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MLB Home Run Picks: Willy Adames, Christian Yelich, Kyle Schwarber (10/3)

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Let’s take a look at our top picks to go yard in tonight’s MLB playoff games.

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Today’s Best To Hit A Home Run Prop Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Willy Adames (+380) & Christian Yelich (+450)

The Brewers captured the NL Central Division and the third overall seed, which means they’ll host the sixth-seeded Diamondbacks in the Wild Card round. Milwaukee opts for Corbin Burnes in the opener while Arizona counters with Brandon Pfaadt. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET from American Family Field in Milwaukee, WI. 

Basically, every team that’s participating in the Wild Card round is rolling with their best one-two punch for the first two games. That isn’t the case with the Snakes, who will save the duo of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly for later in the series.

Instead, Torey Lovullo will ride with rookie right-hander Brandon Pfaadt. The 24-year-old posted a 3-9 record in the regular season to go along with a 5.72 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Pfaadt was prone to giving up the long ball as his regular season HR/9 rate was 2.06. To put that into perspective, the closest Game 1 probable starters are Pablo Lopez and Jesus Luzardo, who are tied with 1.11 HR/9 rates. 

Since Pfaadt is a rookie, we don’t have much head-to-head data to work with as he didn’t face the Crew this season. The only batter he has faced is Carlos Santana, who is 1-for-2 (.500) with a single and a walk. Santana is +425 to go deep tonight if you want to take a shot. 

I’ll instead ride with the top two home run hitters on Milwaukee’s roster, which are Willy Adames (24 HR) and Christian Yelich (19 HR). The duo saw 20 and 16 of their homers come off of right-handers, respectively. Yelich terrorized righties this season, posting an .882 OPS. These postseason games can often come down to one swing of the bat, and considering we have a starter with an HR/9 rate north of 2.00, I’ll lock in these two sluggers.

Kyle Schwarber (+390)

The Marlins took advantage of the Diamondbacks’ season-ending four-game slide and jumped them in the standings. Their prize is a trip to the City of Brotherly Love, where they’ll take on the 2022 NL Pennant-winning Phillies. It is worth noting the Fish won the season series 7-6 against the divisional rival, so maybe there’s a chance they pull off the upset. Game 1 is slated for 8:08 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA. 

Jesus Luzardo gets the nod for the Marlins in Game 1, while the Phillies counter with Zack Wheeler. As I noted above, Luzardo owns a 1.11 HR/9 rate this season. He turned in a really solid season, posting a 3.63 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, which translated to a 10-9 record. However, it’s his road splits that have me worried here. The southpaw owns a 4.48 ERA away from the 305 and opponents are hitting .276 against him. 

As for the head-to-head numbers, the Phillies are slashing .211/.247/.355 against Luzardo with three home runs. Two of the tanks belong to Edmundo Sosa while the other came off the bat of Kyle Schwarber. I’m riding with Schwarbs considering the powerful season he just had. The slugger mashed 47 home runs this year and posted an .817 OPS. He’s the epitome of the modern-day hitter, typically hitting a moon shot, walking, or striking out. Finally, Schwarber is a guy who shows up in the postseason and he launched six big flies during last year’s run to the World Series.

Today’s (10/3) MLB Wild Card Schedule

  • Texas Rangers (5) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (4) – 3:08 p.m. ET 
  • Toronto Blue Jays (6) vs. Minnesota Twins (3) – 4:38 p.m. ET 
  • Arizona Diamondbacks (6) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (3) – 7:08 p.m. ET
  • Miami Marlins (5) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (4) – 8:08 p.m. ET


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