MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Friday (5/16)
The 2025 MLB season rolls on with another full slate of games on Friday. With 15 matchups and all 30 teams to choose from, let’s dive into the top MLB home run picks and predictions for Friday’s action.
Betting on specific players to hit a home run is a fun and alternative way to get action on MLB games. The plus-money odds can provide bigger payouts if you nail the right guy to go yard. Let’s focus on a couple of MLB players worth backing to hit a homer on Friday, May 16th.
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Friday's Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kerry Carpenter (+235)
Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Bowden Francis has struggled with the long ball this season. He's allowed 12 home runs, the second-most in the Majors, through eight starts so far. The right-hander's 2.59 HR/9 rate is also the worst among all MLB starting pitchers.
Francis has a poor 5.40 ERA this year, while his 6.25 xERA and 6.35 FIP are even worse. At home, he's sporting a 6.52 ERA with eight homers allowed across four starts. Last year, Francis gave up 13 home runs in his 13 starts.
The Toronto starter also has some worrisome advanced metrics. Francis has a high 50.4% hard-hit rate (fifth percentile) and a 12% barrel rate (13th) with a low 35.3% ground ball rate (18th). That combination is directly correlated to allowing home runs.
We have a few Detroit Tigers to choose from, but Kerry Carpenter especially stands out. The lefty-hitting outfielder simply crushes right-handed pitching. He has a .319 batting average, .560 slugging percentage and .918 OPS versus righties this season. Plus, seven of his nine homers have come against right-handers.
Carpenter hammered righty pitchers last year as well. He had a .305 batting average, .631 slugging rate and .994 OPS in the split, with 17 of his 18 homers coming against righties. The Tigers outfielder also comes in hitting well lately, batting .375 over the last seven games. He has four homers over the past 15 contests.
Meanwhile, Francis has given up nine of his 12 home runs to left-handed hitters this season. He's also allowing a .568 slugging percentage to lefties. The matchup is a favorable one for Carpenter to go deep.
Jose Ramirez (+300)
We never want to put too much stock in batter vs. pitcher data when making home run picks. However, sometimes those stats line up perfectly with other notable trends. That's the case today when Jose Ramirez faces Brady Singer in Cincinnati.
First off, Ramirez is on fire lately with a .450 batting average and three home runs over his last six games. The Cleveland Guardians star also boasts a .372 batting average and a 1.122 OPS over the past two weeks. He has eight homers on the season, with six of those coming against right-handed pitchers.
Ramirez has had a ton of success against Singer. In 35 career at-bats, he's batting .444 (12-for-27) with a 1.423 OPS and three home runs in this matchup. Meanwhile, Singer has a rough 4.97 ERA this season with 11 runs allowed over his last two starts combined. He's coughed up a homer in six straight outings as well.
The switch-hitting Ramirez will be batting from the left side against the right-handed Singer. That's notable because Singer is a bit worse against lefty hitters with a .482 slugging rate and .798 OPS allowed this season. Last year, he allowed a .488 slugging rate and .855 OPS to lefties compared to a .311 slugging rate and .563 OPS to righties.
Then we have Ramirez, who has good splits against right-handed pitchers. Six of his eight homers this year have come against righties. Last season, 25 of his 39 bombs came in the split. Plus, he'll benefit from playing in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park today.