MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Friday (4/11)
The 2025 MLB season rolls on with another full slate of games on Friday. With 15 matchups to choose from, let's dive into the top MLB home run picks and predictions for today's action.
Betting on specific players to hit a home run is a fun and alternative way to get action on MLB games. The plus-money odds can provide bigger payouts if you nail the right guy to go yard. Let's focus on a couple of MLB players worth backing to hit a homer on Friday, April 11th.
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Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
Brendan Donovan (+900 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Unless you're a diehard Philadelphia Phillies fan or a sports bettor, Aaron Nola's struggles with the long ball may surprise you. The Phillies' star righty gave up 30 home runs last season, tied for the fifth-most in baseball. Two years ago, he allowed 32 home runs (seventh).
Nola's struggles to keep the ball in the yard have already started this season. He's coughed up four homers through two starts, allowing a pair of bombs in each outing. As good as he is, Nola is always prone to a solo home run or two.
Let's fade Nola today with two other stats/trends going against him as well. He's regularly been worse on the road with a career 3.22 ERA at home and a 4.24 ERA away from Philadelphia. In his career in Atlanta, Nola has a 4.31 ERA with 16 homers allowed over 16 starts. He's also slightly worse against left-handed hitters than righties.
Enter Brendan Donovan. The St. Louis Cardinals' lefty-hitting second baseman is on fire to begin the season with a .375 batting average and .978 OPS. Donovan has never been a huge power guy (14 home runs last year), but he's seeing the ball extremely well right now. He also has two homers in 12 games this year, for what it's worth.
Donovan is hitting .459 with a .622 slugging rate against right-handed pitchers this year. Last season, all 14 of his homers came against righties. Meanwhile, 18 of Nola's 30 home runs allowed last year were to lefty batters. The odds for Donovan to hit a home run are too high and worth a dart throw.
Tyler Soderstrom (+420 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Athletics' home ballpark in Sacramento is proving to be a hitter-friendly environment. There has been an average of 11.7 runs per game scored at Sutter Health Park so far this season, with at least nine runs in five of the six contests. It's a small sample size, but this stadium should favor hitters moving forward.
On that note, the Athletics are getting a potential breakout season from Tyler Soderstrom right now. The third-year first baseman is hitting .354 with a whopping 1.197 OPS through 13 games. He's also smacked six home runs already. Soderstrom will likely cool off sometime soon, but let's ride the hot hand while we can.
Soderstrom will face New York Mets starter Griffin Canning, who brings a mixed bag to the table. On the one hand, Canning is having a solid season with a 2.79 ERA through two starts. Yet, the right-hander is bound to regress, and his previous home run issues are hard to ignore.
Canning coughed up 31 home runs in 32 starts last year, which was tied for the second-most in the league. He also had a 5.19 ERA a season ago. Canning struggled on the road as well with a 6.06 ERA and 18 homers allowed across 14 road starts.
Soderstrom can stay hot in this matchup. All six of the left-handed hitter's home runs have come against right-handed pitching. Meanwhile, Canning was slightly worse against lefty batters last season.