLB season, and we have a really exciting set of eight of the league’s best sluggers participating in the 2022 MLB Home Run Derby. Of course, two-time defending champion Pete Alonso is a favorite in the first round and for the whole event, but let’s find some value in some of the other matchups on the board.
Juan Soto (-180) over Jose Ramirez
Juan Soto fit right in during last year’s Home Run Derby. Soto hit 46 Home Runs and lost by one homer to eventual champion Pete Alonso in the semi-finals. This made me feel like he could have beaten him, given that he had just come off a double-overtime win over Shohei Ohtani. He also broke the record for the longest HR hit at 520 feet. Jose Ramirez has yet to participate in a Derby to this point, and it seems like only a special few can come in with inexperience and really show out. I also think that the fact that Ramirez has not shown the ability to hit a homer over 450′ to this point may do him in.
Jose Ramirez may be known for his team-friendly contracts and flying under the radar, but this man can hit. After a relatively slow power output start to his career, he has been a top-ten home run hitter in all of baseball. His total is actually tied with that of fellow All-Star Giancarlo Stanton. Juan Soto hasn’t had many opportunities to strut his stuff in a lowly season for the Nationals, but don’t let the peripherals fool you. This is an ELITE player. Soto is a strong favorite to advance, for good reason, and I think is the biggest lock to move on to the next round of anyone participating.
Corey Seager (-105) over Julio Rodriguez
Julio Rodriguez showed flashes of his personality along with his massive potential while playing in the minor leagues, and this is his first opportunity to show out to the public. With that being said, he should be extremely fun to watch, but I am going with Corey Seager.
I think Julio is going to be an extremely popular sleeper pick, but we have to remember how comfortable Seager is in this ballpark and that he has done this before. Seager played his first six seasons in Dodger Blue and hit 104 homers while playing his role as an incredibly skilled and clutch hitter who was an All-Star twice and won World Series MVP for them. The power has always been there, but he knew his role and also dealt with some injuries. He already has 22 homers this year, and he is poised to be a sneaky play in any round he makes it to.
In his lone Derby appearance, he hit a very respectable fifteen homers in the first round. Unfortunately for him, he got outdueled by Mark Trumbo’s 16. Only Giancarlo Stanton had more than either of them in that year’s first round. Julio Rodriguez is looking to be the first rookie to win the Home Run Derby since Aaron Judge in 2017 (and just the third all-time).
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