MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Friday (5/2)
The 2025 MLB season rolls on with another full slate of games on Friday. With 15 matchups and all 30 teams to choose from, let’s dive into the top MLB home run picks and predictions for today’s action.
Betting on specific players to hit a home run is a fun and alternative way to get action on MLB games. The plus-money odds can provide bigger payouts if you nail the right guy to go yard. Let’s focus on a couple of MLB players worth backing to hit a homer on Friday, May 2nd.
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Friday's Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ben Rice (+360)
The New York Yankees led baseball in home runs last year, and they're doing it again this season. The Yankees' 53 homers are tops in the MLB so far. Aaron Judge is the headliner, but let's target a different name for tonight's home run pick.
Ben Rice has eight home runs on the year, only trailing Judge for New York's team lead. The first baseman's early-season breakout also includes a .958 OPS. Rice just hit two homers on Tuesday, and he's now gone deep six times over his last 16 games started.
Tonight presents another opportunity for Rice to leave the yard. Tampa Bay Rays starter Ryan Pepiot has allowed eight home runs this season, tied for the third-most in the Majors. He also has the fourth-highest HR/9 rate (2.12) and HR/FB percentage (22.2%) among all qualified starting pitchers.
It's a good matchup for the left-handed hitter Rice against the right-handed Pepiot. Against righties this season, Rice is hitting .323 with a .692 slugging percentage and 1.135 OPS. Six of his eight home runs have come against right-handers as well. Plus, his .369 ISO in the split ranks seventh among qualified hitters.
When Pepiot faced the Yankees two starts ago, he coughed up a pair of home runs to left-handed hitters (Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger). Let's hope Rice adds his name to that list in tonight's game.
Vinnie Pasquantino (+400)
Baltimore Orioles starter Dean Kremer is one of the more fadeable pitchers right now. Banking on shaky outings from Kremer will be a profitable strategy more often than not, whether you're betting on his opponents to win or pinpointing player props. Let's do the latter today.
Kremer has allowed seven home runs with an ugly 7.04 ERA through six starts this season. His 2.05 HR/9 rate is the fifth-highest among qualified MLB starters so far. Plus, the Orioles' right-hander is allowing a hefty 12.6% barrel rate (14th percentile) with just a 15.6% whiff rate (third). That's a rough combination of advanced stats.
Home runs have been an issue for Kremer throughout his career. He allowed 18 homers over 24 starts last year and 27 bombs in 32 starts in 2023. He's due to give up one today after avoiding it last time out.
The Kansas City Royals aren't a notable power-hitting team, but this matchup is too tasty to ignore. Let's back Vinnie Pasquantino to take Kremer deep. The lefty-swinging first baseman has slumped to begin the season, hitting just .185 with a .582 OPS. Yet, the power is still there.
Pasquantino's four home runs lead the Royals this season. He’s homered twice in the past five games, including two days ago. Pasquantino is also better against right-handed pitching, with 36 of his 42 career homers coming against righties (85.7%). This year, three of his four home runs have been against right-handers.
Meanwhile, Kremer is allowing a .326 batting average, .581 slugging percentage and .933 OPS to left-handed hitters this season. He's also allowed five of his seven homers to lefty hitters. The right-hander has been worse in this split throughout his career.