MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Friday (4/18)
The 2025 MLB season rolls on with another full slate of games on Friday. With 15 matchups and all 30 teams to choose from, let’s dive into the top MLB home run picks and predictions for today’s action.
Betting on specific players to hit a home run is a fun and alternative way to get action on MLB games. The plus-money odds can provide bigger payouts if you nail the right guy to go yard. Let’s focus on a couple of MLB players worth backing to hit a homer on Friday, April 18.
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Friday's Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Francisco Lindor (+500)
Miles Mikolas has always been prone to home runs. The St. Louis Cardinals’ starting pitcher gave up 26 homers in 32 starts last year. He's also allowed at least 25 bombs in four straight full seasons. The right-hander pitches to contact and has never been a big strikeout guy.
Mikolas enters today's start against the New York Mets a bit overdue to be taken deep. Through three starts this season, he's yet to allow a homer but has given up 14 runs in 13 innings. A home run or two could be coming tonight on the road based on his track record.
The Mets have a few players to choose from. Pete Alonso and Juan Soto are definite options, but let's roll with Francisco Lindor. The switch-hitter would hit lefty in this matchup against Mikolas. Meanwhile, lefties have hammered the Cardinals’ right-hander to a .391 batting average this season.
As for Lindor, he's due to go yard. He smacked 33 homers last year and has 30+ bombs in five of his last seven full seasons. Yet, Lindor has only one home run so far this year. It's a good spot for him to ramp up the power. In 2024, Lindor hit 22 homers against right-handed pitching.
Freddie Freeman (+480)
A few years ago, betting on Jacob deGrom to allow a home run would usually be a losing proposition. This current version of deGrom, though, simply isn't the same dominant pitcher he once was. The Texas Rangers starter has allowed two homers in back-to-back games coming into today's outing.
Through three starts, deGrom has a 4.30 ERA and a 6.21 FIP. It's a small sample size, but there are some other worrisome trends. He's allowed a career-high 11.6% barrel rate to go with a career-low 20.6% strikeout rate. Again, it's early, but deGrom's struggles are glaring for a guy who's battled injuries for the past five years.
All four of deGrom's home runs allowed this year have come to left-handed hitters, who are slugging a whopping .710 against him. The Los Angeles Dodgers boast multiple power bats who can take advantage of this matchup. Shohei Ohtani is an obvious choice, but let's focus on Freddie Freeman.
The Dodgers first baseman has three home runs in 10 games so far this season. He's hitting .333 with a .733 slugging percentage and 1.145 OPS. Freeman has three straight multi-hit games coming into today and just hit a homer last time out.
Freeman crushes right-handed pitching. Last year, he had a .300 batting average, .503 slugging rate, .904 OPS, and .203 ISO in the split, with 15 of his 22 homers coming against righties.
This season, he's hitting .429 with a .952 slugging rate and .524 ISO vs. right-handers, with all three of his homers as well. Plus, Freeman has taken deGrom deep three times in their career head-to-head matchups.